Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Burnley v West Ham United · Championship · Sunday 16 August at 16:00 · 188 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Alphonse AreolaGK~88 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~54 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.02/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Saves: career 3.55/90 over 46 apps → model prices 3.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mads HermansenGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.02/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.11/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Saves: career 3.60/90 over 18 apps → model prices 2.94/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Zian FlemmingFWD~66 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.98/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.41/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.01/90 over 64 apps → model prices 3.03/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.34/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 64 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jarrod BowenFWD~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.32/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.81/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.41/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.55/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.91/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 72 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luca KoleoshoFWDBurnley~60 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.39/90 over 28 apps → model prices 2.57/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.56/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.81/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.40/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 5.72/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.96/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Valentín Mariano José Castellanos GiménezFWD~78 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~64 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.64/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.94/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.45/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.53/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.53/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marcus EdwardsFWD~54 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.58/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.40/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.73/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.69/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.12/90 over 37 apps → model prices 2.69/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lyle FosterFWD~55 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 3.16/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.80/90 over 54 apps → model prices 2.59/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.84/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.93/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Crysencio SummervilleFWD~65 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.71/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.93/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.67/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.23/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.91/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pablo Felipe Pereira de JesusFWD~59 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 3.54/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.22/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.93/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.43/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.29/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Josh CullenMID~86 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.55/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.59/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.23/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.32/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jacob Bruun LarsenFWD~37 min · starts 36%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 36% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.12/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.14/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.46/90 over 28 apps → model prices 2.89/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.00/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lucas Tolentino Coelho de LimaMID~77 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.09/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.50/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.35/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.95/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.37/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Armando BrojaFWD~35 min · starts 33%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 33% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.75/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.49/90 over 24 apps → model prices 2.88/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.88/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.29/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Chimuanya UgochukwuMID~67 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.22/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.87/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.24/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.37/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hannibal MejbriMID~50 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.78/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.28/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.99/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.48/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.35/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.38/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 64 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Niclas FüllkrugFWDWest Ham United~46 min · starts 42%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 42% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.29/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.83/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.47/90 over 26 apps → model prices 2.07/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.99/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.78/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Edson Omar Álvarez VelázquezMIDWest Ham United~64 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.42/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.93/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.68/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.78/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tomáš SoučekMID~68 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.79/90 over 70 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.75/90 over 70 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.67/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.66/90 over 70 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 70 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
James Ward-ProwseMIDWest Ham United~73 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.53/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.98/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.05/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.22/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Josh LaurentMID~56 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.20/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.35/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.16/90 over 75 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.15/90 over 75 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.70/90 over 75 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 75 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jean-Clair TodiboDEF~73 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.14/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.19/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.74/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
El Hadji Malick DioufDEF~85 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.93/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.13/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.57/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.89/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Freddie PottsMIDWest Ham United~53 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.03/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.46/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.09/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.41/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aaron Wan-BissakaDEF~86 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.08/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.67/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.26/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Axel TuanzebeDEF~86 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.89/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.32/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.05/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.11/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kyle Andrew WalkerDEF~86 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~8 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.64/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.15/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.98/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Bashir HumphreysDEF~75 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.09/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.53/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.83/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.14/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Soungoutou MagassaMID~45 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~45 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.88/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.38/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.10/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.51/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Max KilmanDEF~83 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~7 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.68/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.07/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.25/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.34/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hjalmar EkdalDEF~81 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.26/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.32/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.05/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.37/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lucas Pires SilvaDEF~78 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.28/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.13/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.75/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.83/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kyle Walker-PetersDEF~60 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.79/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.37/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.73/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Oliver ScarlesDEF~47 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.47/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.30/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Cards: career 2.00/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.53/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Konstantinos MavropanosDEF~72 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.32/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.71/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.48/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.82/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 64 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ashley BarnesFWDBurnley~9 min · starts 5%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~9 minutes: starts 5% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~5 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.39/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Shots: career 6.72/90 over 20 apps → model prices 4.61/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 5.28/90 over 20 apps → model prices 2.88/90 for this match
Fouls: career 5.95/90 over 20 apps → model prices 3.44/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joe WorrallDEF~39 min · starts 40%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 40% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~8 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.35/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.15/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.74/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andrew IrvingMID~19 min · starts 18%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~19 minutes: starts 18% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 5.36/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.82/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.07/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.55/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.42/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mohamadou KantéMID~7 min · starts 0%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~7 minutes: starts 0% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~7 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 6.06/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.86/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.30/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.34/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.73/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.