Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Borussia Mönchengladbach v Elversberg · Bundesliga · Saturday 5 September at 14:30 · 81 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Tim KleindienstFWD~81 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~4 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.46/90 over 31 apps → model prices 2.77/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.82/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.46/90 over 31 apps → model prices 4.09/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Haris TabakovicFWD~76 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.82/90 over 30 apps → model prices 2.18/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.42/90 over 30 apps → model prices 4.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.75/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Moritz NicolasGK~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 3.85/90 over 52 apps → model prices 3.47/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.06/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Robin HackFWD~61 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.47/90 over 31 apps → model prices 4.04/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.77/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.81/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joe ScallyDEF~81 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.73/90 over 59 apps → model prices 2.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.99/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.41/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rocco ReitzMID~77 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.42/90 over 52 apps → model prices 2.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.07/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.79/90 over 52 apps → model prices 2.40/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Franck HonoratFWD~73 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.07/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.27/90 over 45 apps → model prices 2.34/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.50/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.27/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jens CastropMID~61 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.76/90 over 19 apps → model prices 2.63/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.52/90 over 19 apps → model prices 2.01/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.34/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kevin StögerMID~48 min · starts 52%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 52% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.42/90 over 34 apps → model prices 2.74/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.42/90 over 34 apps → model prices 2.02/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.33/90 over 34 apps → model prices 3.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Hugo BolinFWD~42 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.41/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.63/90 over 7 apps → model prices 2.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.83/90 over 7 apps → model prices 3.61/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Shuto MachinoFWD~33 min · starts 28%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 28% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.06/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.09/90 over 12 apps → model prices 4.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.75/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Wael MohyaMID~37 min · starts 40%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 40% of his matches (~64 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.52/90 over 7 apps → model prices 3.28/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.43/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.60/90 over 7 apps → model prices 3.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Florian NeuhausMID~37 min · starts 37%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 37% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.04/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.95/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.73/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.79/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Philipp SanderMID~68 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.97/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.51/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lukas UllrichDEF~66 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.82/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.50/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.14/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 41 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kevin DiksDEF~82 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.81/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.78/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.52/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Giovanni ReynaMIDBorussia Mönchengladbach~27 min · starts 21%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~27 minutes: starts 21% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.47/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.09/90 over 6 apps → model prices 2.29/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.40/90 over 6 apps → model prices 3.58/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.55/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.91/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 6 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Grant-Leon RanosFWD~13 min · starts 0%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~13 minutes: starts 0% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.00/90 over 1 apps → model prices 1.93/90 for this match
Shots: career 8.18/90 over 1 apps → model prices 6.97/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.00/90 over 1 apps → model prices 2.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 1 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Fabio ChiarodiaDEF~34 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~34 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.55/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.32/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.93/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.00/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nico ElvediDEF~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.37/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.53/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.48/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marvin FriedrichDEF~40 min · starts 36%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~40 minutes: starts 36% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.67/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.38/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.38/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.