Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Birmingham City v Bristol City · Championship · Saturday 22 August at 12:30 · 222 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Max O’LearyGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.07/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.11/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.32/90 over 53 apps → model prices 2.79/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
James BeadleGKBirmingham City~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.38/90 over 35 apps → model prices 2.35/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.16/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ryan AllsopGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 1.73/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.25/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.45/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jay StansfieldFWD~75 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.03/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.27/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.73/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.54/90 over 44 apps → model prices 2.36/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Demarai GrayFWD~62 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.01/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.08/90 over 37 apps → model prices 2.53/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.99/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.83/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Patrick RobertsFWD~63 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.72/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.38/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.22/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.06/90 over 35 apps → model prices 2.32/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marvin DuckschFWD~60 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.43/90 over 33 apps → model prices 2.41/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.41/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.40/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.99/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Carlos Vicente RoblesFWD~58 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.91/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.66/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.59/90 over 17 apps → model prices 2.44/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.04/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
August PriskeFWD~54 min · starts 53%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 53% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.64/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.54/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.28/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.58/90 over 17 apps → model prices 2.52/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Emil Riis JakobsenFWD~66 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.89/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.04/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.73/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.81/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jason KnightMID~87 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.74/90 over 82 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.17/90 over 82 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.68/90 over 82 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 82 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.96/90 over 82 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 82 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tomoki IwataMID~84 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~35 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.27/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.80/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.22/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.39/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Seung-Ho PaikMID~79 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~34 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.09/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.09/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.35/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.19/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kyogo FuruhashiFWD~36 min · starts 29%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 29% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.14/90 over 28 apps → model prices 2.78/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.68/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.02/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.00/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yu HirakawaFWDBristol City~36 min · starts 34%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 34% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.41/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 4.80/90 over 62 apps → model prices 2.74/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.99/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.40/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Keshi AndersonFWD~38 min · starts 37%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~38 minutes: starts 37% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.27/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.40/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.70/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.13/90 over 19 apps → model prices 2.58/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.72/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adam RandellMID~83 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.25/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.21/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.78/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jhon Elmer Solis RomeroMIDBirmingham City~65 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.44/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.54/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.40/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.19/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.46/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Scott TwineMID~68 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.00/90 over 81 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.72/90 over 81 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.23/90 over 81 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 81 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.99/90 over 81 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 81 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lewis KoumasFWD~33 min · starts 30%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 30% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.98/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.75/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.31/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.71/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.86/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.76/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sam MorsyMID~65 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~35 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.79/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.87/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.98/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.29/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sinclair ArmstrongFWD~41 min · starts 36%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 36% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 78 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.79/90 over 78 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.37/90 over 78 apps → model prices 1.86/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.35/90 over 78 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.67/90 over 78 apps → model prices 1.98/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 78 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Thomas DoyleMID~50 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.14/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.00/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.15/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.93/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ross McCrorieDEF~71 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.38/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.84/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.47/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.08/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 64 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joe WilliamsMID~55 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.89/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.52/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.45/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tomi HorvatMID~57 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.72/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.76/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.41/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.89/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marc LeonardMID~46 min · starts 33%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 33% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.07/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.28/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.85/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.07/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Phil NeumannDEF~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.34/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.05/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.76/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.19/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Max BirdMID~67 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.49/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.47/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.47/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.43/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Christoph KlarerDEF~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.93/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.09/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.70/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.49/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Noah EileDEF~84 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~1 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.07/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.47/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.13/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kai WagnerDEF~87 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.06/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.88/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.33/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.75/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Zak VynerDEF~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.42/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.73/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.24/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.06/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 75 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cameron PringDEF~66 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.40/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.49/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.05/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.53/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.44/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Robert DickieDEF~84 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.60/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.37/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.90/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.13/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.54/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 70 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Robert AtkinsonDEF~74 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.43/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.22/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.22/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.31/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
George TannerDEF~70 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.91/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.03/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.33/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.09/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Willum Þór WillumssonMID~39 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~8 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.20/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.57/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.67/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jack RobinsonDEF~75 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.56/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.87/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.59/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Vivaldo Borges dos Santos NetoDEF~72 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.96/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.89/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.60/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Samuel John BellFWD~23 min · starts 9%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~23 minutes: starts 9% of his matches (~60 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 5.03/90 over 35 apps → model prices 2.48/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.06/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 4.25/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.34/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.90/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alexander CochraneDEF~73 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.57/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.49/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.24/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.17/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Bright Osayi-SamuelDEF~58 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.41/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.50/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.09/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.06/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Fally MayuluFWD~21 min · starts 16%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~21 minutes: starts 16% of his matches (~54 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.38/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.70/90 over 25 apps → model prices 2.41/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.83/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.73/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.56/90 over 25 apps → model prices 2.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ethan LairdDEF~43 min · starts 45%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 45% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.04/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.82/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.09/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.83/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hayden RobertsDEF~49 min · starts 43%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 43% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.75/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.43/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.