Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Napoli v Como · Serie A · Sunday 30 August at 17:30 · 246 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Jean ButezGK~89 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~45 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.42/90 over 57 apps → model prices 2.81/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.19/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Assane Diao DiaouneFWD~73 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~42 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 3.20/90 over 31 apps → model prices 3.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.19/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.75/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.33/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolás Paz MartínezMID~80 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.15/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.62/90 over 63 apps → model prices 2.69/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.61/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Scott McTominayMID~86 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.09/90 over 65 apps → model prices 2.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.11/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.80/90 over 65 apps → model prices 2.42/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 65 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Vanja Milinković SavićGKNapoli~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.25/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.95/90 over 27 apps → model prices 2.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alex MeretGK~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.11/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Saves: career 1.85/90 over 45 apps → model prices 2.09/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.02/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.05/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rasmus Winther HøjlundFWD~84 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.05/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.52/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.87/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.01/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.01/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alieu FaderaFWDComo~59 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.33/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.93/90 over 20 apps → model prices 2.60/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.13/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.99/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alisson de Almeida SantosFWD~60 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.46/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.91/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.96/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.54/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Romelu Lukaku MenamaFWD~71 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.11/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.46/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.93/90 over 35 apps → model prices 2.02/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Antonio VergaraMID~51 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~7 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.45/90 over 8 apps → model prices 2.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.91/90 over 8 apps → model prices 2.69/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.53/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.88/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 8 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kevin De BruyneMID~65 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~41 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.74/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.21/90 over 17 apps → model prices 2.00/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.64/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matteo PolitanoFWD~71 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.56/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.78/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.06/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Martin BaturinaMID~55 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.78/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.56/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.46/90 over 21 apps → model prices 2.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Diego Carlos Santos SilvaDEF~72 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~34 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.30/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.59/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.39/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Edoardo GoldanigaDEF~75 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.40/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.59/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.23/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.47/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Anastasios DouvikasFWD~56 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.52/90 over 37 apps → model prices 2.10/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.03/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.88/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.50/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.74/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Juan Guilherme Nunes JesusDEF~71 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.62/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.20/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.24/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Stanislav LobotkaMID~80 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.66/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.27/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.34/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Giovanni Di LorenzoDEF
Alessandro BuongiornoDEF~81 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.35/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.95/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.31/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jesús Rodríguez CaraballoFWD~56 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.12/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.94/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.38/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.05/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Álex Valle GómezDEF~71 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.58/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.06/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.43/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
André-Frank Zambo AnguissaMID~78 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.46/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.24/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.15/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Maximo PerroneMID~74 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.56/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.32/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jayden AddaiFWD~57 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.56/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.83/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.81/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.40/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.83/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.75/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jacobo Ramón NaverosDEF~86 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.40/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.40/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.26/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ivan SmolčićDEF~62 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.37/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.90/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.77/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.46/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Amir RrahmaniDEF~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.74/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.07/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.55/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alberto DossenaDEFComo~79 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.11/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.83/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.62/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ignace Van Der BremptDEF~55 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.09/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.41/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.54/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.68/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Maxence CaqueretMID~54 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.46/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.90/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.20/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
David Neres CamposFWD
Noa LangFWDNapoli~37 min · starts 39%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 39% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.33/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.17/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.87/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.67/90 over 9 apps → model prices 2.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Álvaro Borja Morata MartínFWDComo~36 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.38/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.91/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.34/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.15/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.05/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.82/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.02/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lucas Da CunhaMID~75 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.31/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.77/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.94/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mathías Olivera MiramontesDEF~66 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.78/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.11/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.60/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Eljif ElmasMID~54 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.02/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.33/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.92/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sam BeukemaDEF~70 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.46/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.77/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.89/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alberto Moreno PérezDEF
Lorenzo LuccaFWDNapoli
Giovane Santana do NascimentoFWD~28 min · starts 17%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~28 minutes: starts 17% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.17/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.86/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.96/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.96/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.60/90 over 3 apps → model prices 2.76/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 3 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marc-Oliver KempfDEF~76 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.76/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Billy GilmourMID~46 min · starts 49%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 49% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.97/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.82/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.02/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sergi Roberto CarnicerMID~37 min · starts 39%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 39% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.60/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.03/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.03/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.47/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luca MazzitelliMIDComo~33 min · starts 27%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 27% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 3 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.54/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.54/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.85/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.84/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 3 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Stefan PoschDEFComo~27 min · starts 21%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~27 minutes: starts 21% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.66/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.32/90 over 5 apps → model prices 2.07/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.15/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Leonardo SpinazzolaDEF~58 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.42/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.86/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.64/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolas-Gerrit KühnFWD~29 min · starts 26%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~29 minutes: starts 26% of his matches (~64 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.37/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.73/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.73/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cyril NgongeFWDNapoli~12 min · starts 6%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~12 minutes: starts 6% of his matches (~57 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.85/90 over 1 apps → model prices 2.51/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.99/90 over 1 apps → model prices 2.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.18/90 over 1 apps → model prices 3.40/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 1 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pasquale MazzocchiDEF~28 min · starts 25%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~28 minutes: starts 25% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.73/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.24/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.48/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alessandro GabrielloniFWDComo~11 min · starts 0%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~11 minutes: starts 0% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.65/90 over 1 apps → model prices 2.96/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.65/90 over 1 apps → model prices 2.83/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.00/90 over 1 apps → model prices 1.75/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 1 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.