Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Blackburn Rovers v Queens Park Rangers · Championship · Saturday 29 August at 15:00 · 260 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Joe WalshGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 3.00/90 over 24 apps → model prices 2.92/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.21/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Balázs TóthGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.07/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.07/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.85/90 over 40 apps → model prices 2.43/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aynsley PearsGK~88 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~1 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.15/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.49/90 over 53 apps → model prices 2.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yuki OhashiFWD~69 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 82 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.95/90 over 82 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.59/90 over 82 apps → model prices 2.30/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.82/90 over 82 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.39/90 over 82 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 82 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Richard KoneFWD~77 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.09/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.69/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.87/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.38/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andri Lucas GuojohnsenFWD~62 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.57/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.75/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.64/90 over 25 apps → model prices 2.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.33/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ryan HedgesFWD~63 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.40/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.07/90 over 66 apps → model prices 2.00/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.56/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.40/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mathias JörgensenFWD~55 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.33/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.86/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.22/90 over 20 apps → model prices 2.28/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.63/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rumarn BurrellFWD~67 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.93/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.84/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.53/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.40/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.11/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Todd CantwellMID~70 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.52/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.40/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.65/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.44/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 65 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Paul Nardi~90 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~71 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.03/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.31/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.00/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.03/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.42/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Makhtar GueyeFWD~40 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~40 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.65/90 over 60 apps → model prices 2.78/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.20/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.91/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.03/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.96/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.39/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 60 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lewis TravisMID~85 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.85/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.37/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.46/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Koki SaitoFWD~59 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.53/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.49/90 over 73 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.40/90 over 73 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.69/90 over 73 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.01/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 73 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Paul SmythFWD~59 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 79 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.71/90 over 79 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.66/90 over 79 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.63/90 over 79 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.44/90 over 79 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 79 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Žan CelarFWD~49 min · starts 52%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 52% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.39/90 over 21 apps → model prices 2.00/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.29/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.62/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.52/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rayan KolliFWD~43 min · starts 44%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 44% of his matches (~64 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.57/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.77/90 over 43 apps → model prices 2.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.10/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.84/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Michael FreyFWD~50 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.82/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.94/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.03/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.93/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.59/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 42 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ryoya MorishitaMID~72 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.13/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.18/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.61/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.40/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Augustus KargboFWD~35 min · starts 28%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 28% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.89/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.30/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.02/90 over 18 apps → model prices 2.64/90 for this match
Fouls: career 4.09/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.96/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sondre TronstadMID~83 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.77/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.99/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.68/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.15/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Karamoko Kader DembéléMID~53 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.27/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.71/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.80/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.63/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jonathan VaraneMID~66 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.73/90 over 75 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.68/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.62/90 over 75 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.13/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 75 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Harvey ValeMID~70 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.07/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.27/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.02/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.44/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ilias ChairMID~62 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.93/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.36/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.83/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.64/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Moussa BaradjiMIDBlackburn Rovers~55 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.70/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.88/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.68/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.55/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Harry PickeringDEF~59 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.33/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Fouls: career 4.33/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.13/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.85/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yuri Oliveira RibeiroDEF~77 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.04/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.66/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.36/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.64/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Amadou Salif MbengueDEF~77 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.54/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.66/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.01/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.66/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 41 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jimmy DunneDEF~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.99/90 over 84 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.32/90 over 84 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.99/90 over 84 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.67/90 over 84 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 84 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 84 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lewis MillerDEF~74 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.80/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.01/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.76/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Isaac HaydenMID~51 min · starts 52%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 52% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.17/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.79/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.17/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.74/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.36/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kieran MorganMID~51 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.57/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.58/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.53/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.48/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.03/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolas Martin Hautorp MadsenMID~68 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.57/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.50/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.02/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.39/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 69 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ronnie EdwardsDEF~88 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.42/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.10/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.36/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.73/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel BennieFWD~30 min · starts 21%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~30 minutes: starts 21% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.97/90 over 29 apps → model prices 2.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.47/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.98/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.22/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.48/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hayden CarterDEF~83 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.25/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.31/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.58/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sidnei Wilson Vieira David TavaresMID~44 min · starts 46%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~44 minutes: starts 46% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.12/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.76/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.58/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kwame PokuFWD~30 min · starts 31%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~30 minutes: starts 31% of his matches (~55 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.34/90 over 16 apps → model prices 2.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.28/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.28/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.32/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.51/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sean McLoughlinDEF~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.19/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.65/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.64/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.73/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dion De NeveMID~36 min · starts 33%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 33% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.30/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.44/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.76/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.71/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tom AtchesonDEF~78 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.92/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.00/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.13/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.14/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ryan AlebiousuDEF~82 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.81/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.63/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.16/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dominic HyamDEF~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.75/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.64/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.06/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.39/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
George PrattDEF~81 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.10/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.40/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.20/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adam ForshawMID~45 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~45 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.32/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.43/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.45/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.00/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.64/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Liam MorrisonDEF~76 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.76/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.26/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.75/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Axel HenrikssonMID~42 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.33/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.08/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.48/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.25/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.36/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kristi MontgomeryMID~39 min · starts 33%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 33% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.30/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.27/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.67/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jake Clarke-SalterDEF~60 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.23/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.38/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.16/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.04/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.80/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Steve CookDEF~78 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.73/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.19/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.37/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.66/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Scott WhartonDEF~67 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.53/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.45/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.25/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.66/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
João Henrique Mendes da SilvaDEF~39 min · starts 44%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 44% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.06/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.82/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.53/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.49/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.