Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Blackburn Rovers · Championship · Friday 14 August at 19:00 · 237 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Balázs TóthGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.85/90 over 40 apps → model prices 3.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.07/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.07/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Aynsley PearsGK~88 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~1 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.49/90 over 53 apps → model prices 2.90/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.15/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.07/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sam JohnstoneGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 3.26/90 over 19 apps → model prices 2.51/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.00/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
José Pedro Malheiro de SáGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.63/90 over 52 apps → model prices 2.36/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.31/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adam ArmstrongFWD~82 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.15/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.61/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.20/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.56/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.98/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yuki OhashiFWD~69 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 82 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.82/90 over 82 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.59/90 over 82 apps → model prices 2.00/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.39/90 over 82 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.95/90 over 82 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 82 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Toluwalase Emmanuel ArokodareFWDWolverhampton Wanderers~43 min · starts 39%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 39% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 4.14/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.96/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.52/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.97/90 for this match
Shots: career 5.98/90 over 33 apps → model prices 3.03/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.85/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andri Lucas GuojohnsenFWD~62 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.57/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.64/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.95/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.75/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.33/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yerson MosqueraDEF~81 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.33/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.46/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.09/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 4.51/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.26/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jhon Adolfo Arias AndradeFWD~49 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.74/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.12/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.35/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.65/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.15/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Todd CantwellMID~70 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.52/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.40/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.44/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.65/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 65 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ryan HedgesFWD~63 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.07/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.74/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.40/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.40/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.56/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mathias JörgensenFWD~55 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.33/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.86/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.22/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.98/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.63/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lewis TravisMID~85 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.37/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.46/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.85/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marshall Nyasha MunetsiMIDWolverhampton Wanderers~72 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.88/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.39/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.48/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.27/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hee-Chan HwangFWD~45 min · starts 49%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~45 minutes: starts 49% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.01/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.33/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.29/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.85/90 over 47 apps → model prices 2.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Makhtar GueyeFWD~40 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~40 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.20/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.65/90 over 60 apps → model prices 2.42/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.03/90 over 60 apps → model prices 2.07/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.91/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.39/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 60 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
André Trindade da Costa NetoMID~77 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.45/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.32/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.35/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.04/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 68 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mateus ManéMID~64 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.83/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.79/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.20/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.14/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sondre TronstadMID~83 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.99/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.15/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.68/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.77/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ryoya MorishitaMID~72 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.40/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.61/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.18/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.13/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Harry PickeringDEF~59 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 4.33/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.85/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.13/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.33/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Augustus KargboFWD~35 min · starts 28%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 28% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.02/90 over 18 apps → model prices 2.30/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 4.09/90 over 18 apps → model prices 2.07/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.89/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.30/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jean-Ricner BellegardeMID~48 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.40/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.30/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.72/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.42/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Angel GomesMID~39 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~58 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.12/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Shots: career 8.11/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.87/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.22/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.86/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Moussa BaradjiMIDBlackburn Rovers~55 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.70/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.88/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.68/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.55/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yuri Oliveira RibeiroDEF~77 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.64/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.04/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.36/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.66/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hayden CarterDEF~83 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.58/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.31/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.25/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lewis MillerDEF~74 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.76/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.01/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.80/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ladislav KrejčíDEF~84 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~47 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.07/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.71/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.27/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.41/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dion De NeveMID~36 min · starts 33%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 33% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.76/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.30/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.44/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.71/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tom AtchesonDEF~78 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.92/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.00/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.13/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.14/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sean McLoughlinDEF~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.65/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.73/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.19/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.64/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ryan AlebiousuDEF~82 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.16/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.81/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.63/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dominic HyamDEF~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.75/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.06/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.39/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.64/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
George PrattDEF~81 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.20/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.10/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.40/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Santiago Ignacio Bueno SciuttoDEF~73 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.28/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.17/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.36/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.31/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sidnei Wilson Vieira David TavaresMID~44 min · starts 46%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~44 minutes: starts 46% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.76/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.12/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.58/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Axel HenrikssonMID~42 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.33/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.36/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.48/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.08/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.25/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Emmanuel AgbadouDEF~84 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~37 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.72/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.58/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.35/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adam ForshawMID~45 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~45 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.43/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.32/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.45/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.00/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.64/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tote António GomesDEF~81 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.10/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.57/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.25/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.80/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kristi MontgomeryMID~39 min · starts 33%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 33% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.27/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.67/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.30/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rodrigo Martins GomesMID~38 min · starts 34%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~38 minutes: starts 34% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.77/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.56/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.61/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.34/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Scott WhartonDEF~67 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.45/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.66/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.53/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.25/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hugo BuenoDEF~68 min · starts 74%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 74% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.17/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.97/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.78/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.63/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pedro Henrique Cardoso de LimaDEF~28 min · starts 33%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~28 minutes: starts 33% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.45/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.69/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.84/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Fouls: career 9.62/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jackson TchatchouaDEF~59 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.60/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.06/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.39/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.38/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
David Møller WolfeDEF~48 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.14/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.28/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.49/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; all probabilities are estimates with sampling error of roughly ±1% at this iteration count.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.