Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Racing Santander v Elche · La Liga · Friday 28 August at 18:00 · 68 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Matías Ezequiel DituroGKElche~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.91/90 over 22 apps → model prices 3.43/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.32/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
German Valera KarabinaiteFWDElche~80 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.12/90 over 36 apps → model prices 2.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.02/90 over 36 apps → model prices 2.50/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.37/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.31/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
José Antonio Morente OlivaFWDElche~72 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.46/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.72/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.44/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.33/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.70/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.95/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Grady DianganaFWDElche~47 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~63 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.47/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.88/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.69/90 over 20 apps → model prices 2.48/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.04/90 over 20 apps → model prices 3.01/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.64/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lucas CepedaFWDElche~40 min · starts 40%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~40 minutes: starts 40% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 3.40/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.70/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.64/90 over 10 apps → model prices 3.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.66/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.53/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gonzalo Villar del FraileMIDElche~60 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.65/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.92/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.62/90 over 12 apps → model prices 2.01/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.08/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.90/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.34/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marc Aguado PallaresMIDElche~72 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.06/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.15/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.93/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.10/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
David AffengruberDEFElche~82 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.18/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.46/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Víctor Chust GarcíaDEFElche~70 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.10/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.75/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.39/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.59/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pedro Bigas RigoDEFElche~74 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.43/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.41/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Martim Carvalho NetoMIDElche~54 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.63/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.41/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.93/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.19/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.84/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aboubacar Sangaré TraoréDEFElche~45 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~45 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~63 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.41/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 4.62/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.92/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.74/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.23/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
John Nwankwo DonaldDEFElche~31 min · starts 29%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~31 minutes: starts 29% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 3.05/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.42/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 6.03/90 over 21 apps → model prices 2.60/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.15/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.10/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Federico Redondo SolariMIDElche~16 min · starts 9%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~16 minutes: starts 9% of his matches (~64 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 5.86/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.70/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.13/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.85/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.15/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.99/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.