Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
SC Freiburg v Werder Bremen · Bundesliga · Sunday 30 August at 14:30 · 214 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Mio BackhausGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 3.19/90 over 32 apps → model prices 3.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.38/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Noah AtuboluGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 3.14/90 over 60 apps → model prices 2.79/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.10/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 60 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yuito SuzukiFWD~66 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.24/90 over 25 apps → model prices 3.01/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.27/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.52/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.69/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Junior Chikwubuike AdamuFWD~59 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.66/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.45/90 over 34 apps → model prices 3.07/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.38/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.42/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Vincenzo GrifoFWD~62 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.13/90 over 67 apps → model prices 2.89/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.44/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.61/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.81/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lucas HölerFWD~61 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.78/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.41/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.71/90 over 64 apps → model prices 2.80/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.40/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 64 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Igor MatanovicFWD~50 min · starts 45%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 45% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 4.44/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.68/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.35/90 over 31 apps → model prices 3.36/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.63/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jan-Niklas BesteFWD~48 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.13/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.25/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.42/90 over 40 apps → model prices 3.00/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.77/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Eren DinkciFWD~47 min · starts 52%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 52% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.31/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.71/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.47/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.48/90 over 31 apps → model prices 3.05/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Derry Lionel ScherhantFWD~42 min · starts 39%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 39% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.46/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.81/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.95/90 over 31 apps → model prices 3.35/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.73/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.02/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marco GrüllFWD~51 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 3.02/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.67/90 over 63 apps → model prices 2.69/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.83/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.53/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Justin NjinmahFWD~49 min · starts 54%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 54% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.23/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.31/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.21/90 over 59 apps → model prices 2.61/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.37/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Maximilian EggesteinMID~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.66/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.22/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.38/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.62/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cyriaque Kalou IriéFWD~34 min · starts 30%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~34 minutes: starts 30% of his matches (~62 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 3.61/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.80/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.65/90 over 10 apps → model prices 3.42/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.95/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Cards: career 1.40/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Samuel MbangulaFWD~45 min · starts 46%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~45 minutes: starts 46% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.58/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.54/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.10/90 over 26 apps → model prices 2.50/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.85/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Romano SchmidMID~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.61/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.56/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.12/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.73/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jens StageMID~82 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.75/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.98/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.18/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.42/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jovan MiloševićFWD~37 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.84/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.57/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.76/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.13/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.33/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Patrick OsterhageMID~69 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.37/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.80/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.85/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Senne LynenMID~87 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.81/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.24/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.60/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Keke Maximilian ToppFWD~23 min · starts 21%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~23 minutes: starts 21% of his matches (~63 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 6.01/90 over 39 apps → model prices 2.52/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 3.26/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Shots: career 10.41/90 over 39 apps → model prices 4.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.91/90 over 39 apps → model prices 2.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.63/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Victor Okoh BonifaceFWD~30 min · starts 18%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~30 minutes: starts 18% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.27/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.74/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.92/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.94/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.58/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cameron PuertasMID~66 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.48/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.35/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.21/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.29/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolas HöflerMID~33 min · starts 27%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 27% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 6.24/90 over 33 apps → model prices 2.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.77/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.62/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.68/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.28/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marco FriedlDEF~84 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.41/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.09/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.21/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.85/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.58/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Niklas StarkDEF~71 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.97/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.10/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.23/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.41/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.37/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Abdoul Karim CoulibalyDEF~79 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.04/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.68/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.22/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.36/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Felix AguDEF~76 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.40/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.14/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.19/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.72/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Philipp TreuDEF~78 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.71/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.35/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matthias Lukas GinterDEF~84 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.19/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.57/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.87/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.74/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 64 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lukas KüblerDEF~68 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.11/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.23/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.49/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.99/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Leonardo BittencourtMID~36 min · starts 34%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 34% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 1.28/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.57/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.70/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.51/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.61/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.21/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Amos PieperDEF~72 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.84/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.41/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.64/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.10/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 42 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Philipp LienhartDEF~78 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~33 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.59/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.09/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.38/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.59/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Christian GünterDEF~73 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.14/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.64/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.21/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.59/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Bruno Ifechukwu OgbusDEF~60 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.42/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.85/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.00/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.57/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Olivier DemanDEF~53 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.05/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.42/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.40/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jordy MakengoDEF~49 min · starts 49%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 49% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.00/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.52/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.75/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Julián MalatiniDEF~46 min · starts 48%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 48% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.09/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.00/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.05/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.39/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Skelly AlveroMID~19 min · starts 7%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~19 minutes: starts 7% of his matches (~57 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.25/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Fouls: career 7.97/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.42/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.25/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Cards: career 6.43/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Isaac Osa's SchmidtDEF~36 min · starts 32%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 32% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 4.01/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.57/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.94/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.45/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Anthony JungDEF~44 min · starts 33%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~44 minutes: starts 33% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.09/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.45/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.78/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Max RosenfelderDEF~47 min · starts 49%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 49% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.47/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.61/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.03/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.85/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Patrice ČovićMID~23 min · starts 13%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~23 minutes: starts 13% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.52/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.03/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 2.10/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.23/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.