Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Aston Villa v Arsenal · Premier League · Monday 31 August at 20:00 · 192 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Damián Emiliano MartínezGKAston Villa~87 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.34/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.91/90 over 69 apps → model prices 2.66/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 69 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
David Raya MartinGKArsenal~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 1.95/90 over 75 apps → model prices 2.49/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.32/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 75 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Bukayo SakaFWDArsenal~71 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.07/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.19/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.97/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.07/90 over 48 apps → model prices 2.53/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ollie WatkinsFWDAston Villa~73 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.08/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.76/90 over 69 apps → model prices 2.44/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.04/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 69 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kai HavertzFWDArsenal~70 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.06/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.62/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.70/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.64/90 over 31 apps → model prices 2.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
John McGinnMIDAston Villa~69 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.33/90 over 55 apps → model prices 2.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.21/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.55/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Leandro TrossardFWD~63 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.49/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.68/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.95/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Eberechi EzeMIDArsenal~57 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.56/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.29/90 over 24 apps → model prices 2.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.79/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Viktor GyökeresFWDArsenal~62 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.43/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.30/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.22/90 over 30 apps → model prices 2.05/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mikel Merino ZazónMIDArsenal~52 min · starts 54%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 54% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.39/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.85/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.05/90 over 31 apps → model prices 2.26/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Boubacar KamaraMIDAston Villa~72 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.80/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.32/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.48/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Myles Lewis-SkellyDEFArsenal~48 min · starts 47%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 47% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.68/90 over 25 apps → model prices 2.31/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.63/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.24/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Martin ØdegaardMIDArsenal~69 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.77/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.51/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.77/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ezri Konsa NgoyoDEFAston Villa~88 min · starts 99%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 99% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.33/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.33/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.30/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jurriën TimberDEFArsenal~81 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.70/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.24/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.03/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gabriel Teodoro Martinelli SilvaFWDArsenal~54 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.58/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.93/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.13/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.94/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Declan RiceMIDArsenal~84 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.41/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.72/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.34/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 69 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Riccardo CalafioriDEFArsenal~60 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.35/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.42/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.55/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.42/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matty CashDEFAston Villa~82 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~39 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.21/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.89/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.75/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 60 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Amadou Zeund Georges Mvom OnanaMIDAston Villa~67 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.97/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.35/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.41/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Leon Bailey ButlerFWDAston Villa~43 min · starts 46%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 46% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.13/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.03/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.25/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Chukwunonso MaduekeFWDArsenal~47 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.01/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.00/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.88/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.95/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Martín Zubimendi IbáñezMIDArsenal~79 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.78/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.50/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.16/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gabriel Fernando de JesusFWDArsenal~33 min · starts 29%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 29% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.50/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.77/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.65/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.55/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Emiliano BuendíaFWDAston Villa~39 min · starts 44%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 44% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.93/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.04/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.19/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.14/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.14/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Evann GuessandFWDAston Villa~45 min · starts 46%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~45 minutes: starts 46% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.79/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.45/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.12/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.73/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 8 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cristhian Andrey Mosquera IbarguenDEFArsenal~49 min · starts 45%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 45% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.68/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.63/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.13/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
William SalibaDEFArsenal
Ethan Chidiebere NwaneriMIDArsenal~33 min · starts 34%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 34% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.35/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.72/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.31/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Piero Martín Hincapié ReynaDEFArsenal
Lamar BogardeMIDAston Villa~42 min · starts 44%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 44% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.74/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.06/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.22/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gabriel dos Santos MagalhãesDEFArsenal~85 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.85/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.94/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.71/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ben WhiteDEFArsenal~66 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.74/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.64/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.54/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kevin Oghenetega Tamaraebi Bakumo-AbrahamFWDAston Villa
Ross BarkleyMIDAston Villa~35 min · starts 24%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 24% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.11/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.68/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.79/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tyrone MingsDEFAston Villa~79 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.67/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.52/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.71/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lucas DigneDEFAston Villa~67 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.60/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.72/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.54/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ian MaatsenDEFAston Villa~46 min · starts 46%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 46% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.18/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.78/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.74/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pau Francisco TorresDEFAston Villa~82 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.30/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.37/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.37/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 41 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Victor Nilsson LindelöfDEFAston Villa~56 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~5 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.17/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.58/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.12/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.