Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Brentford v Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League · Saturday 22 August at 17:30 · 199 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Antonín KinskýGKTottenham Hotspur~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.62/90 over 13 apps → model prices 3.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.08/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Guglielmo VicarioGKTottenham Hotspur~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.75/90 over 55 apps → model prices 3.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.09/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Caoimhin KelleherGKBrentford~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.19/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.06/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.02/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.91/90 over 37 apps → model prices 2.61/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Igor Thiago Nascimento RodriguesFWDBrentford~75 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.25/90 over 39 apps → model prices 2.55/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.98/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dango Aboubacar Faissal OuattaraFWDBrentford~71 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.22/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.40/90 over 26 apps → model prices 2.44/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dominic SolankeFWDTottenham Hotspur~76 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.28/90 over 36 apps → model prices 2.22/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.26/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.40/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kevin SchadeFWDBrentford~69 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.92/90 over 61 apps → model prices 2.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.25/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.47/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Richarlison de AndradeFWDTottenham Hotspur~53 min · starts 51%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 51% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.63/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.81/90 over 29 apps → model prices 2.77/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
James MaddisonMIDTottenham Hotspur~55 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.19/90 over 22 apps → model prices 2.56/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.76/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.86/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.54/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mohammed KudusFWDTottenham Hotspur
Dejan KulusevskiMIDTottenham Hotspur
Xavi SimonsMIDTottenham Hotspur~63 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.00/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.96/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.23/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mathys TelFWDTottenham Hotspur~51 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.39/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.19/90 over 28 apps → model prices 2.33/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.71/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Conor GallagherMIDTottenham Hotspur~74 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.84/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.13/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.73/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mikkel DamsgaardMIDBrentford
Iyenoma Destiny UdogieDEFTottenham Hotspur~73 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.19/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.23/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.56/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Michael Olabode KayodeDEFBrentford~77 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.25/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.78/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.26/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rodrigo Bentancur ColmánMIDTottenham Hotspur~68 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.88/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.47/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.39/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.34/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pape Matar SarrMIDTottenham Hotspur~53 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.21/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.30/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.64/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Keane Lewis-PotterMIDBrentford~69 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.17/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.56/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.02/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cristian Gabriel RomeroDEFTottenham Hotspur~80 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.36/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.91/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.77/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.19/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pedro Antonio Porro SaucedaDEFTottenham Hotspur~81 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.19/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.93/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.00/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Wilson OdobertFWDTottenham Hotspur
Yehor YarmoliukMIDBrentford~61 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.51/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.22/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.56/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lucas BergvallMIDTottenham Hotspur~44 min · starts 44%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~44 minutes: starts 44% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.88/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.97/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.72/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Djed SpenceDEFTottenham Hotspur~70 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.13/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.55/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.01/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ben DaviesDEFTottenham Hotspur
Kevin DansoDEFTottenham Hotspur
Vitaly JaneltMIDBrentford~65 min · starts 74%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 74% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.70/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.59/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.98/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yves BissoumaMID~59 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.28/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.44/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.96/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 8 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mickey van de VenDEFTottenham Hotspur~85 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.49/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.69/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mathias JensenMIDBrentford~52 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.82/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.01/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.75/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sepp van den BergDEFBrentford~85 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.27/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.63/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.71/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 60 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nathan Michael CollinsDEFBrentford~88 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.52/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.71/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.68/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 72 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mikey MooreFWDTottenham Hotspur~36 min · starts 30%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 30% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.30/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.49/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.30/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kristoffer Vassbakk AjerDEFBrentford~64 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.46/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.32/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rico HenryDEFBrentford~48 min · starts 47%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 47% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.06/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.23/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Archie GrayMIDTottenham Hotspur~62 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.32/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.35/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.75/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Fabio CarvalhoMIDBrentford
Ethan PinnockDEFBrentford~86 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.44/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.32/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.24/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aaron HickeyDEFBrentford~33 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.77/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.93/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.62/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yunus KonakMIDBrentford~4 min · starts 0%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~4 minutes: starts 0% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~4 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.75/90 over 0 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 0 apps → model prices 3.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.77/90 over 0 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 0 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.