Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Millwall v Wrexham · Championship · Wednesday 2 September at 19:45 · 171 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Arthur OkonkwoGK~88 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~1 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.08/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.92/90 over 38 apps → model prices 3.06/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Max CrocombeGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.17/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Saves: career 3.39/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.54/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Femi AzeezMID~69 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.60/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.69/90 over 58 apps → model prices 3.01/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.83/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mihailo IvanovićFWD~63 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.65/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.10/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.17/90 over 60 apps → model prices 2.65/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 60 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Josh CoburnFWD~66 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.93/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.45/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.99/90 over 38 apps → model prices 2.46/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kieffer MooreFWD~69 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.58/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.25/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.73/90 over 30 apps → model prices 2.19/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Thierno BalloFWD~60 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.78/90 over 25 apps → model prices 2.30/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.01/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.44/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Josh WindassMID~59 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.00/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.94/90 over 31 apps → model prices 2.33/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.68/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Camiel NeghliFWD~71 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.46/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.53/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.91/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lewis O'BrienMID~71 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.84/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.20/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.11/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nathan BroadheadFWD~51 min · starts 54%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 54% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.34/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.06/90 over 21 apps → model prices 2.05/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.25/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aidomo EmakhuFWD~36 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.75/90 over 20 apps → model prices 2.80/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.75/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.86/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Caleb TaylorDEF~80 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.27/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.57/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.65/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Japhet TangangaDEF~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.01/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.07/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.83/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 42 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ryan LeonardDEF~73 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.33/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.50/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.46/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jake CooperDEF~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.10/90 over 83 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 83 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.62/90 over 83 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.96/90 over 83 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 83 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ben SheafMID~66 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.27/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.13/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.34/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Macaulay LangstaffFWD~38 min · starts 36%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~38 minutes: starts 36% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.63/90 over 31 apps → model prices 2.36/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.89/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tristan CramaDEF~87 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.21/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.83/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.46/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
James McCleanMID~57 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.75/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.17/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.49/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
George DobsonMID~73 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.61/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.18/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.54/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ra'ees Bangura-WilliamsFWD~44 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~44 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.69/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.38/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.18/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.94/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Liberato CacaceDEF~60 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.06/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.00/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.96/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 8 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joe BryanDEF~69 min · starts 74%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 74% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.28/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.96/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luke CundleMID~45 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~45 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.83/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.80/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.97/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sam SmithFWD~39 min · starts 40%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 40% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.67/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.87/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.94/90 over 18 apps → model prices 2.02/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.14/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dominic HyamDEF~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.75/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.39/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.65/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Callum DoyleDEF~85 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~38 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.91/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.69/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.47/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Oliver RathboneMID~45 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~45 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.84/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.57/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.37/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.57/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alfie DoughtyMID~53 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.71/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.43/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.30/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
George ThomasonMID~76 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.82/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.89/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.71/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ryan LongmanMID~62 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.19/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.54/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.11/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Casper De NorreMID~78 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.76/90 over 74 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 74 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 74 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.40/90 over 74 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 74 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Zak SturgeDEF~63 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.18/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.82/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.49/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Billy MitchellMID~62 min · starts 69%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 69% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.49/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.29/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Max CleworthDEF~88 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~1 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.68/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.70/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.20/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Derek Mazou-SackoMID~51 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.75/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.92/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.67/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tommy WatsonFWD~20 min · starts 17%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~20 minutes: starts 17% of his matches (~54 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 2 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.32/90 over 2 apps → model prices 2.80/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.65/90 over 2 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 2 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Will SmallboneMID~33 min · starts 40%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 40% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.35/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.05/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 3 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.52/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 3 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matty JamesMID~60 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.50/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.64/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.46/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel KellyMID~35 min · starts 27%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 27% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.92/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.22/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 4 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dan ScarrDEF~67 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.34/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.27/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.61/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Barry BannanMID~36 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.49/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.54/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.13/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 6 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Wes HardingDEF~30 min · starts 31%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~30 minutes: starts 31% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~8 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.57/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.00/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.71/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 4 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ryan BarnettDEF~35 min · starts 33%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 33% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.00/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.91/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.00/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 4 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.