Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Arsenal v Coventry City · Premier League · Friday 21 August at 20:00 · 209 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Carl RushworthGKCoventry City~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.60/90 over 46 apps → model prices 3.07/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.23/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Oliver Nnonyelu DovinGKCoventry City~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.11/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.48/90 over 28 apps → model prices 3.04/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Bukayo SakaFWDArsenal~71 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.07/90 over 48 apps → model prices 3.17/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.07/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.19/90 over 48 apps → model prices 2.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kai HavertzFWDArsenal~70 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.06/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.64/90 over 31 apps → model prices 2.85/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.62/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
David Raya MartinGKArsenal~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 1.95/90 over 75 apps → model prices 2.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.32/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 75 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Leandro TrossardFWD~63 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.68/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.66/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.95/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.49/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Eberechi EzeMIDArsenal~57 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.29/90 over 24 apps → model prices 2.93/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.56/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.79/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Viktor GyökeresFWDArsenal~62 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.43/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.30/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.22/90 over 30 apps → model prices 2.57/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Haji WrightFWDCoventry City~69 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.26/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.06/90 over 54 apps → model prices 2.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.14/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ogochukwu Onyeka FrankMIDCoventry City~73 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.54/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.95/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.70/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.68/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.90/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Martin ØdegaardMIDArsenal
Gabriel Teodoro Martinelli SilvaFWDArsenal~54 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.13/90 over 45 apps → model prices 2.43/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.93/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.58/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Myles Lewis-SkellyDEFArsenal~48 min · starts 47%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 47% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.68/90 over 25 apps → model prices 2.48/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.24/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.63/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jack RudoniMIDCoventry City~78 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.10/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.13/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Declan RiceMIDArsenal~84 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.41/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.34/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.72/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 69 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ephron Mason-ClarkMIDCoventry City~65 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.11/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.82/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.93/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Chukwunonso MaduekeFWDArsenal~47 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.00/90 over 19 apps → model prices 2.35/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.95/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.01/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Brandon Thomas-AsanteFWDCoventry City~49 min · starts 51%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 51% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.92/90 over 39 apps → model prices 2.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.04/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.19/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mikel Merino ZazónMIDArsenal
Gabriel Fernando de JesusFWDArsenal~33 min · starts 29%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 29% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.65/90 over 10 apps → model prices 3.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.77/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.93/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.50/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tatsuhiro SakamotoFWDCoventry City~67 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.68/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.83/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.39/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ben SheafMID~72 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.27/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.34/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.13/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ellis SimmsFWDCoventry City~46 min · starts 48%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 48% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.96/90 over 43 apps → model prices 2.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.28/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.91/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Victor Torp OvergaardMIDCoventry City~59 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.99/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.43/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.48/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jurriën TimberDEFArsenal~81 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.70/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.24/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.03/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ethan Chidiebere NwaneriMIDArsenal~33 min · starts 34%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 34% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.31/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.35/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.74/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.72/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Liam KitchingDEFCoventry City~87 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.80/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.96/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.05/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Riccardo CalafioriDEFArsenal~60 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.55/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.35/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.42/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.42/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Josh EcclesMIDCoventry City~53 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.98/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.58/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.11/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Martín Zubimendi IbáñezMIDArsenal~79 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.78/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.16/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.50/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joel LatibeaudiereDEFCoventry City~80 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.14/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.33/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Milan van EwijkDEFCoventry City~88 min · starts 99%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 99% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 90 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 90 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 90 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.68/90 over 90 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 90 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gabriel dos Santos MagalhãesDEFArsenal
Cristhian Andrey Mosquera IbarguenDEFArsenal
Bobby ThomasDEFCoventry City~89 min · starts 99%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 99% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.78/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.70/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.20/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 73 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
William SalibaDEFArsenal~86 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.18/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.53/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.80/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 65 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Piero Martín Hincapié ReynaDEFArsenal~72 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.14/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.94/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.53/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matt GrimesMIDCoventry City
Jay DasilvaDEFCoventry City~74 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.81/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.32/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.34/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jake BidwellDEFCoventry City~63 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.85/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.50/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.54/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ben WhiteDEFArsenal~66 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.64/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.54/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.74/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luke WoolfendenDEFCoventry City~63 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.33/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.53/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.16/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jamie AllenMID~35 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.85/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.92/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.49/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kaine KesslerDEFCoventry City~27 min · starts 23%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~27 minutes: starts 23% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.98/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.70/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.56/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 6 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.