Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Osasuna v Getafe · La Liga · Monday 31 August at 18:30 · 192 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
David Soria SolísGKGetafe~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.08/90 over 76 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.64/90 over 76 apps → model prices 2.90/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 76 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sergio Herrera PirónGKOsasuna~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 74 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Saves: career 3.24/90 over 74 apps → model prices 2.66/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.05/90 over 74 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.12/90 over 74 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 74 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ante BudimirFWDOsasuna~79 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.49/90 over 71 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.08/90 over 71 apps → model prices 2.96/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.11/90 over 71 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 71 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aimar OrozMIDOsasuna~76 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.05/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.39/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.33/90 over 62 apps → model prices 2.68/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Christantus Ugonna UcheFWDGetafe~77 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~34 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.48/90 over 35 apps → model prices 2.38/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.76/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.12/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.90/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mario Martín RielvesMIDGetafe
Martín SatrianoFWD~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.86/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.64/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.14/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lucas Torró MarsetMIDOsasuna~77 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.05/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.12/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.91/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.97/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 65 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mauro Wilney Arambarri RosaMID~82 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.71/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.71/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.68/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.73/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
David Cordón ManchaDEFGetafe~50 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.38/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.61/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.56/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.28/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alex Sola López OcañaFWD~52 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.00/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.53/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.59/90 over 12 apps → model prices 2.45/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ramón Terrats EspacioMIDGetafe
Diego Rico SalgueroDEF~77 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.16/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.52/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.65/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adrian Liso LahozFWD
Abdelkabir AbqarDEFGetafe~63 min · starts 74%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 74% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.47/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.56/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.88/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.75/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.44/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Flavien-Enzo BoyomosDEFOsasuna~86 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.23/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.22/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.39/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alejandro Catena MarugánDEFOsasuna~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.41/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.20/90 over 70 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.57/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 70 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jon Moncayola TollarMIDOsasuna~76 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.77/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.39/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.31/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Valentin RosierDEFOsasuna~82 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.67/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.58/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.38/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jorge Herrando OrozDEFOsasuna~65 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.44/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.46/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.25/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rubén García SantosFWDOsasuna~66 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.08/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.12/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.38/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Djené Dakonam OrtegaDEFGetafe~79 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.31/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.18/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.94/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.41/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Domingos Sousa Coutinho Meneses DuarteDEF~86 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.75/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.10/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.27/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Iker Muñoz CamerosMIDOsasuna~37 min · starts 29%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 29% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.72/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.01/90 over 21 apps → model prices 2.31/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.87/90 over 21 apps → model prices 2.36/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.36/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Abel Bretones CruzDEFOsasuna~59 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.27/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.96/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.57/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Juan Miguel Jiménez LópezFWDGetafe~41 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.63/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.04/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.03/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.43/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Borja Mayoral MoyaFWDGetafe~54 min · starts 48%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 48% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.20/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.53/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.96/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Raul Moro PrescoliFWDOsasuna~45 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~45 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.67/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.56/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.19/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 8 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Juan Berrocal GonzálezDEFGetafe~56 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.09/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.35/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.40/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.61/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Coba Gomes da CostaFWD~42 min · starts 45%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 45% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.11/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.55/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.55/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Raúl García de HaroFWDOsasuna~26 min · starts 16%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~26 minutes: starts 16% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.72/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.28/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.84/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.25/90 over 19 apps → model prices 2.82/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alejandro San Cristóbal SánchezFWDGetafe~39 min · starts 28%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 28% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.90/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.86/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.31/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.75/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Francisco Femenía FarDEFGetafe~72 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~34 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.52/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.24/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Zaid Abner RomeroDEFGetafe~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.73/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.80/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.67/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Moisés Gómez BordonadoMIDOsasuna~39 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.29/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.83/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.17/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.59/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Allan Romeo NyomDEF~42 min · starts 48%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 48% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.70/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.10/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.57/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Asier Osambela LarrayaMIDOsasuna~23 min · starts 11%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~23 minutes: starts 11% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.00/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.51/90 over 4 apps → model prices 2.61/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.31/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 4 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Javier Muñoz JiménezMIDGetafe~33 min · starts 24%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 24% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.94/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.09/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.84/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 6 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Enrique Barja AfonsoFWDOsasuna~18 min · starts 12%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~18 minutes: starts 12% of his matches (~57 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.34/90 over 8 apps → model prices 2.09/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.23/90 over 8 apps → model prices 2.69/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.78/90 over 8 apps → model prices 2.52/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.45/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 8 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Juan Sebastián Boselli GrafDEFGetafe~34 min · starts 36%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~34 minutes: starts 36% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~8 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.57/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.00/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.14/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.57/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 4 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.