Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Ipswich Town v Sunderland · Premier League · Saturday 22 August at 15:00 · 228 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Robin RoefsGKSunderland~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.40/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Saves: career 3.11/90 over 35 apps → model prices 3.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Anthony PattersonGKSunderland~91 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~91 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~91 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.16/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.15/90 over 45 apps → model prices 2.69/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alex PalmerGKIpswich Town~87 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.23/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.67/90 over 22 apps → model prices 2.58/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Christian WaltonGKIpswich Town~90 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~66 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.16/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.70/90 over 44 apps → model prices 2.47/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jaden Philogene-BidaceFWDIpswich Town
Marcelino Ignacio Nuñez EspinozaMIDIpswich Town~60 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.52/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.74/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.45/90 over 26 apps → model prices 2.53/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sindre Walle EgeliFWDIpswich Town~53 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.54/90 over 18 apps → model prices 2.79/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.69/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.58/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Anis MehmetiMIDIpswich Town~57 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.74/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.52/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.20/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.00/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.35/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Wilson IsidorFWDSunderland
Patrick RobertsFWD~72 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.92/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.74/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.15/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 41 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Eliezer Mayenda DossouFWD~61 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.72/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.12/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.10/90 over 31 apps → model prices 2.04/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
George HirstFWDIpswich Town~41 min · starts 44%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 44% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.32/90 over 31 apps → model prices 2.93/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.59/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.85/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.98/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mouhamadou DiarraMIDSunderland~70 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.77/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.43/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.29/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dennis CirkinDEF~76 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.61/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.10/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.49/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Reinildo Isnard MandavaDEFSunderland
Brian BrobbeyFWDSunderland~62 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.64/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.69/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.40/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Romaine MundleFWDSunderland~51 min · starts 53%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 53% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.08/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.97/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.23/90 over 25 apps → model prices 2.10/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.97/90 over 25 apps → model prices 2.01/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Darnell FurlongDEFIpswich Town~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.24/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.74/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.44/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Conor ChaplinFWD~35 min · starts 31%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 31% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.21/90 over 4 apps → model prices 3.00/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.01/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.13/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 4 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Noah SadikiMIDSunderland~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.24/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.59/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.99/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Granit XhakaMIDSunderland~85 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.18/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.67/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Azor MatusiwaMIDIpswich Town~86 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.23/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.19/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.03/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nordi Mukiele MulereDEFSunderland
Simon AdingraFWDSunderland~47 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.67/90 over 9 apps → model prices 2.09/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.42/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.03/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Leif DavisDEFIpswich Town~85 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.17/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.76/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 69 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Enzo Le FéeMIDSunderland~79 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.27/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.16/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel NeillMID
Omar Federico Alderete FernándezDEFSunderland~85 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~37 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.36/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.95/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Chuba AkpomFWDIpswich Town
Jack ClarkeFWDIpswich Town~46 min · starts 45%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 45% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.47/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.96/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.29/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.00/90 over 39 apps → model prices 2.00/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Chemsdine TalbiFWDSunderland~56 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.54/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.19/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.06/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Chris RiggMIDSunderland
Luke O'NienDEFSunderland~79 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.43/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.22/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.76/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alan BrowneMIDSunderland
Trai HumeDEFSunderland~84 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 79 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.84/90 over 79 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.92/90 over 79 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 79 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 79 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kasey McAteerMIDIpswich Town~46 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.71/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.83/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.51/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.46/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Benjamin JohnsonDEFIpswich Town~55 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.39/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.48/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.48/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel BallardDEFSunderland~69 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.26/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.11/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jacob GreavesDEFIpswich Town
Dara O'SheaDEFIpswich Town~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.79/90 over 81 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.83/90 over 81 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 81 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.50/90 over 81 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 81 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jack TaylorMIDIpswich Town~42 min · starts 39%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 39% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.29/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.45/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.68/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.35/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.17/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ajibola AleseDEFSunderland~59 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.28/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.28/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.13/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 8 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Wes BurnsMIDIpswich Town~48 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.89/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.18/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.01/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cedric KipreDEFIpswich Town~81 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~4 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.70/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.80/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.70/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.35/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Leo Fuhr HjeldeDEFSunderland~26 min · starts 29%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~26 minutes: starts 29% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~6 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.02/90 over 5 apps → model prices 2.07/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.00/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.00/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.51/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ali Al-HamadiFWDIpswich Town~12 min · starts 0%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~12 minutes: starts 0% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.01/90 over 1 apps → model prices 4.20/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 1 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.45/90 over 1 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.12/90 over 1 apps → model prices 3.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 1 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ashley YoungDEF~30 min · starts 23%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~30 minutes: starts 23% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 3 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.37/90 over 3 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.37/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.00/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 3 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.