Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Nottingham Forest v Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League · Saturday 5 September at 15:00 · 169 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Antonín KinskýGKTottenham Hotspur~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.62/90 over 13 apps → model prices 3.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.08/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Guglielmo VicarioGKTottenham Hotspur~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.75/90 over 55 apps → model prices 3.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.09/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matz SelsGKNottingham Forest~88 min · starts 99%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 99% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.21/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Saves: career 3.18/90 over 68 apps → model prices 2.79/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 68 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Morgan Gibbs-WhiteMIDNottingham Forest~84 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.96/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.23/90 over 70 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.19/90 over 70 apps → model prices 2.42/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 70 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Igor JesusFWDNottingham Forest~63 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.54/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.58/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.71/90 over 31 apps → model prices 3.13/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Chris WoodFWDNottingham Forest~76 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.72/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.15/90 over 46 apps → model prices 2.52/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.02/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dominic SolankeFWDTottenham Hotspur~76 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.28/90 over 36 apps → model prices 2.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.26/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.40/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
James MaddisonMIDTottenham Hotspur~55 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.19/90 over 22 apps → model prices 2.73/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.54/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.76/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.85/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
RicharlisonFWDTottenham Hotspur~53 min · starts 51%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 51% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.81/90 over 29 apps → model prices 2.74/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.63/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mohammed KudusFWDTottenham Hotspur~81 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.36/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.68/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.19/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dejan KulusevskiMIDTottenham Hotspur~75 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.76/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.80/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.29/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Conor GallagherMIDTottenham Hotspur~74 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.84/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.13/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.73/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.70/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Xavi SimonsMIDTottenham Hotspur~63 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.23/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.83/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.00/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.95/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Callum Hudson-OdoiFWDNottingham Forest~67 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.07/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.48/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.83/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.55/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.75/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Neco WilliamsDEFNottingham Forest~81 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.46/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.27/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.85/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ibrahim SangaréMIDNottingham Forest~65 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.88/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.90/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.81/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.60/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mathys TelFWDTottenham Hotspur~51 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.19/90 over 28 apps → model prices 2.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.71/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.39/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ryan YatesMIDNottingham Forest~45 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~45 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.39/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.22/90 over 29 apps → model prices 2.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.13/90 over 29 apps → model prices 2.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.44/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.70/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Destiny UdogieDEFTottenham Hotspur~73 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.23/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.19/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.56/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rodrigo BentancurMIDTottenham Hotspur~68 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.39/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.47/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.34/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.88/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pape Matar SarrMIDTottenham Hotspur~53 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.21/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.30/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.64/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.80/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cristian RomeroDEFTottenham Hotspur~80 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.91/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.19/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.77/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.36/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Omari HutchinsonFWDNottingham Forest~54 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.14/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.36/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.49/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yves BissoumaMID~52 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.49/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.73/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.02/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.56/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dilane BakwaFWDNottingham Forest~40 min · starts 43%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~40 minutes: starts 43% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.16/90 over 8 apps → model prices 2.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.33/90 over 8 apps → model prices 2.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 8 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ola AinaDEFNottingham Forest~87 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.45/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.71/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.98/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lucas BergvallMIDTottenham Hotspur~44 min · starts 44%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~44 minutes: starts 44% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.72/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.97/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.97/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.88/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Djed SpenceDEFTottenham Hotspur~70 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.13/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.55/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.01/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dan NdoyeFWDNottingham Forest~49 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 3.18/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.74/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.04/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jota SilvaFWD~28 min · starts 16%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~28 minutes: starts 16% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.59/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.49/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.28/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.95/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.28/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.34/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.61/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pedro PorroDEFTottenham Hotspur~81 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.19/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.93/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.00/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Wilson OdobertFWDTottenham Hotspur~46 min · starts 48%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 48% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.65/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.21/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.59/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ben DaviesDEFTottenham Hotspur~73 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.45/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.16/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.52/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolò SavonaDEFNottingham Forest~73 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.86/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.38/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.41/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kevin DansoDEFTottenham Hotspur~69 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.14/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.67/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.98/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolás DomínguezMIDNottingham Forest~52 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.12/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.87/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.30/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Micky van de VenDEFTottenham Hotspur~85 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.69/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.49/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
MurilloDEFNottingham Forest~87 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.85/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.24/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Taiwo AwoniyiFWDNottingham Forest~21 min · starts 14%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~21 minutes: starts 14% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.07/90 over 8 apps → model prices 2.09/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.32/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.91/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.50/90 over 8 apps → model prices 2.97/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 8 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Archie GrayMIDTottenham Hotspur~62 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.75/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.32/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.35/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mikey MooreFWDTottenham Hotspur~36 min · starts 30%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 30% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.30/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.49/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.30/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nikola MilenkovićDEFNottingham Forest~89 min · starts 99%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 99% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.56/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.60/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.34/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 75 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
James McAteeMIDNottingham Forest~21 min · starts 14%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~21 minutes: starts 14% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.94/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.88/90 over 3 apps → model prices 2.74/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.17/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 3 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 3 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
MoratoDEFNottingham Forest~48 min · starts 43%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 43% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.27/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.36/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.