Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Sevilla v Atlético de Madrid · La Liga · Saturday 29 August at 20:30 · 182 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Juan Agustín MussoGKAtlético de Madrid~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.55/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.99/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.09/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.45/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jan OblakGKAtlético de Madrid~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.41/90 over 66 apps → model prices 2.78/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.09/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Odisseas VlachodimosGKSevilla~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.06/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.07/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.70/90 over 33 apps → model prices 2.49/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dodi LukebakioFWD~82 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.11/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.79/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.67/90 over 33 apps → model prices 2.38/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alexander SørlothFWDAtlético de Madrid~51 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.46/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.70/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.64/90 over 50 apps → model prices 3.04/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Julián ÁlvarezFWDAtlético de Madrid~67 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~33 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.63/90 over 60 apps → model prices 2.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.53/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.78/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 60 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Isaac Romero BernalFWDSevilla~62 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.28/90 over 47 apps → model prices 2.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.45/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.58/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ruben VargasFWDSevilla~65 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.99/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.02/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.30/90 over 30 apps → model prices 2.22/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lucien AgoumeMIDSevilla~70 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.03/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.84/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.48/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.42/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
João Lucas de Souza CardosoMIDAtlético de Madrid~60 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.58/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.22/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.73/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gerard Fernández CastellanoFWDSevilla~41 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.10/90 over 28 apps → model prices 3.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.40/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.26/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Giuliano SimeoneFWDAtlético de Madrid~64 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.99/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.82/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.98/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.34/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ademola LookmanFWDAtlético de Madrid~52 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~61 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.95/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.75/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.20/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.13/90 over 9 apps → model prices 2.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
José Ángel Carmona NavarroDEFSevilla~79 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.43/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.58/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.64/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.36/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 68 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Antoine GriezmannFWD~59 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.86/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.22/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.50/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matteo RuggeriDEFAtlético de Madrid~68 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.19/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.21/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.98/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alejandro Baena RodríguezFWDAtlético de Madrid~58 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.60/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.45/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.13/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Clément LengletDEF~81 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.38/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.19/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.50/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.56/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adrià Giner PedrosaDEFSevilla~72 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.66/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.47/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.89/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Robin Aime Robert Le NormandDEFAtlético de Madrid~72 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.40/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.90/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.27/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marcos do Nascimento TeixeiraDEFSevilla~60 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~8 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.63/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.69/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.82/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gabriel Alonso Suazo UrbinaDEFSevilla
Pablo Barrios RivasMIDAtlético de Madrid~74 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~33 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.15/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.12/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alfonso González MartínezFWDSevilla~31 min · starts 40%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~31 minutes: starts 40% of his matches (~57 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.72/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.56/90 over 4 apps → model prices 2.81/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.04/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 4 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Obed VargasMIDAtlético de Madrid~62 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.19/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.66/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.40/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
M. Pubill PagèsDEFAtlético de Madrid~73 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.73/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.93/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Chidera EjukeFWDSevilla
Marcos Llorente MorenoDEFAtlético de Madrid~76 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.94/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.63/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.69/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Enrique Jesús Salas ValienteDEFSevilla~78 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.84/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.07/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
José María Giménez de VargasDEFAtlético de Madrid~74 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.53/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.62/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nemanja GudeljMID~82 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.87/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.51/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joaquín Martínez GaunaDEFSevilla~67 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.79/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.99/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.12/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jorge Resurrección MerodioMIDAtlético de Madrid~63 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.82/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.54/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.89/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Thiago Ezequiel AlmadaFWDAtlético de Madrid~49 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.04/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.96/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.96/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andrés López GalloDEFSevilla~67 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.75/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.97/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dávid HanckoDEFAtlético de Madrid~81 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.79/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.56/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.15/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nahuel Molina LuceroDEFAtlético de Madrid~52 min · starts 54%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 54% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.62/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.79/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.38/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Manuel Bueno SebastiánMIDSevilla~24 min · starts 18%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~24 minutes: starts 18% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.61/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.23/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.23/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.