Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Real Sociedad v Celta de Vigo · La Liga · Thursday 3 September at 20:00 · 176 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Ionuț RaduGKCelta de Vigo~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.17/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Saves: career 3.04/90 over 38 apps → model prices 3.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Álex RemiroGKReal Sociedad~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.21/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.55/90 over 73 apps → model prices 2.38/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 73 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Takefusa KuboFWDReal Sociedad~65 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.61/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.80/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.73/90 over 50 apps → model prices 2.83/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.68/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mikel OyarzabalFWDReal Sociedad~72 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.70/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.23/90 over 60 apps → model prices 2.45/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.15/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 60 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ilaix MoribaMIDCelta de Vigo~67 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.25/90 over 54 apps → model prices 2.36/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.02/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.44/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jon AramburuDEFReal Sociedad~75 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.49/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.57/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.99/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.86/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gonçalo GuedesFWDReal Sociedad~57 min · starts 69%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 69% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.64/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.22/90 over 26 apps → model prices 2.42/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Brais MéndezMID~59 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.16/90 over 43 apps → model prices 2.32/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.62/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.84/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.27/90 over 43 apps → model prices 2.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yoel LagoDEFCelta de Vigo~78 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~8 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.35/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.06/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.29/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.93/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Igor ZubeldiaDEFReal Sociedad~82 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.36/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.57/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.38/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ferran JutglàFWDCelta de Vigo~55 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.63/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.87/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.34/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.39/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.12/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Borja IglesiasFWDCelta de Vigo~54 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.58/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.61/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.81/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.05/90 over 50 apps → model prices 2.07/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luka SucicMIDReal Sociedad~56 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.74/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.01/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.98/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.67/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ander BarrenetxeaFWDReal Sociedad~51 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.32/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.70/90 over 42 apps → model prices 2.06/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.98/90 over 42 apps → model prices 2.05/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 42 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Iago AspasFWDCelta de Vigo~47 min · starts 48%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 48% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.12/90 over 34 apps → model prices 2.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.55/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.50/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.74/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Williot SwedbergFWDCelta de Vigo~43 min · starts 46%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 46% of his matches (~63 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.57/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.73/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.12/90 over 36 apps → model prices 2.39/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.74/90 over 36 apps → model prices 2.00/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jon GorrotxategiMIDReal Sociedad~74 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.29/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.08/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.54/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Orri ÓskarssonFWDReal Sociedad~41 min · starts 40%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 40% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.69/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.00/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.81/90 over 24 apps → model prices 2.43/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Fran BeltránMID~67 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.51/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.24/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.86/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jon PachecoDEFReal Sociedad~61 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.18/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.43/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.14/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yangel HerreraMIDReal Sociedad~44 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~44 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.39/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.67/90 over 7 apps → model prices 2.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.41/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.67/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.99/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Duje Caleta-CarDEF~80 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.34/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.26/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.55/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Javi RodríguezDEFCelta de Vigo~74 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.91/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.24/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.44/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Miguel RománMIDCelta de Vigo~69 min · starts 74%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 74% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.24/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.73/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.29/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pablo DuránFWDCelta de Vigo~50 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.46/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.78/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.71/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.87/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aritz ElustondoDEF~57 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.27/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.64/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.36/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Damián RodríguezMIDCelta de Vigo~57 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.33/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.53/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.71/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Javi LópezDEFReal Sociedad~67 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.31/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.30/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.70/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sergio GómezDEFReal Sociedad~76 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.19/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.52/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.50/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jon MartínDEFReal Sociedad~83 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~51 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.34/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.69/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.09/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Carlos SolerMIDReal Sociedad~71 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.90/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.16/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.39/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Javi RuedaDEFCelta de Vigo~54 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.46/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.18/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.69/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.42/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Beñat TurrientesMIDReal Sociedad~48 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.65/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.98/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.47/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Carl StarfeltDEFCelta de Vigo~80 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.19/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.46/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marcos AlonsoDEFCelta de Vigo~86 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.80/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.97/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Arsen ZakharyanMIDReal Sociedad~26 min · starts 20%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~26 minutes: starts 20% of his matches (~57 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.37/90 over 5 apps → model prices 2.90/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.69/90 over 5 apps → model prices 2.02/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.00/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pablo MarínMIDReal Sociedad~48 min · starts 51%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 51% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.16/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.19/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.31/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hugo ÁlvarezFWDCelta de Vigo~54 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.06/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.03/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.13/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sergio CarreiraDEFCelta de Vigo~76 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.85/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.80/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Arkaitz MariezkurrenaFWD~24 min · starts 10%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~24 minutes: starts 10% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 3.40/90 over 3 apps → model prices 2.53/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.70/90 over 3 apps → model prices 2.77/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.57/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 3 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 3 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Manu FernándezDEFCelta de Vigo~54 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.25/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.88/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Carlos DomínguezDEFCelta de Vigo~66 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.72/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.21/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.51/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aihen MuñozDEFReal Sociedad~47 min · starts 52%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 52% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.57/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.57/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.04/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jones El-AbdellaouiFWDCelta de Vigo~30 min · starts 18%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~30 minutes: starts 18% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.21/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.27/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.74/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.64/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mihailo RisticDEF~46 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~64 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.42/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.70/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.42/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.