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Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Deportivo La Coruña v Valencia · La Liga · Sunday 30 August at 18:30 · 92 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Stole DimitrievskiGKValencia~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.17/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.42/90 over 24 apps → model prices 3.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Guido RodríguezMIDValencia~82 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.78/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.34/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.01/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.45/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.17/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.35/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
César Tárrega RequeniDEFValencia~85 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.50/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.45/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.55/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.96/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hugo Duro PeralesFWDValencia~62 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.33/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.94/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.74/90 over 56 apps → model prices 2.57/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.96/90 over 56 apps → model prices 2.68/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Umar Sadiq MesbahFWDValencia~48 min · starts 47%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 47% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.11/90 over 20 apps → model prices 3.35/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.33/90 over 20 apps → model prices 2.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.49/90 over 20 apps → model prices 3.44/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Arnaut Danjuma GroeneveldFWDValencia~54 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.96/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.99/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.96/90 over 21 apps → model prices 2.75/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Domingos André Ribeiro AlmeidaMIDValencia~54 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.64/90 over 40 apps → model prices 2.38/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.80/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.12/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Diego López NoguerolFWDValencia~63 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.82/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.41/90 over 58 apps → model prices 2.03/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.26/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.83/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
José Luis Gayá PeñaDEFValencia~78 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.20/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.54/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.71/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luis Jesús Rioja GonzálezFWDValencia~75 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.17/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.50/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.05/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 69 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Javier Guerra MorenoMIDValencia~65 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.20/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.75/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.46/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.88/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.98/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
José Manuel Arias CopeteDEFValencia~84 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~46 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.23/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.50/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.65/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
José Luis García VayáMIDValencia
Dimitri FoulquierDEFValencia
Filip UgrinicMIDValencia~56 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.81/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.35/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.70/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.01/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.68/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jesus Vazquez AlcaldeDEFValencia~44 min · starts 40%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~44 minutes: starts 40% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.00/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.17/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.90/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.56/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sergi Canós TenesFWDValencia~22 min · starts 12%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~22 minutes: starts 12% of his matches (~59 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 3 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.29/90 over 3 apps → model prices 3.33/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.55/90 over 3 apps → model prices 3.02/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.10/90 over 3 apps → model prices 2.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 3 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mouctar DiakhabyDEFValencia~57 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.11/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.72/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.56/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel Raba AntolíFWDValencia~20 min · starts 23%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~20 minutes: starts 23% of his matches (~52 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 2 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.53/90 over 2 apps → model prices 2.93/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.93/90 over 2 apps → model prices 2.72/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.07/90 over 2 apps → model prices 3.48/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 2 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.