Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Fulham v Crystal Palace · Premier League · Saturday 5 September at 15:00 · 143 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Dean HendersonGKCrystal Palace~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.80/90 over 75 apps → model prices 3.13/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.09/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 75 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Bernd LenoGKFulham~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.13/90 over 76 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.74/90 over 76 apps → model prices 2.54/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 76 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alex IwobiFWDFulham~81 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.44/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.47/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.75/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.94/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 64 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jean-Philippe MatetaFWDCrystal Palace~71 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.35/90 over 61 apps → model prices 2.06/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.86/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jørgen Strand LarsenFWDCrystal Palace~65 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.78/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.05/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.77/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.82/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rodrigo MunizFWDFulham~38 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~38 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.55/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.70/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.97/90 over 20 apps → model prices 3.48/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.32/90 over 20 apps → model prices 2.22/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ismaïla SarrFWDCrystal Palace~74 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.80/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.92/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.47/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Will HughesMIDCrystal Palace~58 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.29/90 over 47 apps → model prices 2.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.89/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.34/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.47/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel MuñozDEFCrystal Palace~85 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.46/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.00/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.58/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 64 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Eddie NketiahFWDCrystal Palace~35 min · starts 27%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 27% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.34/90 over 19 apps → model prices 2.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.55/90 over 19 apps → model prices 3.10/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.70/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.90/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kenny TeteDEFFulham~81 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~8 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.57/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.99/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.16/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 42 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Emile Smith RoweMIDFulham~56 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.69/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.56/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.90/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yéremy PinoFWDCrystal Palace~62 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.56/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.68/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.13/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.72/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
KevinFWDFulham~40 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~40 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.07/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.53/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.27/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.15/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Calvin BasseyDEFFulham~86 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.16/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.44/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ryan SessegnonDEFFulham~56 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.08/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.80/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.24/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adama TraoréFWD~40 min · starts 37%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~40 minutes: starts 37% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.63/90 over 25 apps → model prices 2.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.38/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.78/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.86/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daichi KamadaMIDCrystal Palace~56 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.33/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.94/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.56/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 42 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sander BergeMIDFulham~78 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.30/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.44/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.16/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adam WhartonMIDCrystal Palace~72 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.20/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.06/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.10/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Josh KingMIDFulham~36 min · starts 40%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 40% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.80/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.83/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.85/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.75/90 over 18 apps → model prices 2.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jefferson LermaMIDCrystal Palace~63 min · starts 69%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 69% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.34/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.24/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.93/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Oscar BobbFWDFulham~41 min · starts 43%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 43% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.36/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.73/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.63/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.90/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Antonee RobinsonDEFFulham~80 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.43/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.57/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.91/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joachim AndersenDEFFulham~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.54/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.83/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.58/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tyrick MitchellDEFCrystal Palace~85 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.44/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.67/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.75/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 75 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tom CairneyMIDFulham~28 min · starts 18%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~28 minutes: starts 18% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.48/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.90/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.06/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.74/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Timothy CastagneDEFFulham~65 min · starts 69%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 69% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.48/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.86/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.45/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jaydee CanvotDEFCrystal Palace~67 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.48/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.82/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.48/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cheick DoucouréMIDCrystal Palace~35 min · starts 31%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 31% of his matches (~56 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.21/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.21/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.21/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Chadi RiadDEFCrystal Palace~64 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.43/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.43/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.86/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Justin DevennyMIDCrystal Palace~30 min · starts 25%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~30 minutes: starts 25% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.91/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.27/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.00/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Chris RichardsDEFCrystal Palace~83 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.52/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.17/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.54/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jorge CuencaDEFFulham~56 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~2 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.14/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.21/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.78/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.35/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Romain EsseFWDCrystal Palace~18 min · starts 9%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~18 minutes: starts 9% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.45/90 over 1 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.65/90 over 1 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.55/90 over 1 apps → model prices 2.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 1 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nathaniel ClyneDEF~47 min · starts 52%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 52% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.36/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.36/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.44/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Harrison ReedMIDFulham~10 min · starts 5%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~10 minutes: starts 5% of his matches (~63 when he starts, ~7 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.86/90 over 1 apps → model prices 2.68/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.00/90 over 1 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.00/90 over 1 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 1 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 1 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.