Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Real Betis v Real Sociedad · La Liga · Friday 21 August at 20:00 · 216 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Juan Camilo Hernández SuárezFWDReal Betis~80 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.16/90 over 47 apps → model prices 3.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.77/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.12/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alejandro Remiro GargalloGKReal Sociedad~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.55/90 over 73 apps → model prices 2.92/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.21/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 73 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Antony Matheus dos SantosFWDReal Betis~78 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~33 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.13/90 over 47 apps → model prices 3.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.82/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.67/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.81/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Álvaro Vallés RosaGKReal Betis~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.14/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Saves: career 3.14/90 over 28 apps → model prices 2.61/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Abdessamad EzzalzouliFWDReal Betis
Giovani Lo CelsoMIDReal Betis~58 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.11/90 over 40 apps → model prices 2.33/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.16/90 over 40 apps → model prices 3.40/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.58/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Brais Méndez PortelaMID
Takefusa KuboFWDReal Sociedad~65 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.61/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.73/90 over 50 apps → model prices 2.53/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.68/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Francisco Román Alarcón SuárezMIDReal Betis~59 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.57/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.72/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.68/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.72/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.26/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jon Mikel Aramburu MejíasDEFReal Sociedad~75 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.49/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.57/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.99/90 over 61 apps → model prices 2.05/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mikel Oyarzabal UgarteFWDReal Sociedad
Igor Zubeldía ElorzaDEFReal Sociedad~82 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.57/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.38/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.36/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marc Roca JunquéMIDReal Betis~68 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.79/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.74/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.93/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.86/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ander Barrenetxea MuguruzaFWDReal Sociedad
Gonçalo Manuel Ganchinho GuedesFWDReal Sociedad~57 min · starts 69%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 69% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.22/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.95/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.64/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jon Gorrotxategi EtxanizMIDReal Sociedad~74 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.08/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.54/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.29/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luis Ezequiel ÁvilaFWD~36 min · starts 32%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 32% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.02/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.21/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.31/90 over 11 apps → model prices 3.01/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.44/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jon Pacheco DozagaratDEFReal Sociedad~61 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.14/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.43/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.18/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sergi Altimira ClavellMID~63 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.51/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.36/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.91/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Javier López CarballoDEFReal Sociedad~67 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.31/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.30/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.70/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pablo Fornals MallaMIDReal Betis~74 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.28/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.77/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sergio Gómez MartínDEFReal Sociedad~76 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.50/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.19/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.52/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aitor Ruibal GarcíaFWDReal Betis~56 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.20/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.45/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.29/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jon Martín VicenteDEFReal Sociedad~83 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~51 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.34/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.69/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.09/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yangel Clemente Herrera RaveloMIDReal Sociedad~44 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~44 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.67/90 over 7 apps → model prices 2.01/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.39/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.41/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.67/90 over 7 apps → model prices 2.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rodrigo Riquelme RecheFWDReal Betis~32 min · starts 28%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~32 minutes: starts 28% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.25/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.50/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.92/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.96/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cédric BakambuFWD
Luka SučićMIDReal Sociedad~56 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.01/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.74/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.67/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Carlos Soler BarragánMIDReal Sociedad~71 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.90/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.39/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.16/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Beñat Turrientes ImazMIDReal Sociedad~48 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.47/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.65/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.98/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ángel Ortiz MonterreyDEFReal Betis~52 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.48/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.69/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.21/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Diego Valentín GómezDEFReal Betis~67 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.28/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.62/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.51/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nelson Alexander Deossa SuárezMIDReal Betis~37 min · starts 40%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 40% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.83/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.92/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.99/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.29/90 over 9 apps → model prices 2.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Héctor Junior Firpo AdamesDEFReal Betis~69 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.88/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.50/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.34/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Orri Steinn ÓskarssonFWDReal Sociedad~41 min · starts 40%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 40% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.69/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.81/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.94/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.00/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pablo Marín TejadaMIDReal Sociedad~48 min · starts 51%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 51% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.16/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.19/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.31/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Iker Losada AragundeFWDReal Betis~34 min · starts 30%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~34 minutes: starts 30% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.41/90 over 5 apps → model prices 2.33/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.47/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.47/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Diego Javier Llorente RíosDEFReal Betis
Pablo García FernándezFWDReal Betis~23 min · starts 11%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~23 minutes: starts 11% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.37/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.48/90 over 5 apps → model prices 2.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.85/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.91/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.59/90 over 5 apps → model prices 2.80/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aihen Muñoz CapellánDEFReal Sociedad~47 min · starts 52%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 52% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.04/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.57/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.57/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Natan Bernardo de SouzaDEFReal Betis~78 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.44/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.80/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.33/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ricardo Iván Rodríguez ArayaDEF~64 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.82/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.41/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.41/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Arsen ZakharyanMIDReal Sociedad~26 min · starts 20%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~26 minutes: starts 20% of his matches (~57 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.69/90 over 5 apps → model prices 2.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.37/90 over 5 apps → model prices 2.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.00/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marc Bartra AregallDEFReal Betis~82 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~38 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.56/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.67/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.73/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Héctor Bellerín MorunoDEFReal Betis
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.