Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
AC Milan v Venezia · Serie A · Friday 28 August at 19:45 · 231 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Filip StankovicGK~86 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 3.88/90 over 16 apps → model prices 3.39/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.06/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ionuț Andrei RaduGKCelta de Vigo~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 3.04/90 over 15 apps → model prices 3.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.05/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.17/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mike MaignanGK~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.77/90 over 74 apps → model prices 2.44/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.17/90 over 74 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 74 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rafael Alexandre Conceição LeãoFWD~67 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.00/90 over 63 apps → model prices 2.91/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.82/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.97/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.16/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Christian PulisicFWD~64 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.02/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.71/90 over 64 apps → model prices 2.86/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.56/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.54/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.89/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.47/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 64 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Santiago Tomás GiménezFWD~52 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.56/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.15/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.52/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.02/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.93/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.82/90 over 30 apps → model prices 2.99/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joel PohjanpaloFWD~81 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.98/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.62/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.86/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.99/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.88/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adrien RabiotMID~88 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.97/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.41/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.31/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.66/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Christopher NkunkuFWD~42 min · starts 47%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 47% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.06/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.29/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.54/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.49/90 over 32 apps → model prices 3.06/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.00/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alexis SaelemaekersMID~80 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.53/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.40/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.94/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alessio ZerbinMIDFrosinone~84 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.20/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.14/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.47/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.41/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Samuel Chimerenka ChukwuezeFWDAC Milan~35 min · starts 33%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 33% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.40/90 over 27 apps → model prices 3.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.34/90 over 27 apps → model prices 2.11/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.83/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.66/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luka ModrićMIDAC Milan~83 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.93/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.02/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.99/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.36/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hans Nicolussi CavigliaMIDParma~82 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 1.80/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.67/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.41/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.68/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.46/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Youssouf FofanaMID~70 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.48/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.44/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.98/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.65/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 68 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Enrique Pérez MuñozMID~70 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.39/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.49/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.21/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.44/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
D. FilaFWD~50 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.93/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.80/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.80/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.08/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.21/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.65/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.75/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.41/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gaetano Pio OristanioMIDTorino~63 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.17/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.36/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.70/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.94/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jay IdzesDEF~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.38/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.21/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.29/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.04/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Fali CandéDEF~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.03/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.29/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.01/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.07/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gianluca BusioMID~77 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.93/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.45/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.26/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.17/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Francesco ZampanoMID~68 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.41/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.21/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.98/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.46/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joseph Alfred DuncanMID~60 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.28/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.85/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.76/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.26/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mikael Egill EllertssonMID~69 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.53/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.73/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.94/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yunus MusahMIDAC Milan~56 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.94/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.78/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.21/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.53/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Koni De WinterDEF~69 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.41/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.45/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.93/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Michael SvobodaDEFBrighton & Hove Albion~82 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.44/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.80/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.44/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.44/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Antonio CandelaDEF~72 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.60/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.04/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.43/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.15/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Strahinja PavlovićDEF~82 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.25/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.80/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.83/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ruben Loftus-CheekMID~46 min · starts 47%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 47% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.26/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.70/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.23/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.38/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.81/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.54/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matteo GabbiaDEF~84 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.73/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.13/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.83/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.28/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Davide BartesaghiDEF~73 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.58/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.17/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.13/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.46/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Fikayo TomoriDEF~76 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.21/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.10/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.27/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.04/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Francesco CamardaFWDAC Milan~21 min · starts 10%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~21 minutes: starts 10% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.74/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.31/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.38/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.60/90 over 10 apps → model prices 3.81/90 for this match
Fouls: career 4.75/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marin SverkoDEF~70 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.67/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.19/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.06/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.14/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
John Yeboah ZamoraFWD~37 min · starts 33%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 33% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.40/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.44/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.83/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.08/90 over 33 apps → model prices 2.15/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.81/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.29/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.75/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ardon JashariMID~50 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.16/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.92/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.61/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.17/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joël Marcel SchingtienneDEF~70 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.00/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.06/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.63/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Giorgio AltareDEFVenezia~63 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.08/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.25/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.67/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.17/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mirko MarićFWD~35 min · starts 40%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 40% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.80/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.07/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.87/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.97/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.61/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.93/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Magnus AndersenMID~49 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.96/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.17/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.05/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.15/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Samuele RicciMID~42 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.44/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.55/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.32/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.96/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.30/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Issa DoumbiaMID~39 min · starts 42%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 42% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.13/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.07/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.34/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.02/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.85/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Filippo TerraccianoDEFAC Milan~41 min · starts 46%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 46% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~6 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.10/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.35/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.88/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.07/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.73/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.47/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pervis Josué Estupiñán TenorioDEF~55 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.75/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.21/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.28/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.24/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.70/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ridgeciano HapsDEFVenezia~55 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.19/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.96/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.96/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.84/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Christian GytkjærFWD~26 min · starts 21%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~26 minutes: starts 21% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.37/90 over 29 apps → model prices 2.33/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.86/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.97/90 over 29 apps → model prices 2.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.68/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.99/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Zachary AthekameDEF~30 min · starts 26%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~30 minutes: starts 26% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.60/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.14/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.93/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.24/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.37/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.