Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Ipswich Town v Liverpool · Premier League · Friday 4 September at 20:00 · 174 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Giorgi MamardashviliGKLiverpool~87 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.86/90 over 10 apps → model prices 3.46/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.18/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.05/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
AlissonGKLiverpool~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.02/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.07/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.51/90 over 54 apps → model prices 3.00/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.17/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alex PalmerGKIpswich Town~87 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.67/90 over 22 apps → model prices 2.71/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.23/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mohamed SalahFWD~85 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~38 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.59/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.90/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.20/90 over 63 apps → model prices 2.73/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Christian WaltonGKIpswich Town~90 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~66 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.70/90 over 44 apps → model prices 2.60/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.16/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hugo EkitikéFWDLiverpool~65 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.64/90 over 22 apps → model prices 2.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.48/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.75/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.59/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.02/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jaden PhilogeneFWDIpswich Town~55 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.05/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.93/90 over 30 apps → model prices 2.97/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.21/90 over 30 apps → model prices 2.20/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cody GakpoFWDLiverpool~66 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.17/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.71/90 over 58 apps → model prices 2.45/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.46/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dominik SzoboszlaiMIDLiverpool~80 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.30/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.22/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.99/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.85/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marcelino NúñezMIDIpswich Town~60 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.74/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.52/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.45/90 over 26 apps → model prices 2.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sindre Walle EgeliFWDIpswich Town~53 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.69/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.54/90 over 18 apps → model prices 2.58/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.58/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Anis MehmetiMIDIpswich Town~57 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.35/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.74/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.33/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.20/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.96/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Florian WirtzMIDLiverpool~72 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.44/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.77/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.10/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alexis Mac AllisterMIDLiverpool~73 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.26/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.61/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.68/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.47/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alexander IsakFWDLiverpool~50 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.86/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.06/90 over 8 apps → model prices 2.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.40/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 8 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ryan GravenberchMIDLiverpool~85 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.85/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.37/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.23/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 72 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
George HirstFWDIpswich Town~41 min · starts 44%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 44% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.32/90 over 31 apps → model prices 2.70/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.98/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.59/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Darnell FurlongDEFIpswich Town~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.74/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.44/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.24/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Leif DavisDEFIpswich Town~85 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.17/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.76/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 69 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Azor MatusiwaMIDIpswich Town~86 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.19/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.23/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.03/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Conor BradleyDEFLiverpool~50 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.49/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.73/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.77/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.71/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.81/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jack ClarkeFWDIpswich Town~46 min · starts 45%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 45% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.29/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.47/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.80/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.00/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.97/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Conor ChaplinFWD~38 min · starts 42%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~38 minutes: starts 42% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.06/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.99/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Chuba AkpomFWDIpswich Town~31 min · starts 24%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~31 minutes: starts 24% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 3.01/90 over 8 apps → model prices 2.42/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.06/90 over 8 apps → model prices 2.75/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.27/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 8 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kasey McAteerMIDIpswich Town~46 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.46/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.51/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.71/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.80/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nathan BroadheadFWD~38 min · starts 37%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~38 minutes: starts 37% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.25/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.68/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.34/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.06/90 over 7 apps → model prices 2.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jeremie FrimpongDEFLiverpool~50 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.73/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.43/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.12/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Milos KerkezDEFLiverpool~67 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.86/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.44/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.29/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ben JohnsonDEFIpswich Town~55 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.48/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.39/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.48/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jacob GreavesDEFIpswich Town~87 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.51/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.85/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.93/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rio NgumohaFWDLiverpool~29 min · starts 26%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~29 minutes: starts 26% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.98/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.50/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.48/90 over 5 apps → model prices 2.35/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dara O'SheaDEFIpswich Town~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.83/90 over 81 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.50/90 over 81 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.79/90 over 81 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 81 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 81 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jack TaylorMIDIpswich Town~42 min · starts 39%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 39% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.29/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.17/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.45/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.35/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Curtis JonesMIDLiverpool~54 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.20/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.14/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 41 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dan NeilMID~41 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.18/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 8 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Harvey ElliottMIDLiverpool~20 min · starts 11%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~20 minutes: starts 11% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.57/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.27/90 over 4 apps → model prices 3.08/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.00/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 4 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Wes BurnsMIDIpswich Town~48 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.01/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.18/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.89/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cédric KipréDEFIpswich Town~81 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~4 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.35/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.70/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.70/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.80/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Virgil van DijkDEFLiverpool~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.41/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.48/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.76/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 75 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Konstantinos TsimikasDEFLiverpool~46 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.73/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.95/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.95/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ali Al-HamadiFWDIpswich Town~12 min · starts 0%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~12 minutes: starts 0% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.45/90 over 1 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.01/90 over 1 apps → model prices 3.90/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.12/90 over 1 apps → model prices 2.94/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 1 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joe GomezDEFLiverpool~37 min · starts 43%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 43% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.68/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.19/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Federico ChiesaFWDLiverpool~14 min · starts 6%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~14 minutes: starts 6% of his matches (~62 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.73/90 over 2 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.18/90 over 2 apps → model prices 2.08/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.73/90 over 2 apps → model prices 2.37/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 2 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 2 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ashley YoungDEF~30 min · starts 23%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~30 minutes: starts 23% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.30/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.27/90 over 3 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.08/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.36/90 over 3 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 3 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Wataru EndoMIDLiverpool~16 min · starts 7%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~16 minutes: starts 7% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.35/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.70/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.90/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.05/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.