Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Paderborn v SC Freiburg · Bundesliga · Saturday 5 September at 14:30 · 86 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Noah AtuboluGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.10/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Saves: career 3.14/90 over 60 apps → model prices 3.74/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 60 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Igor MatanovicFWD~50 min · starts 45%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 45% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.55/90 over 18 apps → model prices 3.34/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.67/90 over 18 apps → model prices 3.90/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.00/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yuito SuzukiFWD~66 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.59/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.00/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.99/90 over 21 apps → model prices 2.99/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Junior AdamuFWD~59 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.98/90 over 27 apps → model prices 3.03/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.37/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.87/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.07/90 over 27 apps → model prices 2.75/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Vincenzo GrifoFWD~62 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.54/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.00/90 over 56 apps → model prices 2.77/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.02/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.52/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lucas HölerFWD~61 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.39/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.98/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.52/90 over 47 apps → model prices 2.32/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.34/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.86/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Philipp TreuDEF~78 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.75/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.65/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.27/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Maximilian EggesteinMID~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.67/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.22/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.61/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Derry ScherhantFWD~42 min · starts 39%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 39% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.19/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.80/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.11/90 over 14 apps → model prices 3.09/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.93/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.47/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Niklas BesteFWD~48 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.25/90 over 21 apps → model prices 2.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.79/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.93/90 over 21 apps → model prices 2.64/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lukas KüblerDEF~68 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.96/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.80/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.16/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 42 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cyriaque IriéFWD~34 min · starts 30%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~34 minutes: starts 30% of his matches (~62 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.41/90 over 5 apps → model prices 2.72/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.07/90 over 5 apps → model prices 3.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.07/90 over 5 apps → model prices 2.63/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Patrick OsterhageMID~69 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.95/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.71/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.01/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Eren DinkçiFWD~47 min · starts 52%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 52% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.69/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.42/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.49/90 over 19 apps → model prices 2.00/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matthias GinterDEF~84 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.71/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.50/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.79/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolas HöflerMID~33 min · starts 27%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 27% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.66/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.66/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.53/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.39/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Philipp LienhartDEF~78 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~33 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.36/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.65/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.58/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Christian GünterDEF~73 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.67/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.55/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.24/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Max RosenfelderDEF~47 min · starts 49%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 49% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.06/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.31/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.50/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Bruno OgbusDEF~60 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.48/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.32/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Anthony JungDEF~44 min · starts 33%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~44 minutes: starts 33% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.64/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.48/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.08/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 6 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jordy MakengoDEF~49 min · starts 49%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 49% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.68/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.00/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.62/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.