Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Athletic Club v Sevilla · La Liga · Saturday 22 August at 16:00 · 190 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Odisseas VlachodimosGKSevilla~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.70/90 over 33 apps → model prices 3.05/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.06/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.07/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Unai Simón MendibilGKAthletic Club~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.55/90 over 58 apps → model prices 2.36/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.19/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gorka Guruzeta RodríguezFWDAthletic Club
Iñaki Williams ArthuerFWDAthletic Club~74 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.28/90 over 61 apps → model prices 2.25/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.91/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.18/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicholas Williams ArthuerFWDAthletic Club~68 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.53/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.40/90 over 50 apps → model prices 2.44/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.00/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Oihan Sancet TirapuMIDAthletic Club
Dodi LukebakioFWD~82 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.11/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.67/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.79/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta EtxeberriaMIDAthletic Club~62 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~33 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.74/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.30/90 over 56 apps → model prices 2.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.41/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alejandro Berenguer RemiroFWDAthletic Club
Lucien AgoumeMIDSevilla
Gerard Fernández CastellanoFWDSevilla~41 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 3.10/90 over 28 apps → model prices 3.25/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.26/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.40/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mikel Jauregizar AlbonigaMIDAthletic Club~73 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.03/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.34/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.71/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Maroan Sannadi HarrouchFWDAthletic Club~40 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~40 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.38/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.78/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.84/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.87/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.16/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
José Ángel Carmona NavarroDEFSevilla~79 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.64/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.43/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.36/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.58/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 68 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Benat Prados DíazMIDAthletic Club~57 min · starts 69%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 69% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.76/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.76/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.06/90 over 25 apps → model prices 2.01/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Isaac Romero BernalFWDSevilla
Ruben VargasFWDSevilla
Alejandro Rego MoraMIDAthletic Club~44 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~44 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.45/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.36/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.53/90 over 16 apps → model prices 2.44/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.36/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adrià Giner PedrosaDEFSevilla~72 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.66/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.47/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.89/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marcos do Nascimento TeixeiraDEFSevilla
Gabriel Alonso Suazo UrbinaDEFSevilla~72 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.62/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.42/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.22/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Álvaro Djaló Dias FernandesFWDAthletic Club~39 min · starts 41%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 41% of his matches (~59 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.06/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.42/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.37/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.74/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.58/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.30/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel Vivian MorenoDEFAthletic Club~82 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.62/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.67/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.14/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aitor Paredes CasamichanaDEFAthletic Club~82 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.32/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.50/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yuri Berchiche IzetaDEFAthletic Club~77 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.75/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.80/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.02/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andoni Gorosabel EspinosaDEFAthletic Club~65 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.16/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.22/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.43/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Enrique Jesús Salas ValienteDEFSevilla~78 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.07/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.84/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolás Serrano GaldeanoFWDAthletic Club~24 min · starts 25%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~24 minutes: starts 25% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.61/90 over 5 apps → model prices 3.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.11/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.11/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.74/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nemanja GudeljMID~82 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.51/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.87/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jesús Areso BlancoDEFAthletic Club~58 min · starts 54%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 54% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.22/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.55/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.02/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joaquín Martínez GaunaDEFSevilla~67 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.79/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.12/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.99/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yeray Álvarez LópezDEFAthletic Club~82 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.71/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.78/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.39/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adama Boiro BoiroDEFAthletic Club~60 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.35/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.84/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.94/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Robert Navarro MuñozFWDAthletic Club~41 min · starts 31%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 31% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.11/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.82/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.19/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andrés López GalloDEFSevilla~67 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.97/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.75/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alfonso González MartínezFWDSevilla~31 min · starts 40%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~31 minutes: starts 40% of his matches (~57 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.72/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.56/90 over 4 apps → model prices 2.08/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.04/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 4 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Chidera EjukeFWDSevilla
Mikel Vesga ArrutiMIDAthletic Club~30 min · starts 23%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~30 minutes: starts 23% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.27/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.68/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.49/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aymeric LaporteDEFAthletic Club~82 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.57/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.40/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.62/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Manuel Bueno SebastiánMIDSevilla~24 min · starts 18%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~24 minutes: starts 18% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.61/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.23/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.23/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.