Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Manchester City v Coventry City · Premier League · Saturday 5 September at 15:00 · 170 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Erling HaalandFWDManchester City~87 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.60/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.70/90 over 65 apps → model prices 3.69/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.76/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 65 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Carl RushworthGKCoventry City~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.60/90 over 46 apps → model prices 3.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.23/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Oliver DovinGKCoventry City~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.11/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.48/90 over 28 apps → model prices 3.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gianluigi DonnarummaGKManchester City~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.29/90 over 34 apps → model prices 2.41/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.12/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Omar MarmoushFWDManchester City~51 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.50/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.09/90 over 24 apps → model prices 3.68/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Antoine SemenyoFWDManchester City~83 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.93/90 over 17 apps → model prices 2.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.82/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.80/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Phil FodenMIDManchester City~63 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.54/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.49/90 over 46 apps → model prices 2.64/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.38/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Haji WrightFWDCoventry City~69 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.06/90 over 54 apps → model prices 2.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.14/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.26/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rayan CherkiMIDManchester City~54 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.56/90 over 24 apps → model prices 2.70/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.42/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
SavinhoFWDManchester City~49 min · starts 53%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 53% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.81/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.55/90 over 31 apps → model prices 2.79/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.51/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tijjani ReijndersMIDManchester City~58 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.70/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.30/90 over 20 apps → model prices 2.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Frank OnyekaMIDCoventry City~73 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.54/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.90/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.70/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jérémy DokuFWDManchester City~56 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.79/90 over 42 apps → model prices 2.07/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.91/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.37/90 over 42 apps → model prices 2.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 42 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jack RudoniMIDCoventry City~78 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.10/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.13/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Brandon Thomas-AsanteFWDCoventry City~49 min · starts 51%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 51% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.04/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.92/90 over 39 apps → model prices 2.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.19/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mateo KovacicMIDManchester City~63 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.06/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.79/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.98/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ephron Mason-ClarkMIDCoventry City~65 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.82/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.11/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.93/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ellis SimmsFWDCoventry City~46 min · starts 48%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 48% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.96/90 over 43 apps → model prices 2.40/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.28/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.91/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
RodriMIDManchester City~66 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.81/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.96/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Victor TorpMIDCoventry City~59 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.43/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.48/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.99/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ben SheafMID~72 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.13/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.34/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.27/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nico O'ReillyDEFManchester City~74 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.62/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.36/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.47/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tatsuhiro SakamotoFWDCoventry City~67 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.39/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.83/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.68/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nico GonzálezMIDManchester City~65 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.78/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.86/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.52/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marc GuéhiDEFManchester City~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.68/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.94/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.71/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Josko GvardiolDEFManchester City~85 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.68/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.62/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.12/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jack GrealishFWDManchester City~36 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.50/90 over 7 apps → model prices 2.42/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.67/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.99/90 over 7 apps → model prices 2.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rico LewisDEFManchester City~59 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.63/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.61/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.55/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Liam KitchingDEFCoventry City~87 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.05/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.96/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.80/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Josh EcclesMIDCoventry City~53 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.11/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.58/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.98/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Milan van EwijkDEFCoventry City~88 min · starts 99%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 99% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 90 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 90 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.68/90 over 90 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 90 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 90 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rayan Aït-NouriDEFManchester City~57 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.25/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.00/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.03/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Bobby ThomasDEFCoventry City~89 min · starts 99%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 99% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.70/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.78/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.20/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 73 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joel LatibeaudiereDEFCoventry City~80 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.14/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.33/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matheus NunesDEFManchester City~76 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.30/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.94/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jay DasilvaDEFCoventry City~74 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.32/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.34/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.81/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jake BidwellDEFCoventry City~63 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.50/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.54/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.85/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matt GrimesMIDCoventry City~89 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.52/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.67/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.85/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Abdukodir KhusanovDEFManchester City~72 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.38/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.38/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.81/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rúben DiasDEFManchester City~83 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.35/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.56/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.60/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luke WoolfendenDEFCoventry City~63 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.53/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.16/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.33/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jamie AllenMID~35 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.85/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.49/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.92/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nathan AkéDEF~49 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.49/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.35/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.63/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kaine Kesler-HaydenDEFCoventry City~27 min · starts 23%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~27 minutes: starts 23% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.70/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.98/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.56/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 6 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.