Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen v FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga · Saturday 5 September at 14:30 · 161 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Frederik RönnowGK~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.12/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.07/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.61/90 over 57 apps → model prices 3.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Janis BlaswichGK~85 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 3.97/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.97/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mark FlekkenGK~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 3.86/90 over 24 apps → model prices 2.82/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.10/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Patrik SchickFWD~63 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.97/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.07/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.48/90 over 47 apps → model prices 3.89/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ibrahim MazaMID~66 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.55/90 over 25 apps → model prices 2.70/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.65/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.74/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.05/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andrej IlicFWD~67 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.50/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.73/90 over 40 apps → model prices 2.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.20/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Christian KofaneFWD~43 min · starts 41%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 41% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.02/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.91/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.94/90 over 16 apps → model prices 3.53/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.09/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nathan TellaFWD~51 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.13/90 over 29 apps → model prices 2.52/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.42/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.04/90 over 29 apps → model prices 2.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rani KhediraMIDFC Union Berlin~87 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.59/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.59/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.55/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Malik TillmanMID~58 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.79/90 over 21 apps → model prices 2.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.50/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ernest PokuFWD~51 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.74/90 over 20 apps → model prices 2.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.07/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.27/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Montrell CulbreathFWD~62 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.52/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.92/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.44/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Oliver BurkeFWD~58 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.11/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.87/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.35/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.61/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Martin TerrierFWD~38 min · starts 42%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~38 minutes: starts 42% of his matches (~63 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.64/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.33/90 over 18 apps → model prices 2.84/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.17/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
András SchäferMID~55 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.64/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.81/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.86/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.05/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Leopold QuerfeldDEF~77 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.84/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.92/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.35/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ilyas AnsahFWD~58 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.05/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.48/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jonas HofmannMID~40 min · starts 44%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~40 minutes: starts 44% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.83/90 over 18 apps → model prices 2.34/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.32/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.19/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ezequiel FernándezMID~50 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.16/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.97/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.94/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.83/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Diogo LeiteDEF~85 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~45 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.00/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.28/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.55/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Robert SkovMID~59 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.98/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.27/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.56/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Edmond TapsobaDEF~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.15/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.14/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.88/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Derrick KöhnDEF~66 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.22/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.89/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.07/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Exequiel PalaciosMID~54 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.50/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.79/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.62/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Robert AndrichMID~76 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.73/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.21/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.86/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
ArthurDEF~47 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.76/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.78/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.59/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aljoscha KemleinMID~65 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.86/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.13/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.36/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aleix GarcíaMID~68 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.36/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.61/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.97/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Janik HabererMID~61 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.12/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.70/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.98/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Livan BurcuFWD~36 min · starts 33%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 33% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.82/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.01/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.23/90 over 7 apps → model prices 2.07/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.61/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Woo-yeong JeongMID~48 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.23/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.18/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.40/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tom RotheDEF~57 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.21/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.64/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.13/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jarell QuansahDEF~82 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.37/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.73/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.60/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.80/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Christopher TrimmelDEF~66 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.36/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.91/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.34/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Stanley NsokiDEF~63 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.62/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.22/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.85/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Eliesse Ben SeghirFWD~25 min · starts 20%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~25 minutes: starts 20% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.68/90 over 2 apps → model prices 2.56/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.05/90 over 2 apps → model prices 1.70/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.68/90 over 2 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 2 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marin LjubicicFWD~19 min · starts 7%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~19 minutes: starts 7% of his matches (~46 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.52/90 over 4 apps → model prices 2.29/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.08/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.52/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.64/90 over 4 apps → model prices 3.07/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 4 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lucas VázquezDEF~40 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~40 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~63 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.16/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.67/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.40/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tim SkarkeFWD~32 min · starts 26%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~32 minutes: starts 26% of his matches (~59 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.07/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.30/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Loïc BadéDEF~72 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.55/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.72/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.29/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jeanuël BelocianDEF~28 min · starts 31%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~28 minutes: starts 31% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.39/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.17/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.98/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.80/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Josip JuranovicDEF~54 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.53/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.60/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.53/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alex KrálMID~22 min · starts 10%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~22 minutes: starts 10% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.02/90 over 2 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.67/90 over 2 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 2 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.83/90 over 2 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 2 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.