Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Crystal Palace v Manchester City · Premier League · Friday 28 August at 20:00 · 190 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Gianluigi DonnarummaGKManchester City~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.29/90 over 34 apps → model prices 2.95/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.12/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dean HendersonGKCrystal Palace~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.09/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.80/90 over 75 apps → model prices 2.62/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 75 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Erling HålandFWDManchester City~87 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.87/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.65/90 over 66 apps → model prices 2.09/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.58/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.74/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Antoine SemenyoFWDManchester City~83 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.80/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.89/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.94/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.14/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.80/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jean-Philippe MatetaFWDCrystal Palace~71 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.93/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.52/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.76/90 over 69 apps → model prices 2.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 69 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ismaïla SarrFWDCrystal Palace~74 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.83/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.11/90 over 66 apps → model prices 2.05/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.81/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.47/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jørgen Strand LarsenFWDCrystal Palace~65 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.74/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.67/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.80/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.68/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Omar MarmoushFWDManchester City~51 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.40/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 4.14/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.97/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 2.94/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Shots: career 6.86/90 over 37 apps → model prices 2.74/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yeremi Jesús Pino SantosFWDCrystal Palace~62 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.40/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.89/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.15/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.81/90 over 34 apps → model prices 2.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jeremy DokuFWDManchester City~56 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 3.60/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.93/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.36/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.56/90 over 59 apps → model prices 2.07/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.78/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.02/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sávio Moreira de OliveiraFWDManchester City~49 min · starts 53%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 53% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.34/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.07/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.48/90 over 53 apps → model prices 2.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.49/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Edward NketiahFWDCrystal Palace~35 min · starts 27%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 27% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 4.57/90 over 41 apps → model prices 2.75/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.59/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Fouls: career 5.93/90 over 41 apps → model prices 2.35/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.70/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Cards: career 2.95/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 41 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolás González IglesiasMIDManchester City~65 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.54/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.84/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.88/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.20/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.97/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jack GrealishFWDManchester City~36 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 6.09/90 over 20 apps → model prices 2.41/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.59/90 over 20 apps → model prices 2.21/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.44/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.66/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jefferson Andrés Lerma SolísMIDCrystal Palace~63 min · starts 69%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 69% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.97/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.07/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.31/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.21/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.70/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 64 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Philip FodenMIDManchester City~63 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.28/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.90/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.05/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matheus Luiz NunesDEFManchester City~76 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.10/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.70/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.31/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.63/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 60 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rodrigo Hernández CascanteMIDManchester City~66 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.33/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.87/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.93/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Will HughesMIDCrystal Palace~58 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.46/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.06/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.95/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.93/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.56/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 64 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mathis Ryan CherkiMIDManchester City~54 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.71/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.92/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.48/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.77/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adam WhartonMIDCrystal Palace~72 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.97/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.24/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.24/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tijjani ReijndersMIDManchester City~58 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.14/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.69/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.83/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mateo KovačićMIDManchester City~63 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.77/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.75/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.33/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.51/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel Muñoz MejíaDEFCrystal Palace~85 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.48/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.06/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.40/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.65/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daichi KamadaMIDCrystal Palace~56 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.98/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.19/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.36/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.13/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marc GuehiDEFManchester City~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.68/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.23/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.71/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.94/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nico O'ReillyDEFManchester City~74 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.29/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.62/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.45/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.43/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joško GvardiolDEFManchester City~85 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.64/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.64/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.21/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.37/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rúben Santos Gato Alves DiasDEFManchester City~83 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.32/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.53/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.21/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tyrick MitchellDEFCrystal Palace~85 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.14/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.74/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.42/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.66/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 75 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 75 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Abdukodir KhusanovDEFManchester City~72 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.04/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.74/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.70/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.34/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Chris RichardsDEFCrystal Palace~83 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.14/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.58/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.21/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.48/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Justin DevennyMIDCrystal Palace~30 min · starts 25%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~30 minutes: starts 25% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 1.57/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.30/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.99/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.91/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.75/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cheick Oumar DoucoureMIDCrystal Palace~35 min · starts 31%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 31% of his matches (~56 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.44/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.97/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.66/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Chadi RiadDEFCrystal Palace~64 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.74/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.94/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.42/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.99/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jaydee CanvotDEFCrystal Palace~67 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.35/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.71/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.05/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.35/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rayan Aït NouriDEFManchester City~57 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.12/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.32/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.01/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.94/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rico LewisDEFManchester City~59 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.85/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.34/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.90/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.05/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Romain EsseFWDCrystal Palace~18 min · starts 9%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~18 minutes: starts 9% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.56/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.94/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.73/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.66/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.59/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.06/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.