Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Watford v West Ham United · Championship · Saturday 29 August at 15:00 · 225 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Alphonse AreolaGK~88 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~54 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 3.55/90 over 46 apps → model prices 3.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.02/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mads HermansenGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 3.60/90 over 18 apps → model prices 3.01/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.11/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.02/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Egil SelvikGK~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.09/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.96/90 over 56 apps → model prices 2.49/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel BachmannGKWatford~87 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 3.09/90 over 22 apps → model prices 2.50/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.50/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luca KjerrumgaardFWDWatford~67 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.20/90 over 43 apps → model prices 2.60/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.32/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.43/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Othmane MaammaFWD~66 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.21/90 over 25 apps → model prices 2.63/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.90/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.30/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.02/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Edo KayembeMID~70 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.60/90 over 81 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 81 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.99/90 over 81 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.48/90 over 81 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.19/90 over 81 apps → model prices 2.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 81 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jarrod BowenFWD~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.91/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.32/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.41/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.55/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 72 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Valentín Mariano José Castellanos GiménezFWD~78 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~64 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.53/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.64/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.90/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.53/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.45/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nestory IrankundaFWD~51 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 1.16/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.29/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.89/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.27/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.63/90 over 40 apps → model prices 2.81/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mamadou DoumbiaFWD~51 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.51/90 over 52 apps → model prices 2.79/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.64/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.08/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.92/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.75/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rocco VataFWD~46 min · starts 47%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 47% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.76/90 over 45 apps → model prices 2.89/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.95/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.03/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.54/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Imran LouzaMID~84 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.47/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.79/90 over 75 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.09/90 over 75 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.71/90 over 75 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 75 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kwadwo BaahFWD~42 min · starts 41%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 41% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.53/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.85/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.81/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.78/90 over 54 apps → model prices 2.95/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.68/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Crysencio SummervilleFWD~65 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.71/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.23/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.87/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.93/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.67/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ayotomiwa Dele-BashiruMIDWatford~74 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~7 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.30/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.95/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.79/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.59/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pablo Felipe Pereira de JesusFWD~59 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.43/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.54/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.29/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.22/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.89/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Thomas InceFWD~39 min · starts 39%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 39% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.07/90 over 59 apps → model prices 2.82/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.38/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.76/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.22/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lucas Tolentino Coelho de LimaMID~77 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.37/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.95/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.50/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.35/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.09/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hector KyprianouMID~77 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.86/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.14/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.24/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.42/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Vivaldo Leandro Semedo Moura SousaFWD~27 min · starts 23%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~27 minutes: starts 23% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 3.24/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Shots: career 5.45/90 over 26 apps → model prices 3.54/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.04/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.38/90 over 26 apps → model prices 2.07/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Niclas FüllkrugFWDWest Ham United~46 min · starts 42%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 42% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.99/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.78/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.47/90 over 26 apps → model prices 2.02/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.29/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.81/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Edson Omar Álvarez VelázquezMIDWest Ham United~64 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.78/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.93/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.42/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.68/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nampalys MendyMID~61 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.04/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.22/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.57/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.92/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tomáš SoučekMID~68 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.66/90 over 70 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.79/90 over 70 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.75/90 over 70 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.67/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 70 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
James Ward-ProwseMIDWest Ham United~73 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.05/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.53/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.22/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.98/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pierre DwomohMID~53 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.80/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.67/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.64/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Moussa SissokoMID~61 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.96/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.70/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.54/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.23/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 60 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jean-Clair TodiboDEF~73 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.74/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.19/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.14/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
El Hadji Malick DioufDEF~85 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.13/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.93/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.57/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.89/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Freddie PottsMIDWest Ham United~53 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.03/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.46/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.41/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.09/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aaron Wan-BissakaDEF~86 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.08/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.26/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.67/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marc BolaDEF~78 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.93/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.96/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.62/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.24/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matthew PollockDEF~84 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.15/90 over 80 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.65/90 over 80 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.54/90 over 80 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 80 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.93/90 over 80 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 80 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Soungoutou MagassaMID~45 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~45 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.88/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.51/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.38/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.10/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Max KilmanDEF~83 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~7 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.25/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.68/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.34/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.07/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jeremy NgakiaDEF~73 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.47/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.15/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.93/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jérémy PétrisDEF~53 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.63/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.29/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.40/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.12/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kyle Walker-PetersDEF~60 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.73/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.79/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.37/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Oliver ScarlesDEF~47 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Cards: career 2.00/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.30/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.47/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.53/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Konstantinos MavropanosDEF~72 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.71/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.82/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.32/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.48/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 64 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kévin KebenDEF~68 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.77/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.85/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.03/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.20/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ryan AndrewsDEF~52 min · starts 51%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 51% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.59/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.38/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.23/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.48/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.53/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 41 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
James MorrisDEF~55 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.62/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Cards: career 1.68/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.10/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.13/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Edoardo BoveMID~24 min · starts 18%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~24 minutes: starts 18% of his matches (~60 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.81/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.66/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.71/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.32/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.85/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.52/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andrew IrvingMID~19 min · starts 18%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~19 minutes: starts 18% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 5.36/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.42/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.55/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.75/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.07/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.82/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mohamadou KantéMID~7 min · starts 0%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~7 minutes: starts 0% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~7 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 6.06/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.82/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.34/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.30/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.