Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Burnley v Middlesbrough · Championship · Wednesday 2 September at 20:00 · 151 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Sol BrynnGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.05/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.02/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.13/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.27/90 over 55 apps → model prices 2.58/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Finn AzazMID~78 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.88/90 over 44 apps → model prices 2.61/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.19/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.69/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Morgan WhittakerFWD~68 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.10/90 over 49 apps → model prices 2.86/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.62/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aidan MorrisMID~82 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.09/90 over 74 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 74 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.46/90 over 74 apps → model prices 2.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.29/90 over 74 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 74 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Zian FlemmingFWD~66 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.55/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.19/90 over 49 apps → model prices 2.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.76/90 over 49 apps → model prices 2.79/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tommy ConwayFWD~73 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.40/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.94/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.07/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.92/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 72 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
HannibalMID~50 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.39/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.84/90 over 40 apps → model prices 2.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.05/90 over 40 apps → model prices 2.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luca KoleoshoFWDBurnley~60 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.32/90 over 20 apps → model prices 2.12/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.74/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.53/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Josh CullenMID~86 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.24/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.59/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.59/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
David StrelecFWD~59 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.18/90 over 30 apps → model prices 2.09/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.77/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.36/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Riley McGreeMID~60 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.03/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.50/90 over 33 apps → model prices 2.06/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.81/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lyle FosterFWD~55 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.55/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.68/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.89/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.69/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.97/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marcus EdwardsFWD~54 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.48/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.74/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.93/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.89/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luke AylingDEF~80 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.82/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.32/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.59/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Leo CastledineMID~29 min · starts 9%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~29 minutes: starts 9% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.93/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 5.41/90 over 5 apps → model prices 3.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.55/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.68/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alex BanguraDEF~42 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~61 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 3.01/90 over 7 apps → model prices 2.04/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.56/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.56/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sam SilveraFWD~47 min · starts 36%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 36% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.04/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.97/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.73/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.81/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Josh LaurentMID~56 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.83/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.85/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.36/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kyle WalkerDEF~86 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~8 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.22/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.59/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Callum BrittainDEF~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.58/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.83/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Armando BrojaFWD~35 min · starts 33%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 33% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.60/90 over 9 apps → model prices 2.26/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.50/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.81/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.40/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Axel TuanzebeDEF~86 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.19/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.44/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lesley UgochukwuMID~67 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.33/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.66/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.98/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adilson MalandaDEF~89 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~59 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.42/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.93/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.34/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marcus ForssFWD~27 min · starts 24%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~27 minutes: starts 24% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.38/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.57/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.23/90 over 7 apps → model prices 2.83/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Neto BorgesDEF~77 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.95/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.95/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.69/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jacob Bruun LarsenFWD~37 min · starts 36%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 36% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.54/90 over 12 apps → model prices 2.03/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.28/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.28/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lucas PiresDEF~78 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.74/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.31/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alfie JonesDEF~86 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.24/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.36/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.68/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alex GilbertMID~34 min · starts 32%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~34 minutes: starts 32% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.39/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.65/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.65/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.68/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.88/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Bashir HumphreysDEF~75 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.93/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.66/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.52/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
George EdmundsonDEF~75 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.57/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.81/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.44/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sontje HansenFWD~27 min · starts 21%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~27 minutes: starts 21% of his matches (~56 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.41/90 over 8 apps → model prices 2.29/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.17/90 over 8 apps → model prices 2.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 8 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jeremy SarmientoFWDMiddlesbrough~28 min · starts 25%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~28 minutes: starts 25% of his matches (~63 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.26/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.48/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.25/90 over 8 apps → model prices 2.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 8 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Micah HamiltonFWD~21 min · starts 18%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~21 minutes: starts 18% of his matches (~57 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.12/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.74/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.86/90 over 4 apps → model prices 2.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 4 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kaly SèneFWDMiddlesbrough~25 min · starts 18%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~25 minutes: starts 18% of his matches (~58 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.24/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.83/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.49/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.74/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hjalmar EkdalDEF~81 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.30/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.35/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.41/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sverre NypanMID~31 min · starts 15%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~31 minutes: starts 15% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.08/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.29/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.43/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 8 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joe WorrallDEF~39 min · starts 40%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 40% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~8 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.25/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.37/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.74/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ashley BarnesFWDBurnley~9 min · starts 5%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~9 minutes: starts 5% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~5 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.41/90 over 1 apps → model prices 3.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.88/90 over 1 apps → model prices 1.75/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.81/90 over 1 apps → model prices 2.33/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 1 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.