Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Nottingham Forest v Leeds United · Premier League · Saturday 22 August at 15:00 · 197 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Lucas Estella PerriGKLeeds United~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.38/90 over 16 apps → model prices 3.00/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.19/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.06/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matz SelsGKNottingham Forest~88 min · starts 99%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 99% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 3.18/90 over 68 apps → model prices 2.84/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.21/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 68 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Morgan Gibbs-WhiteMIDNottingham Forest~84 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.19/90 over 70 apps → model prices 2.00/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.23/90 over 70 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.96/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 70 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dominic Calvert-LewinFWDLeeds United~78 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.39/90 over 31 apps → model prices 2.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.49/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.27/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Igor Jesus Maciel da CruzFWDNottingham Forest~63 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.71/90 over 31 apps → model prices 2.58/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.54/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.58/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Chris WoodFWDNottingham Forest~76 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.02/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.15/90 over 46 apps → model prices 2.08/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.72/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel JamesFWDLeeds United~58 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.28/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.16/90 over 36 apps → model prices 2.75/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.69/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joël PiroeFWDLeeds United
Gabriel GudmundssonDEFLeeds United~83 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.58/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.07/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.89/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Brenden AaronsonMIDLeeds United~73 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 74 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.97/90 over 74 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.89/90 over 74 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.71/90 over 74 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 74 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Anton StachMIDLeeds United~82 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.04/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.35/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.62/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ibrahim SangaréMIDNottingham Forest
Ethan AmpaduMIDLeeds United~85 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.47/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.62/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.20/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Degnand Wilfried GnontoFWDLeeds United~43 min · starts 45%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 45% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.12/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.00/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.76/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.23/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.12/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Neco WilliamsDEFNottingham Forest~81 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.85/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.27/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.46/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Noah OkaforFWDLeeds United~56 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.91/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.02/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.89/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ryan YatesMIDNottingham Forest~45 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~45 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.13/90 over 29 apps → model prices 2.11/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.39/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.44/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.22/90 over 29 apps → model prices 2.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jayden BogleDEFLeeds United
Callum Hudson-OdoiFWDNottingham Forest~67 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.48/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.75/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.55/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ao TanakaMIDLeeds United
Ilia GruevMIDLeeds United~66 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.59/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.18/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.81/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mateo Joseph Fernández RegatilloFWDLeeds United~33 min · starts 28%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 28% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.51/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.92/90 over 12 apps → model prices 2.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Temitayo Olufisayo Olaoluwa AinaDEFNottingham Forest~87 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.45/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.98/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.71/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
James JustinDEFLeeds United~65 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.95/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.77/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.43/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolò SavonaDEFNottingham Forest~73 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.41/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.38/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.86/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dilane BakwaFWDNottingham Forest
Nicolás Martín DomínguezMIDNottingham Forest~52 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.30/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.87/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.12/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Omari Giraud-HutchinsonFWDNottingham Forest
Largie RamazaniFWDLeeds United~28 min · starts 24%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~28 minutes: starts 24% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.44/90 over 6 apps → model prices 2.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.08/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.30/90 over 6 apps → model prices 2.64/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 6 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Murillo Santiago Costa dos SantosDEFNottingham Forest~87 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.85/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.24/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lukas NmechaFWDLeeds United~35 min · starts 32%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 32% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.48/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.98/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.30/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.65/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jaka BijolDEFLeeds United~76 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.58/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.33/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.28/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sean LongstaffMIDLeeds United~44 min · starts 43%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~44 minutes: starts 43% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.94/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.23/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.99/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dan NdoyeFWDNottingham Forest~49 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.04/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.18/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.74/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Felipe RodriguesDEFNottingham Forest~48 min · starts 43%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 43% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.27/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.36/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joe RodonDEFLeeds United~88 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.50/90 over 80 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 80 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.58/90 over 80 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.67/90 over 80 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 80 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Taiwo Michael AwoniyiFWDNottingham Forest~21 min · starts 14%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~21 minutes: starts 14% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.50/90 over 8 apps → model prices 2.44/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.07/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.95/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.32/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.93/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 8 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nikola MilenkovićDEFNottingham Forest~89 min · starts 99%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 99% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.60/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.34/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.56/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 75 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sebastiaan BornauwDEFLeeds United~37 min · starts 42%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 42% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~7 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.45/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.15/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.53/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 6 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sam ByramDEFLeeds United~38 min · starts 42%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~38 minutes: starts 42% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~8 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.07/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.00/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.79/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
James McateeMIDNottingham Forest~21 min · starts 14%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~21 minutes: starts 14% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 3 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.94/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.17/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.88/90 over 3 apps → model prices 2.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 3 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.