Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Manchester United v Ipswich Town · Premier League · Sunday 30 August at 16:30 · 214 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Christian WaltonGKIpswich Town~90 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~66 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.72/90 over 44 apps → model prices 3.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.16/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alex PalmerGKIpswich Town~87 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.62/90 over 23 apps → model prices 3.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.23/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Senne LammensGKManchester United~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.47/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.48/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.19/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Bryan MbeumoFWDManchester United~80 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.05/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.04/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.43/90 over 33 apps → model prices 2.55/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.74/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matheus Santos Carneiro Da CunhaFWDManchester United~76 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.31/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.69/90 over 33 apps → model prices 2.64/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.46/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Amad Diallo TraoréFWDManchester United~73 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.14/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.00/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.58/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.21/90 over 58 apps → model prices 2.48/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marcus RashfordFWDManchester United~66 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.22/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.28/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.01/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.58/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.59/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Benjamin ŠeškoFWDManchester United~55 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.10/90 over 30 apps → model prices 2.90/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.02/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.22/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.52/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Bruno Miguel Borges FernandesMIDManchester United~86 min · starts 99%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 99% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.78/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.11/90 over 71 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 71 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.71/90 over 71 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 71 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joshua ZirkzeeFWDManchester United~36 min · starts 34%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 34% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.65/90 over 56 apps → model prices 3.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.43/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.92/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.80/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.53/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jaden Philogene-BidaceFWDIpswich Town~55 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.52/90 over 45 apps → model prices 2.04/90 for this match
Fouls: career 5.09/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.70/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.98/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.63/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Cards: career 1.88/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sindre Walle EgeliFWDIpswich Town~53 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.92/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.02/90 over 28 apps → model prices 2.09/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.61/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.57/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Patrick Chinazaekpere DorguDEFManchester United~60 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.64/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 4.29/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.64/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.69/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Azor MatusiwaMIDIpswich Town~86 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.06/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.05/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.24/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.16/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Carlos Henrique CasimiroMID~67 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.05/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.82/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.61/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.16/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jack ClarkeFWDIpswich Town~46 min · starts 45%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 45% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 78 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.82/90 over 78 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.52/90 over 78 apps → model prices 2.07/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.95/90 over 78 apps → model prices 1.85/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.62/90 over 78 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 78 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
George HirstFWDIpswich Town~41 min · starts 44%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 44% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.35/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.26/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.25/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.80/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.02/90 over 68 apps → model prices 2.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 68 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kobbie MainooMIDManchester United~62 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.93/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.71/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.26/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Harry MaguireDEFManchester United~68 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.46/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.09/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.65/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.13/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.94/90 over 50 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Manuel Ugarte RibeiroMIDManchester United~53 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.35/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.93/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.66/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.10/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.23/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marcelino Ignacio Nuñez EspinozaMIDIpswich Town~60 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.65/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.36/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.87/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.67/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.63/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Anis MehmetiMIDIpswich Town~57 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.64/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.18/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.89/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.70/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Conor ChaplinFWD~35 min · starts 31%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 31% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.93/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.30/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.65/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.38/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Darnell FurlongDEFIpswich Town~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.73/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.43/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.24/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.14/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Chuba AkpomFWDIpswich Town~31 min · starts 24%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~31 minutes: starts 24% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.86/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.68/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.00/90 over 29 apps → model prices 2.41/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.64/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luke ShawDEFManchester United~80 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.26/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.34/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.07/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.49/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kasey McAteerMIDIpswich Town~46 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.60/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.02/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.12/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.75/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cedric KipreDEFIpswich Town~81 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~4 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.19/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.35/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.63/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.74/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
José Diogo Dalot TeixeiraDEFManchester United~81 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.36/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.07/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.84/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.17/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel NeillMID~41 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.95/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.51/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.32/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mason MountMIDManchester United~41 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~64 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.33/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.53/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.14/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.04/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.49/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jacob GreavesDEFIpswich Town~87 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.92/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.83/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.22/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.49/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Wes BurnsMIDIpswich Town~48 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.31/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.05/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.40/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.88/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lisandro MartínezDEFManchester United~79 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.24/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jack TaylorMIDIpswich Town~42 min · starts 39%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 39% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.62/90 over 71 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.75/90 over 71 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.46/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.60/90 over 71 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.44/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 71 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Leif DavisDEFIpswich Town~85 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.12/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.76/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.60/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 70 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matthijs de LigtDEFManchester United~79 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.44/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.31/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.57/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.71/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 42 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Noussair MazraouiDEFManchester United~67 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.07/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.07/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.85/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.86/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dara O'SheaDEFIpswich Town~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.20/90 over 81 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.84/90 over 81 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.49/90 over 81 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.78/90 over 81 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 81 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 81 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ayden HeavenDEFManchester United~52 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.83/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.37/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.32/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Cards: career 1.43/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Benjamin JohnsonDEFIpswich Town~55 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.37/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.40/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.63/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.53/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.13/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Leny YoroDEFManchester United~55 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.10/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.40/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.19/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.70/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ali Al-HamadiFWDIpswich Town~12 min · starts 0%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~12 minutes: starts 0% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 4.78/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.68/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.55/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.10/90 over 12 apps → model prices 2.67/90 for this match
Fouls: career 6.81/90 over 12 apps → model prices 2.60/90 for this match
Cards: career 1.40/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ashley YoungDEF~30 min · starts 23%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~30 minutes: starts 23% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.73/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.85/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.39/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.