Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Bologna v Lazio · Serie A · Monday 24 August at 17:30 · 208 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Mattia ZaccagniFWD~80 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.67/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.25/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.60/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.34/90 over 60 apps → model prices 2.36/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 60 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Łukasz SkorupskiGK~86 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 1.84/90 over 46 apps → model prices 2.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.27/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Riccardo OrsoliniFWD~62 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.02/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.42/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.00/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.90/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.77/90 over 65 apps → model prices 2.75/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 65 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jon RoweFWD~58 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.66/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.98/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.79/90 over 28 apps → model prices 2.56/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.78/90 over 28 apps → model prices 2.07/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Valentín Mariano José Castellanos GiménezFWD~77 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.53/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.53/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.89/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.45/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.64/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.83/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matteo CancellieriFWD~58 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.77/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.16/90 over 30 apps → model prices 2.38/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.50/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.67/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gustav Tang IsaksenFWD~57 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.11/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.40/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.64/90 over 67 apps → model prices 2.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolò CambiaghiFWD~46 min · starts 46%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 46% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.99/90 over 46 apps → model prices 2.53/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 4.67/90 over 46 apps → model prices 2.71/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.52/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.91/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Benjamín DomínguezFWD~47 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.50/90 over 39 apps → model prices 2.62/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.76/90 over 39 apps → model prices 2.17/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.82/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.86/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kenneth TaylorMID~83 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.80/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.38/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.17/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.97/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Federico BernardeschiFWD~42 min · starts 41%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 41% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.63/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.52/90 over 29 apps → model prices 2.81/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.46/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.32/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mattéo Guendouzi OliéMID~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.83/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.33/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.06/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.86/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Thijs DallingaFWD~36 min · starts 37%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 37% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 4.22/90 over 54 apps → model prices 3.10/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.58/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.14/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.88/90 over 54 apps → model prices 2.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolò RovellaMID~74 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.34/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.70/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.47/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Danilo CataldiMID~74 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~41 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.02/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.34/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 4.12/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Remo FreulerMID~82 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.41/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.08/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.70/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jens OdgaardMID~61 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.25/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.21/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.24/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.13/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tijanni NoslinFWD~34 min · starts 29%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~34 minutes: starts 29% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.08/90 over 59 apps → model prices 2.06/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls: career 4.11/90 over 59 apps → model prices 2.83/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.14/90 over 59 apps → model prices 2.60/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.84/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lewis FergusonMID~60 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.52/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.58/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.99/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.50/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alessio RomagnoliDEF~84 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.19/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.46/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.45/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 64 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tommaso PobegaMIDBologna~56 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.47/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.39/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.99/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.57/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.34/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Boulaye DiaFWDLazio~56 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.84/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.63/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.89/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pedro Eliezer Rodríguez LedesmaFWD~35 min · starts 25%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 25% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.15/90 over 59 apps → model prices 2.06/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.39/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.15/90 over 59 apps → model prices 2.60/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.86/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nuno Albertino Varela TavaresDEF~69 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.10/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.75/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.29/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.13/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Torbjørn HeggemDEF~78 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.52/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.74/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.44/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Martin VitíkDEF~70 min · starts 74%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 74% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~36 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.84/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.46/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.44/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adam MarušićDEF~75 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.86/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.71/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.37/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.49/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 68 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Manuel LazzariDEF~49 min · starts 52%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 52% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.20/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.34/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.39/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.85/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Juan Miranda GonzálezDEF~77 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.20/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.60/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.04/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.20/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nadir ZorteaDEF~57 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.94/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.81/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.19/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.78/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Reda BelahyaneMID~42 min · starts 32%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 32% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.10/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.24/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.60/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.36/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.17/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.92/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jhon Janer Lucumí BonillaDEF~80 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~34 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.07/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.83/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.60/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.35/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luca PellegriniDEF~55 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.62/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.90/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.35/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.69/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nikola MoroMID~58 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.75/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.20/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.10/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Oliver Provstgaard NielsenDEF~56 min · starts 46%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 46% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.49/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.07/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.25/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.50/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.43/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Fisayo Dele-BashiruMID~48 min · starts 52%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 52% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.20/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.47/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.39/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolò CasaleDEF~59 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.60/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.42/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.60/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.07/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Charalampos LykogiannisDEF~62 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.59/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.22/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.54/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.34/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Patricio Gabarrón GilDEF~53 min · starts 46%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 46% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.61/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.38/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.04/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.39/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Emil HolmDEFBologna~56 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.19/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.16/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.60/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.95/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lorenzo De SilvestriDEFBologna~52 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.66/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.19/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.67/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.39/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Elseid HysajDEF~37 min · starts 31%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 31% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.15/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.26/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.43/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.