Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
RB Leipzig v Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga · Saturday 29 August at 14:30 · 202 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Moritz NicolasGK~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.06/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Saves: career 3.86/90 over 53 apps → model prices 3.93/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lois OpendaFWD~72 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 4.10/90 over 35 apps → model prices 3.43/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.41/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.68/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.21/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.37/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rômulo José Cardoso da CruzFWD~74 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.80/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.70/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.80/90 over 30 apps → model prices 3.22/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.09/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Maarten VandevoordtGK~82 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~43 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.08/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.74/90 over 18 apps → model prices 2.81/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Antonio Eromonsele Nordby NusaFWD~64 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.39/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.43/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.93/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.51/90 over 56 apps → model prices 3.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tim KleindienstFWD~81 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~4 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.24/90 over 34 apps → model prices 2.28/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.17/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.76/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.92/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Haris TabakovicFWD~76 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.83/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.72/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.49/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.48/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.38/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Franck HonoratFWD~73 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.30/90 over 47 apps → model prices 2.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.46/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.40/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.50/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Conrad HarderFWD~32 min · starts 28%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~32 minutes: starts 28% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 3.18/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 9.66/90 over 29 apps → model prices 4.80/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.12/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.75/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.98/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Fouls: career 5.61/90 over 29 apps → model prices 2.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Robin HackFWD~61 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.49/90 over 41 apps → model prices 2.42/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.13/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.89/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.93/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 41 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Johan BakayokoFWD~39 min · starts 40%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 40% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.37/90 over 20 apps → model prices 3.70/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.26/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.42/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.82/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Christoph BaumgartnerMID~69 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.51/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.95/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.04/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.40/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.31/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 64 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hugo BolinFWD~42 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 4.10/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.74/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.19/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 2.06/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.52/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolas SeiwaldMID~76 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~34 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.13/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.55/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.80/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Brajan GrudaMIDRB Leipzig~58 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.37/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.85/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.86/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.58/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.72/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Cards: career 1.89/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rocco ReitzMID~77 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.40/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.08/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.23/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.41/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Shuto MachinoFWD~33 min · starts 28%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 28% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.73/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.73/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.79/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.27/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.50/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.02/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Forzan Assan OuedraogoMID~46 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.39/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 4.82/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.68/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.73/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.56/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.97/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kevin KamplMID~55 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.32/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.34/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.07/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.24/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jens CastropMID~61 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.49/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.86/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.47/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.30/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Philipp SanderMID~68 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.18/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.39/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.50/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.14/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tidiam GomisFWD~19 min · starts 12%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~19 minutes: starts 12% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.83/90 over 26 apps → model prices 4.31/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.24/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.99/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.82/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.87/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joseph Michael ScallyDEF~81 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.89/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.64/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.37/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 64 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Willi OrbanDEF~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.78/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.65/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.28/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.74/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
David RaumDEF~84 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.65/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.67/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.24/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lukas KlostermannDEF~58 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.30/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.58/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.09/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.88/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kevin DiksDEF~82 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.98/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.45/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.71/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.95/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ridle Bote BakuDEF~75 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.80/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.89/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.30/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.20/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kevin StögerMID~48 min · starts 52%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 52% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.79/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.38/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.57/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.64/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Cards: career 1.59/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 60 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nico ElvediDEF~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.55/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.47/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.07/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.38/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lukas UllrichDEF~66 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.09/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.53/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Florian NeuhausMID~37 min · starts 37%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 37% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.65/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.33/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.32/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.03/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Castello LukebaDEF~77 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.58/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.19/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.70/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.46/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ezechiel BanzuziMID~24 min · starts 8%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~24 minutes: starts 8% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.69/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.79/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.51/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.32/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.15/90 over 24 apps → model prices 2.44/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Benjamin HenrichsDEF~39 min · starts 41%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 41% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 3.61/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.43/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.04/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.29/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Wael MohyaMID~37 min · starts 40%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 40% of his matches (~64 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.62/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.11/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.39/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 2.34/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Max FinkgräfeDEF~39 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.57/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.25/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Shots: career 7.16/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Fabio Cristian ChiarodiaDEF~34 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~34 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.62/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.14/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.10/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.11/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
El Chadaille BitshiabuDEF~56 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.37/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.09/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.53/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Grant-Leon RanosFWD~13 min · starts 0%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~13 minutes: starts 0% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.94/90 over 10 apps → model prices 3.28/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.00/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.40/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.62/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.75/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marvin FriedrichDEF~40 min · starts 36%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~40 minutes: starts 36% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.56/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.07/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.25/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.88/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Giovanni ReynaMIDBorussia Mönchengladbach~27 min · starts 21%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~27 minutes: starts 21% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 1.01/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.66/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.69/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.67/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.23/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.