Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Portsmouth v Derby County · Championship · Tuesday 1 September at 19:45 · 266 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Jacob Widell ZetterströmGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.85/90 over 72 apps → model prices 2.96/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.28/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 72 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Josh VickersGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.40/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.81/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.39/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolas SchmidGK~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.69/90 over 69 apps → model prices 2.32/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.01/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.22/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 69 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Josef BursikGK~81 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.30/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.50/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.37/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Josh MurphyFWD~79 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.76/90 over 58 apps → model prices 2.32/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.80/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.93/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.65/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Callum LangFWD~76 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 1.02/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.22/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.82/90 over 40 apps → model prices 2.36/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.04/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.45/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Colby BishopFWD~82 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 74 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.97/90 over 74 apps → model prices 2.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.48/90 over 74 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.70/90 over 74 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.05/90 over 74 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 74 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gustavo CaballeroFWD~64 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.17/90 over 12 apps → model prices 2.35/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.40/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.88/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.34/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adrian SegečićFWD~60 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.82/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.41/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.61/90 over 38 apps → model prices 2.40/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Conor ChaplinFWD~62 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.93/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.30/90 over 36 apps → model prices 2.31/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.38/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.65/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Patrick AgyemangFWD~75 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.96/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.69/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.92/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.19/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.90/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ben BreretonFWD~77 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.02/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.69/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.95/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.35/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Carlton MorrisFWD~69 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.26/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.65/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.82/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.92/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.88/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Florian BianchiniFWD~51 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.12/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.64/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.91/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.55/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.50/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ebou AdamsMID~77 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.88/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.22/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.48/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.22/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.11/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.88/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.48/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.11/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lars-Jørgen SalvesenFWD~25 min · starts 23%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~25 minutes: starts 23% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 2.71/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.20/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 11.38/90 over 39 apps → model prices 4.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 4.38/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Shots: career 6.27/90 over 39 apps → model prices 2.87/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
John SwiftMID~57 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.22/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.84/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.70/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.65/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lewis TravisMID~80 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.37/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.46/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.85/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rhian BrewsterFWD~51 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.30/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.29/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.42/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.03/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.95/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Samuel SzmodicsMIDDerby County~86 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.98/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.61/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.13/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.50/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mackenzie KirkFWD~32 min · starts 29%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~32 minutes: starts 29% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.90/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.70/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.05/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.74/90 for this match
Shots: career 5.53/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.88/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 2.05/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Bobby ClarkMIDDerby County~70 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.26/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.80/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.21/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.01/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 42 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marlon PackMID~65 min · starts 69%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 69% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.28/90 over 75 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.84/90 over 75 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.27/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.32/90 over 75 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 75 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Connor OgilvieDEF~86 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.82/90 over 77 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.81/90 over 77 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.42/90 over 77 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 77 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 77 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 77 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kayden JacksonFWD~46 min · starts 46%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 46% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 1.57/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.71/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.79/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.47/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.87/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.66/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.83/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 65 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jacob BrownFWD~33 min · starts 33%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 33% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.57/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.96/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.76/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.85/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.35/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.58/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andre DozzellMID~79 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 76 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.18/90 over 76 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 76 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.46/90 over 76 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.53/90 over 76 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 76 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kenzo GoudmijnMIDDerby County~55 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.47/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.82/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.96/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.26/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Corey TaylorFWD~32 min · starts 29%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~32 minutes: starts 29% of his matches (~63 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.48/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.44/90 over 21 apps → model prices 2.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.75/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.71/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matt ClarkeDEF~88 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.89/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.62/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Harvey BlairFWD~29 min · starts 26%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~29 minutes: starts 26% of his matches (~53 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.95/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.92/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.20/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.85/90 over 27 apps → model prices 2.52/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.80/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.49/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Curtis NelsonDEF~85 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 3.38/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.24/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.79/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.11/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joe WardMID~69 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.29/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.54/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.45/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.98/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dion SandersonDEF~83 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~3 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.14/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.59/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.04/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Liam ThompsonMIDDerby County~59 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.38/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.99/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.05/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.67/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.44/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Terry DevlinDEF~57 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.96/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.49/90 over 72 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.30/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.20/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 72 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Derry John MurkinDEF~82 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.62/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.59/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.13/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sondre Klingen LangåsDEF~81 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.45/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.21/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.89/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Regan PooleDEF~85 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~36 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.31/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.80/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 68 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Thomas WaddinghamFWD~17 min · starts 9%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~17 minutes: starts 9% of his matches (~55 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 8.43/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.31/90 over 11 apps → model prices 3.00/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.41/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.74/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.50/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Fouls: career 25.80/90 over 11 apps → model prices 3.87/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andreas WeimannFWD~28 min · starts 20%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~28 minutes: starts 20% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.58/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.06/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.74/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.43/90 over 25 apps → model prices 2.27/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luke Le RouxMID~47 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.51/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.07/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.53/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.00/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Márk KosznovszkyMID~43 min · starts 40%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 40% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.05/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.73/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.42/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Zak SwansonDEF~67 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.89/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.77/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.29/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.32/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ryan NyambeDEF~58 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.32/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.04/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.35/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.04/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dajaune BrownFWD~24 min · starts 19%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~24 minutes: starts 19% of his matches (~62 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.72/90 over 16 apps → model prices 2.07/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.21/90 over 16 apps → model prices 2.32/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.69/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.31/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Josh KnightDEF~69 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.43/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.09/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.50/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Max JohnstonDEF~66 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.27/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.33/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.26/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.00/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ibane BowatDEFPortsmouth~47 min · starts 47%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 47% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 1.06/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.44/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.19/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.63/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Shots: career 5.78/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Craig ForsythDEF~64 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.41/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.68/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.52/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jordan WilliamsDEFPortsmouth~61 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.09/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.17/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.64/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.15/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Oscar FrauloMID~25 min · starts 11%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~25 minutes: starts 11% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.52/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls: career 4.18/90 over 19 apps → model prices 2.01/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.37/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.14/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.38/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Conor ShaughnessyDEF~59 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.17/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.59/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.45/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.79/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hayden MatthewsDEF~58 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.43/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.12/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.