Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Fiorentina v Torino · Serie A · Saturday 5 September at 14:00 · 171 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Moise KeanFWD~82 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.75/90 over 56 apps → model prices 4.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.33/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.83/90 over 56 apps → model prices 1.95/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alberto PaleariGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.87/90 over 30 apps → model prices 3.05/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.27/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
David de GeaGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.11/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.96/90 over 72 apps → model prices 2.52/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 72 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Giovanni SimeoneFWDTorino~70 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.01/90 over 31 apps → model prices 2.71/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.78/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.27/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Roberto PiccoliFWD~52 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.66/90 over 20 apps → model prices 3.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.81/90 over 20 apps → model prices 2.49/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.73/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.74/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Riccardo SottilFWDFiorentina~46 min · starts 44%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 44% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.79/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.83/90 over 11 apps → model prices 3.48/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.57/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.60/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rolando MandragoraMID~69 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.16/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.92/90 over 55 apps → model prices 2.03/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.14/90 over 55 apps → model prices 2.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Fabiano ParisiDEF~53 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.88/90 over 31 apps → model prices 2.91/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.13/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.93/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
DodôDEF~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.75/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.64/90 over 71 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.66/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 71 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Saúl CocoDEF~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.53/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.82/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.50/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Albert GudmundssonFWD~62 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.73/90 over 45 apps → model prices 2.28/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.22/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.16/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ché AdamsFWD~66 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.94/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.13/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.18/90 over 58 apps → model prices 2.07/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marin PongracicDEF~77 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.61/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.22/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.02/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cesare CasadeiMID~63 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.74/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.37/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.82/90 over 38 apps → model prices 2.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jack HarrisonFWD~65 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~33 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.56/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.16/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.95/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.04/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gvidas GineitisMID~54 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.88/90 over 42 apps → model prices 2.29/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.47/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.44/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 42 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Duván ZapataFWD~49 min · starts 51%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 51% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.53/90 over 22 apps → model prices 2.47/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.09/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.45/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolò FagioliMID~74 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.36/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.15/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 42 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nikola VlašićMID~77 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.22/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.25/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.41/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Valentino LazaroMID~72 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.33/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.48/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.44/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Guillermo MaripánDEF~82 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~33 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.11/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.63/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.30/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pablo MaríDEF~79 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.23/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.46/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.44/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Amir RichardsonMID~37 min · starts 34%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 34% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.66/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.49/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.39/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.16/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.46/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ardian IsmajliDEF~76 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.23/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.97/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adam MasinaDEF~65 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.27/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.75/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marcus PedersenDEF~60 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.59/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.30/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.16/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Christian KouaméFWD~32 min · starts 25%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~32 minutes: starts 25% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.02/90 over 7 apps → model prices 2.70/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.21/90 over 7 apps → model prices 2.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.35/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.73/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ivan IlićMID~49 min · starts 52%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 52% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.26/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.73/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.66/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.87/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Niccolò FortiniDEF~33 min · starts 13%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 13% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.17/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.40/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.26/90 over 7 apps → model prices 2.51/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Emirhan İlkhanMID~54 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.52/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.85/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.76/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Giovanni FabbianMIDFiorentina~31 min · starts 27%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~31 minutes: starts 27% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.92/90 over 5 apps → model prices 2.04/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.48/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.68/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.57/90 over 5 apps → model prices 2.55/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cher NdourMID~54 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.20/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.11/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.29/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marco BrescianiniMIDFiorentina~51 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.00/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.84/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.63/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luca RanieriDEF~79 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.82/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.74/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.46/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 65 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adrien TamèzeMID~41 min · starts 48%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 48% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.17/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.68/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.52/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.58/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cristiano BiraghiDEF~58 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.83/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.74/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.11/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tino AnjorinMIDTorino~19 min · starts 7%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~19 minutes: starts 7% of his matches (~59 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 2 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.74/90 over 2 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.99/90 over 2 apps → model prices 3.67/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.32/90 over 2 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 2 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ali DembéléDEFTorino~25 min · starts 24%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~25 minutes: starts 24% of his matches (~60 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.22/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.73/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.27/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.54/90 over 5 apps → model prices 2.68/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.63/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alieu NjieFWD~22 min · starts 6%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~22 minutes: starts 6% of his matches (~53 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.85/90 over 6 apps → model prices 2.48/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.23/90 over 6 apps → model prices 2.05/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.77/90 over 6 apps → model prices 2.91/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 6 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rafa ObradorDEF~70 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.58/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.58/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.42/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Zakaria AboukhlalFWD~34 min · starts 40%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~34 minutes: starts 40% of his matches (~60 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.15/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.15/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.81/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.15/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mattia VitiDEF~26 min · starts 20%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~26 minutes: starts 20% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 3 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.36/90 over 3 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.99/90 over 3 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.22/90 over 3 apps → model prices 2.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 3 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sandro KulenovićFWDTorino~23 min · starts 23%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~23 minutes: starts 23% of his matches (~60 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.26/90 over 4 apps → model prices 2.29/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.84/90 over 4 apps → model prices 2.33/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.68/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.91/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 4 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Niels NkounkouDEF~32 min · starts 27%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~32 minutes: starts 27% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.37/90 over 3 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.74/90 over 3 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.37/90 over 3 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 3 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.