Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Lazio v Genoa · Serie A · Sunday 30 August at 19:45 · 213 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Nicola LealiGK~87 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.63/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.18/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.65/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.80/90 over 51 apps → model prices 3.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Justin BijlowGK~87 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.81/90 over 16 apps → model prices 3.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.13/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.06/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Valentín Mariano José Castellanos GiménezFWD~77 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.53/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.92/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.45/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.64/90 over 40 apps → model prices 2.69/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.53/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mattia ZaccagniFWD~80 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.25/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.60/90 over 60 apps → model prices 2.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.34/90 over 60 apps → model prices 2.39/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.67/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 60 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matteo CancellieriFWD~58 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.77/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.16/90 over 30 apps → model prices 2.41/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.67/90 over 30 apps → model prices 2.58/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.50/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Vítor Manuel Carvalho OliveiraFWD~60 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 5.29/90 over 60 apps → model prices 2.49/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.70/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.17/90 over 60 apps → model prices 2.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.53/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 60 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gustav Tang IsaksenFWD~57 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.40/90 over 67 apps → model prices 2.59/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.64/90 over 67 apps → model prices 2.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.11/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Boulaye DiaFWDLazio~56 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.84/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.89/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.63/90 over 62 apps → model prices 2.43/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lorenzo ColomboFWDGenoa~62 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.66/90 over 38 apps → model prices 2.11/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.81/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.88/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.70/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.77/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.83/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Morten FrendrupMID~87 min · starts 99%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 99% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.01/90 over 71 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.35/90 over 71 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.20/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 71 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Morten ThorsbyMID~61 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.74/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.40/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.76/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.85/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.92/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mattéo Guendouzi OliéMID~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.83/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.06/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.86/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.33/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kenneth TaylorMID~83 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.17/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.97/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.38/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.80/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pedro Eliezer Rodríguez LedesmaFWD~35 min · starts 25%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 25% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.15/90 over 59 apps → model prices 3.02/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.15/90 over 59 apps → model prices 2.63/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.68/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.39/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tijanni NoslinFWD~34 min · starts 29%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~34 minutes: starts 29% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.84/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.08/90 over 59 apps → model prices 3.02/90 for this match
Fouls: career 4.11/90 over 59 apps → model prices 2.57/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.14/90 over 59 apps → model prices 2.63/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Leo Skiri OestigaardDEFGenoa~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.55/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.31/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.67/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.51/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolò RovellaMID~74 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.34/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.70/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.47/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Danilo CataldiMID~74 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~41 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.34/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.02/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 4.12/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mikael Egill EllertssonMID~77 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.53/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.94/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.73/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ruslan MalinovskiyMID~61 min · starts 74%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 74% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.68/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.32/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.76/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.29/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.46/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aarón Martín CaricolDEF~76 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.22/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.90/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.40/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 69 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alan Matturro RomeroDEFGenoa~69 min · starts 69%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 69% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.11/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.13/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.35/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Johan Felipe Vásquez IbarraDEF~87 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.86/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.19/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.79/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.14/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 72 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Junior MessiasFWD~41 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.61/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.39/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.83/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.11/90 over 37 apps → model prices 2.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.56/90 over 37 apps → model prices 2.07/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alessandro MarcandalliDEF~78 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.08/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.32/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.07/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.19/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Manuel LazzariDEF~49 min · starts 52%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 52% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.20/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.85/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.75/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.34/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.39/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alessio RomagnoliDEF~84 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.46/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.19/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.45/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 64 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Brooke Norton-CuffyDEF~72 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.98/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.60/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.23/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.59/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 41 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas FilhoMID~50 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.39/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.83/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Shots: career 9.55/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alessandro VogliaccoDEFGenoa~59 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.34/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.32/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.66/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nuno Albertino Varela TavaresDEF~69 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.75/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.29/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.10/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.13/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sebastian OtoaDEF~63 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 3.38/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.10/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.22/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.45/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adam MarušićDEF~75 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.71/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.37/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.49/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.86/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 68 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Reda BelahyaneMID~42 min · starts 32%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 32% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.60/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.36/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.24/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.10/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.17/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.74/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luca PellegriniDEF~55 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.90/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.62/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.35/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.69/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Caleb EkubanFWD~31 min · starts 18%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~31 minutes: starts 18% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.00/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.81/90 over 49 apps → model prices 2.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.87/90 over 49 apps → model prices 2.34/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.07/90 over 49 apps → model prices 2.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Stefano SabelliDEF~60 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.45/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.04/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.38/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Oliver Provstgaard NielsenDEF~56 min · starts 46%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 46% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.50/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.25/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.43/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.07/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.49/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Fisayo Dele-BashiruMID~48 min · starts 52%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 52% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.47/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.20/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.39/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Patricio Gabarrón GilDEF~53 min · starts 46%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 46% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.39/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.04/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.61/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.38/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jean Emile Junior Onana OnanaMID~28 min · starts 17%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~28 minutes: starts 17% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Fouls: career 5.12/90 over 12 apps → model prices 2.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.92/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.35/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Valentin CarboniMID~29 min · starts 25%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~29 minutes: starts 25% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.53/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.21/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.27/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.50/90 over 12 apps → model prices 2.01/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.48/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Elseid HysajDEF~37 min · starts 31%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 31% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.43/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.26/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.15/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.