Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Espanyol v Levante · La Liga · Sunday 16 August at 18:00 · 150 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Marko DmitrovićGKEspanyol~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 3.42/90 over 37 apps → model prices 2.75/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.16/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Javier Puado DíazFWDEspanyol~82 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~6 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.75/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.50/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.97/90 over 45 apps → model prices 2.45/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.76/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Roberto Fernández JaénFWDEspanyol~68 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.11/90 over 57 apps → model prices 2.54/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.64/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.84/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.64/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tyrhys DolanFWDEspanyol~68 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~35 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.54/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.42/90 over 36 apps → model prices 2.45/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.20/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.57/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pere Milla PeñaFWDEspanyol~46 min · starts 47%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 47% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.54/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.39/90 over 53 apps → model prices 3.25/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.23/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.14/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.88/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.16/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Iván Romero de Ávila AraqueFWDLevante~71 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.85/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.52/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.01/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.34/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.03/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.86/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Enrique García MartínezFWDEspanyol~47 min · starts 46%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 46% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.78/90 over 37 apps → model prices 2.91/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.56/90 over 37 apps → model prices 2.00/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.97/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.37/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kareem Tunde RuizFWDLevante~55 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.90/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.00/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.21/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Shots: career 6.65/90 over 21 apps → model prices 2.43/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jofre Carreras PagèsFWDEspanyol~49 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.85/90 over 63 apps → model prices 2.62/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.82/90 over 63 apps → model prices 2.10/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.46/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pol Lozano VizueteMIDEspanyol~66 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.95/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.47/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.13/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.85/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.94/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.89/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Roger Brugué AyguadéFWDLevante~53 min · starts 53%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 53% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.90/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.16/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.53/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.56/90 over 19 apps → model prices 2.20/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Karl Edouard Blaise Etta EyongFWDLevante~47 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.99/90 over 30 apps → model prices 2.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.43/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.38/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 2.28/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Víctor García RajaFWDLevante~50 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.32/90 over 21 apps → model prices 2.06/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.68/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.37/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Urko González de Zarate QuirósMIDEspanyol~77 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.37/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.08/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.48/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.26/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Antoniu Roca VivesFWDEspanyol~34 min · starts 41%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~34 minutes: starts 41% of his matches (~60 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.92/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.83/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.30/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.69/90 over 39 apps → model prices 2.85/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.17/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.95/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.64/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Carlos Álvarez RiveraMIDLevante~63 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.54/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.77/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.42/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.02/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Eduardo Expósito JaénMIDEspanyol~65 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 1.14/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.48/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.61/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.62/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.93/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Oriol Rey ErenasMIDLevante~66 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.39/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.66/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.77/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.19/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Francisco Cortés GraciaFWDLevante~39 min · starts 33%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 33% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.27/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.28/90 over 12 apps → model prices 2.24/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.78/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.99/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Omar El HilaliDEFEspanyol~83 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.49/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.04/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.80/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 72 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Manuel Sánchez De La PeñaDEFLevante~85 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~37 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.42/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.14/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.51/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.09/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
José Gragera AmadoMIDEspanyol~57 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.63/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.44/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.80/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jeremy ToljanDEFLevante~86 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.02/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.03/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.24/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.54/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adrián De la Fuente BarquillaDEFLevante~82 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.19/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.17/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.27/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.84/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Unai Elgezabal UdondoDEFLevante~80 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.93/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.30/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.55/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kevin ArriagaMIDLevante~57 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.99/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.23/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.23/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.22/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Leandro Daniel Cabrera SasíaDEFEspanyol~89 min · starts 99%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 99% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~45 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.26/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.84/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.24/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.89/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 70 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Clemens RiedelDEFEspanyol~70 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.42/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.15/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.05/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.96/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.91/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jon Ander Olasagasti ImizcozMIDLevante~52 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.07/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.26/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.99/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.28/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rubén Sánchez SáezDEFEspanyol~38 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~38 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.06/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.95/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 5.26/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.19/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Miguel Ángel Rubio LestánDEFEspanyol~17 min · starts 8%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~17 minutes: starts 8% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.50/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.63/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.54/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.