Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
FC Augsburg v Schalke 04 · Bundesliga · Sunday 30 August at 16:30 · 118 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Finn DahmenGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 3.19/90 over 53 apps → model prices 3.07/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.02/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.05/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.21/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Michael GregoritschFWD~54 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.29/90 over 17 apps → model prices 2.09/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.82/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.02/90 over 17 apps → model prices 4.35/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.66/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.89/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.45/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Phillip TietzFWD~43 min · starts 43%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 43% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.28/90 over 44 apps → model prices 2.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.87/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.62/90 over 44 apps → model prices 2.06/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.46/90 over 44 apps → model prices 5.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Elias SaadFWD~50 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~63 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.71/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.81/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.61/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.11/90 over 10 apps → model prices 4.38/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Samuel EssendeFWD~47 min · starts 52%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 52% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.95/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.71/90 over 44 apps → model prices 2.44/90 for this match
Fouls: career 7.59/90 over 44 apps → model prices 3.38/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.26/90 over 44 apps → model prices 4.57/90 for this match
Cards: career 2.28/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rodrigo Duarte RibeiroFWD~45 min · starts 43%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~45 minutes: starts 43% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.73/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.93/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.60/90 over 14 apps → model prices 4.60/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.74/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.91/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.82/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alexis Claude MauriceMID~74 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.77/90 over 57 apps → model prices 2.51/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.83/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.73/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.15/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Robin FellhauerMID~83 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~55 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.06/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.99/90 over 34 apps → model prices 2.01/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.83/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.32/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Fabian RiederMID~74 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.46/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.19/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.99/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.15/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.18/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.91/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Anton KadeMID~62 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.00/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.64/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.78/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.43/90 over 28 apps → model prices 2.38/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Han-Noah MassengoMID~74 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.68/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.99/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.15/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.17/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.66/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kristijan JakićMID~70 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.04/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.99/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.00/90 over 57 apps → model prices 2.01/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.37/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Elvis RexhbecajMID~55 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.48/90 over 53 apps → model prices 2.25/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.33/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.85/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.80/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.99/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mert KömürMID~44 min · starts 46%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~44 minutes: starts 46% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.57/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.74/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.30/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.78/90 over 48 apps → model prices 2.71/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Keven SchlotterbeckDEF~79 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.80/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.78/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.14/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.28/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 42 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jeffrey GouweleeuwDEF~86 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.20/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.69/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.37/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.59/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Arthur Largura ChavesDEF~75 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~34 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.10/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.82/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.32/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.37/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Arne MaierMID~32 min · starts 24%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~32 minutes: starts 24% of his matches (~63 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.00/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.90/90 over 29 apps → model prices 2.58/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.76/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.85/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Chrislain MatsimaDEF~84 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.29/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.06/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.55/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.45/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cédric ZesigerDEF~72 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.15/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.10/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.62/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.62/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 42 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dimitris GiannoulisDEFFC Augsburg~79 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.20/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.76/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.44/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.70/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Noahkai Kai Daniel BanksDEF~65 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.94/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.87/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.41/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.20/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marius WolfDEF~52 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.32/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.22/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.85/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.12/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mads PedersenDEF~31 min · starts 21%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~31 minutes: starts 21% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.24/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.75/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.37/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.