Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Borussia Dortmund v Hamburger SV · Bundesliga · Saturday 29 August at 17:30 · 171 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Daniel Heuer FernandesGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.15/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Saves: career 3.24/90 over 33 apps → model prices 3.45/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Serhou GuirassyFWD~79 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.63/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.00/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.02/90 over 58 apps → model prices 3.64/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gregor KobelGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.62/90 over 66 apps → model prices 2.56/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.11/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Maximilian BeierFWD~60 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.29/90 over 48 apps → model prices 3.04/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.99/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.07/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Julian BrandtMID~67 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.80/90 over 46 apps → model prices 2.28/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.31/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.38/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ransford KönigsdörfferFWD~72 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.93/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.40/90 over 31 apps → model prices 2.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.24/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Miro MuheimDEF~84 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.87/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.42/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.86/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolás CapaldoDEF~77 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.41/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.11/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.01/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.37/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolai RembergMID~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.70/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.46/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.58/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mamadou Jean-Luc Diarra DompéFWD~57 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.05/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.80/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.18/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Felix Kalu NmechaMID~67 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.23/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.12/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.23/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ramy BensebainiDEF~69 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.03/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.49/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.92/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rayan PhilippeFWD
Fábio Daniel Soares SilvaFWD~29 min · starts 25%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~29 minutes: starts 25% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.71/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.83/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.17/90 over 8 apps → model prices 3.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 8 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nico SchlotterbeckDEF
Marcel SabitzerMID~66 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.04/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.63/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.79/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 42 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Bakery JattaFWD~61 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.19/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.43/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.19/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Julian RyersonDEF~76 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.59/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.10/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.89/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Albert-Mboyo Sambi LokongaMID~66 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.21/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.36/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.93/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel ElfadliDEF~60 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.50/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.97/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.22/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.37/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jobe BellinghamMID~56 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.34/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.18/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Emre CanDEF~68 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.94/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.42/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Waldemar AntonDEF~83 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.89/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.64/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.74/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.68/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Robert Nesta GlatzelFWD~33 min · starts 37%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 37% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.20/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.87/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.84/90 over 8 apps → model prices 2.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 8 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Otto Emerson StangeFWD~29 min · starts 20%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~29 minutes: starts 20% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 3 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.57/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.09/90 over 3 apps → model prices 2.54/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.09/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.96/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 3 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Warmed OmariDEF
Jordan TorunarighaDEF~82 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~34 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.23/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.60/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Carney ChukwuemekaMID~31 min · starts 24%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~31 minutes: starts 24% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.02/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.36/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.81/90 over 12 apps → model prices 2.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel SvenssonDEF
Alexander Røssing-LelesiitFWD~30 min · starts 45%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~30 minutes: starts 45% of his matches (~54 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.35/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.80/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.97/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.40/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.35/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 4 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
William MikelbrencisDEF
Niklas SüleDEF
Yussuf Yurary PoulsenFWD~21 min · starts 7%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~21 minutes: starts 7% of his matches (~62 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.11/90 over 3 apps → model prices 2.69/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.05/90 over 3 apps → model prices 2.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.05/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Cards: career 1.05/90 over 3 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 3 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Giorgi GocholeishviliDEF~39 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.57/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.21/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.21/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Fabio Amadu Uri BaldéFWD~28 min · starts 19%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~28 minutes: starts 19% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.33/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.31/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.88/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.66/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 4 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Salih ÖzcanMID~21 min · starts 14%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~21 minutes: starts 14% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.79/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.62/90 over 4 apps → model prices 2.08/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.49/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 4 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.