Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Birmingham City v Southampton · Championship · Tuesday 1 September at 19:45 · 247 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Aaron RamsdaleGKSouthampton~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Saves: career 4.10/90 over 30 apps → model prices 3.48/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.13/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alex McCarthyGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 3.17/90 over 12 apps → model prices 3.01/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.25/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel PeretzGK~91 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~91 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~91 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.28/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.62/90 over 22 apps → model prices 2.96/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gavin BazunuGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.48/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.20/90 over 19 apps → model prices 2.82/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
James BeadleGKBirmingham City~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.38/90 over 35 apps → model prices 2.36/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.16/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ryan AllsopGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 1.73/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.26/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.45/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jay StansfieldFWD~75 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.03/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.54/90 over 44 apps → model prices 2.58/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.73/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.27/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Demarai GrayFWD~62 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.08/90 over 37 apps → model prices 2.76/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.01/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.83/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.99/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Patrick RobertsFWD~63 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.72/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.06/90 over 35 apps → model prices 2.54/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.22/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.38/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marvin DuckschFWD~60 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.43/90 over 33 apps → model prices 2.63/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.41/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.99/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.40/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Carlos Vicente RoblesFWD~58 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.04/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.59/90 over 17 apps → model prices 2.66/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.66/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.91/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
August PriskeFWD~54 min · starts 53%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 53% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.28/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.64/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.58/90 over 17 apps → model prices 2.75/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.54/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Leonardo Weschenfelder-ScienzaMID~66 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.94/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.16/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 4.63/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.89/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adam ArmstrongFWD~67 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.56/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.15/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.61/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.86/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.98/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tomoki IwataMID~84 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~35 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.27/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.22/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.80/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.39/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Seung-Ho PaikMID~79 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~34 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.09/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.19/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.09/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.35/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kyogo FuruhashiFWD~36 min · starts 29%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 29% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.68/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.00/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.14/90 over 28 apps → model prices 3.04/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.02/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Keshi AndersonFWD~38 min · starts 37%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~38 minutes: starts 37% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.72/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.74/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.13/90 over 19 apps → model prices 2.82/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.40/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.73/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.27/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Flynn DownesMID~76 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.63/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.28/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.13/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.40/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.28/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 65 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jhon Elmer Solis RomeroMIDBirmingham City~65 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.40/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.54/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.19/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.46/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.44/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cyle LarinFWDSouthampton~53 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.88/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.94/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.20/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.31/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.89/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.38/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lewis KoumasFWD~33 min · starts 30%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 30% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.71/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.89/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.98/90 over 23 apps → model prices 3.01/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.76/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.31/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.83/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Caspar JanderMID~78 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.03/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.16/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.61/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Thomas DoyleMID~50 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.15/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.14/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.93/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.00/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.73/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Finn AzazMID~74 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.08/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.86/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.83/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ryan FraserFWD~50 min · starts 54%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 54% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.58/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.22/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.26/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.55/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cameron ArcherFWD~38 min · starts 37%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~38 minutes: starts 37% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.73/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.74/90 over 65 apps → model prices 2.03/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.62/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.57/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 65 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marc LeonardMID~46 min · starts 33%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 33% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.85/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.28/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.07/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.07/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Welington Damascena SantosDEF~51 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.56/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.51/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.82/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Fouls: career 4.75/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ross StewartFWD~38 min · starts 41%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~38 minutes: starts 41% of his matches (~63 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.22/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.04/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.10/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.08/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.93/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joshua QuarshieDEF~73 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~2 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.31/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.16/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.47/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kuryu MatsukiMID~51 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.68/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.66/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.28/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.26/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Phil NeumannDEF~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.34/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.76/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.19/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.05/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tom FellowsMID~60 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.46/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.76/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.31/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.25/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Christoph KlarerDEF~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.09/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.93/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.49/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.70/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kai WagnerDEF~87 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.75/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.33/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.06/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.88/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Taylor Harwood-BellisDEF~87 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.32/90 over 77 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.82/90 over 77 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.81/90 over 77 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.89/90 over 77 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 77 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 77 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ryan ManningDEF~71 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.36/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.18/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.33/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 69 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Willum Þór WillumssonMID~39 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~8 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.67/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.20/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.57/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joe AriboMID~55 min · starts 54%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 54% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.80/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.85/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.25/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.74/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cameron BraggMID~40 min · starts 41%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~40 minutes: starts 41% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.82/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.19/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.06/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.55/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.46/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alexander CochraneDEF~73 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.17/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.49/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.24/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.57/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jack RobinsonDEF~75 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.87/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.56/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.59/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
James BreeDEF~74 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.35/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.22/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jack StephensDEF~80 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.49/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.14/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.33/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.40/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Samuel EdozieFWD~25 min · starts 13%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~25 minutes: starts 13% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.54/90 over 16 apps → model prices 2.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.59/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.84/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.26/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.53/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.88/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Bright Osayi-SamuelDEF~58 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.09/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.06/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.41/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.50/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nathan Wood-GordonDEF~72 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.55/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.33/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.61/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.04/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Damion DownsFWDSouthampton~25 min · starts 9%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~25 minutes: starts 9% of his matches (~62 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.86/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.98/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.11/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.39/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.13/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.22/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ethan LairdDEF~43 min · starts 45%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 45% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.82/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.04/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.09/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.83/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ronnie EdwardsDEF~57 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~5 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.73/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.42/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.36/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.10/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yukinari SugawaraDEFSouthampton~51 min · starts 53%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 53% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.53/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.37/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.90/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.21/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.43/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.