Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Fiorentina v Frosinone · Serie A · Saturday 29 August at 17:30 · 97 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Moise Bioty KeanFWD~82 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.42/90 over 58 apps → model prices 4.09/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.81/90 over 58 apps → model prices 2.44/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.80/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.26/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
David de Gea QuintanaGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.96/90 over 72 apps → model prices 2.79/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.11/90 over 72 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 72 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jack HarrisonFWD~65 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~33 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.88/90 over 15 apps → model prices 3.62/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.90/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.42/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.72/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.88/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.56/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Albert GudmundssonFWD~62 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.51/90 over 57 apps → model prices 2.42/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.73/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.69/90 over 57 apps → model prices 3.78/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.56/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.87/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Roberto PiccoliFWD~52 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.95/90 over 32 apps → model prices 4.01/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.19/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.03/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.81/90 over 32 apps → model prices 2.74/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Riccardo SottilFWDFiorentina~46 min · starts 44%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 44% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.62/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.85/90 over 18 apps → model prices 2.02/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.95/90 over 18 apps → model prices 3.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.42/90 over 18 apps → model prices 4.07/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rolando MandragoraMID~69 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.21/90 over 63 apps → model prices 2.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.38/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.68/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.15/90 over 63 apps → model prices 2.13/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolò FagioliMID~74 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.29/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.57/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.90/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.32/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.87/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.22/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Fabiano ParisiDEF~53 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.56/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 4.85/90 over 49 apps → model prices 2.62/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.20/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.35/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Christian KouaméFWD~32 min · starts 25%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~32 minutes: starts 25% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.01/90 over 20 apps → model prices 2.46/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.25/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.17/90 over 20 apps → model prices 2.87/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.17/90 over 20 apps → model prices 4.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marin PongracicDEF~77 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.25/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.63/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.57/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.04/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.20/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Domilson Cordeiro dos SantosDEF~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.66/90 over 71 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.63/90 over 71 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.14/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.74/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 71 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pablo Marí VillarDEF~79 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.21/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.53/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.43/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.02/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marco BrescianiniMIDFiorentina~51 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.13/90 over 17 apps → model prices 2.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.93/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.97/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.57/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.98/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cher NdourMID~54 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.24/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.83/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.92/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.97/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.31/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.76/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.19/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 42 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luca RanieriDEF~79 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.95/90 over 70 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.81/90 over 70 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 70 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Amir RichardsonMID~37 min · starts 34%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~37 minutes: starts 34% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.37/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.33/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.72/90 for this match
Fouls: career 4.21/90 over 29 apps → model prices 2.58/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.13/90 over 29 apps → model prices 2.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.97/90 over 29 apps → model prices 2.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Giovanni FabbianMIDFiorentina~31 min · starts 27%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~31 minutes: starts 27% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 1.00/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.34/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.31/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.38/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.30/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.76/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.52/90 over 15 apps → model prices 3.03/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Niccolò FortiniDEF~33 min · starts 13%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 13% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.20/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.46/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.59/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.22/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mattia VitiDEF~26 min · starts 20%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~26 minutes: starts 20% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.05/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.28/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.28/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.99/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.19/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.25/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.