Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Sheffield United v Bolton Wanderers · Championship · Tuesday 1 September at 19:45 · 121 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Patrick BamfordFWD~65 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 5.90/90 over 28 apps → model prices 3.81/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.79/90 over 28 apps → model prices 2.00/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.72/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.84/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 3.19/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.91/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Michael CooperGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.17/90 over 80 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 80 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.67/90 over 80 apps → model prices 2.60/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 80 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adam DaviesGK~87 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.19/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.44/90 over 16 apps → model prices 2.59/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tyrese CampbellFWD~52 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.40/90 over 70 apps → model prices 1.87/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.07/90 over 70 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.94/90 over 70 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.65/90 over 70 apps → model prices 3.66/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 70 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sydie PeckMID~76 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 85 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.86/90 over 85 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.43/90 over 85 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.47/90 over 85 apps → model prices 2.33/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.14/90 over 85 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 85 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gustavo HamerMID~72 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.36/90 over 81 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.85/90 over 81 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.55/90 over 81 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.14/90 over 81 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.71/90 over 81 apps → model prices 2.43/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 81 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Thomas Christopher CannonFWD~47 min · starts 51%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 51% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.85/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.73/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.01/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.59/90 over 53 apps → model prices 3.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.24/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.88/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Callum O'HareMID~73 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 92 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.48/90 over 92 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 92 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.87/90 over 92 apps → model prices 2.13/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.47/90 over 92 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 92 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Femi SerikiDEF~57 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.44/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 4.16/90 over 64 apps → model prices 2.55/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.31/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 64 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tom DaviesMID~41 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.14/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 6.01/90 over 26 apps → model prices 2.88/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.53/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.23/90 over 26 apps → model prices 2.13/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.51/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel William John IngsFWD~26 min · starts 22%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~26 minutes: starts 22% of his matches (~62 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 4.43/90 over 23 apps → model prices 4.31/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.69/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.35/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 2.29/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.19/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jaïro RiedewaldMIDSheffield United~59 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.58/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.54/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.88/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.38/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.15/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ollie ArblasterMID~57 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.62/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.81/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.91/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.03/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Harrison BurrowsDEF~74 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~74 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 90 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.37/90 over 90 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.40/90 over 90 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.39/90 over 90 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.43/90 over 90 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 90 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ryan OneFWD~23 min · starts 11%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~23 minutes: starts 11% of his matches (~55 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 3.45/90 over 18 apps → model prices 2.83/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.89/90 over 18 apps → model prices 4.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.23/90 over 18 apps → model prices 2.23/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.45/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.62/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Japhet TangangaDEF~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.07/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.00/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.84/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joe RothwellMID~43 min · starts 40%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 40% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.42/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.05/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.30/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.32/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.05/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jack RobinsonDEF~83 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.59/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.87/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.11/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.56/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ki-Jana HoeverDEF~36 min · starts 33%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 33% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.22/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.81/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.70/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Shots: career 8.11/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.35/90 for this match
Cards: career 5.87/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ben MeeDEF~84 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~45 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.46/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.41/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.46/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mark McGuinnessDEF~72 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.49/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.11/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.30/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sam McCallumDEF~42 min · starts 44%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 44% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.69/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.41/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.17/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.67/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.42/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tahith ChongMID~32 min · starts 33%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~32 minutes: starts 33% of his matches (~62 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.82/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.96/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.02/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.80/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.33/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.95/90 over 21 apps → model prices 2.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rhys Norrington-DaviesDEFSheffield United~22 min · starts 20%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~22 minutes: starts 20% of his matches (~60 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.29/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.04/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.04/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.76/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jamie ShackletonDEF~21 min · starts 13%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~21 minutes: starts 13% of his matches (~60 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.96/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.28/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.68/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.64/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.