Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Cagliari v Inter · Serie A · Sunday 30 August at 19:45 · 197 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Josep Martínez RieraGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.10/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.05/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.20/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.82/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yann SommerGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.25/90 over 66 apps → model prices 2.61/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.06/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Elia CaprileGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.93/90 over 56 apps → model prices 2.61/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.23/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lautaro Javier MartínezFWD~78 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.47/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.74/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.76/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.86/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.70/90 over 61 apps → model prices 2.25/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sebastiano EspositoFWDCagliari~75 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~33 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.65/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.77/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.18/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.92/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.06/90 over 36 apps → model prices 2.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marcus ThuramFWD~69 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.97/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.38/90 over 61 apps → model prices 2.24/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.41/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.88/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.93/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Zito André Sebastiao LuvumboFWD~51 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.28/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 4.69/90 over 38 apps → model prices 2.71/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.26/90 over 38 apps → model prices 2.26/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.00/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.35/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gennaro BorrelliFWD~47 min · starts 48%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 48% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 3.72/90 over 27 apps → model prices 2.39/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.48/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.84/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.91/90 over 27 apps → model prices 2.32/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.74/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Federico DimarcoDEF~72 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.48/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 2.16/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.56/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.56/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 68 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Francesco Pio EspositoFWD~45 min · starts 43%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~45 minutes: starts 43% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.94/90 over 35 apps → model prices 2.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.22/90 over 35 apps → model prices 2.40/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.43/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.93/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.20/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Semih KılıçsoyFWD~44 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~44 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.69/90 over 22 apps → model prices 2.34/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.47/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.13/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.96/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.73/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.45/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolò BarellaMID~75 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.10/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.65/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.01/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.23/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ange-Yoan BonnyFWD~34 min · starts 30%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~34 minutes: starts 30% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.35/90 over 33 apps → model prices 2.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.34/90 over 33 apps → model prices 2.96/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.05/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.96/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.83/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mattia FeliciFWD~42 min · starts 41%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 41% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.08/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.82/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.35/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.43/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.99/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.44/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hakan ÇalhanoğluMID~71 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.96/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.64/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.57/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.29/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.37/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Davide FrattesiMID~34 min · starts 24%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~34 minutes: starts 24% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.98/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 5.43/90 over 50 apps → model prices 2.80/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.62/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.86/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 2.24/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alessandro BastoniDEF~77 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.12/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.56/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.69/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.20/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Henrikh MkhitaryanMID~64 min · starts 74%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 74% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.36/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.59/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.06/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.48/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Manuel Obafemi AkanjiDEF~86 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.51/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.75/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.75/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.26/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yerry Fernando Mina GonzálezDEF~83 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.29/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.67/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.20/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.85/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Michel Ndary AdopoMID~75 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~36 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.25/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.69/90 over 73 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.26/90 over 73 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.82/90 over 73 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 73 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gabriele ZappaDEF~69 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.38/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.38/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.06/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 68 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Benjamin PavardDEFInter~70 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.38/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.42/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.23/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.08/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Petar SučićMID~53 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.61/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.79/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.15/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.19/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.49/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sebastiano LupertoDEF~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.79/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.47/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Juan Martín Rodríguez CamejoDEF~77 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~7 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.12/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.14/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.51/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.20/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alessandro DeiolaMID~59 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.74/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.67/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.67/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.47/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.36/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
José Pedro da Silva Figueiredo FreitasDEF~74 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.70/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.47/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.34/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Francesco AcerbiDEF~75 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.05/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.72/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.32/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.95/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 41 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yann Aurel BisseckDEF~71 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.36/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.09/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.64/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adam ObertDEF~69 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.35/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.55/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.28/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.92/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.49/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matteo DarmianDEF~58 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.65/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.42/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.34/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kristjan AsllaniMIDInter~46 min · starts 45%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 45% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.31/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.40/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.13/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matteo PratiMIDCagliari~58 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.41/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.59/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.82/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.02/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Piotr ZielińskiMID~51 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.53/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.90/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.01/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.40/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 60 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luis Henrique Tomaz de LimaMID~54 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.30/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.17/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.00/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.91/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Stefan de VrijDEF~65 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.15/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.31/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.44/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.54/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Carlos Augusto Zopalato NevesDEF~54 min · starts 52%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 52% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.20/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.49/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.20/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.36/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Leonardo PavolettiFWD~17 min · starts 5%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~17 minutes: starts 5% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.94/90 over 39 apps → model prices 2.94/90 for this match
Fouls: career 8.51/90 over 39 apps → model prices 3.77/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.07/90 over 39 apps → model prices 2.15/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.83/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.82/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andy DioufMID~25 min · starts 21%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~25 minutes: starts 21% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.86/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.86/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.08/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.84/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.08/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.47/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Riyad IdrissiDEF~33 min · starts 17%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 17% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.10/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.72/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.48/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.72/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.41/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.