Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Sunderland v Fulham · Premier League · Sunday 30 August at 14:00 · 202 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Bernd LenoGKFulham~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.74/90 over 76 apps → model prices 3.01/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.13/90 over 76 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 76 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Robin RoefsGKSunderland~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 3.11/90 over 35 apps → model prices 2.65/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.40/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Anthony PattersonGKSunderland~91 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~91 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~91 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.15/90 over 45 apps → model prices 2.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.16/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Wilson IsidorFWDSunderland~57 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.69/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.69/90 over 51 apps → model prices 2.87/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.85/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Patrick RobertsFWD~72 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.92/90 over 41 apps → model prices 2.03/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.15/90 over 41 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.74/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 41 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Eliezer Mayenda DossouFWD~61 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.10/90 over 31 apps → model prices 2.35/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.72/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.12/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alex IwobiFWDFulham
Brian BrobbeyFWDSunderland
Kenny TeteDEFFulham~81 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~8 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.16/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.57/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.99/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 42 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mouhamadou DiarraMIDSunderland~70 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.34/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.77/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.29/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.43/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Romaine MundleFWDSunderland~51 min · starts 53%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 53% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.97/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.73/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.23/90 over 25 apps → model prices 2.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.08/90 over 25 apps → model prices 2.27/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Reinildo Isnard MandavaDEFSunderland
Dennis CirkinDEF~76 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.49/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.61/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.10/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Noah SadikiMIDSunderland
Granit XhakaMIDSunderland~85 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.67/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.18/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rodrigo Muniz CarvalhoFWDFulham~38 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~38 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.97/90 over 20 apps → model prices 2.83/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.32/90 over 20 apps → model prices 2.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.55/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.92/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Chemsdine TalbiFWDSunderland
Chris RiggMIDSunderland~63 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.41/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.45/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kouassi Ryan SessegnonDEFFulham
Enzo Le FéeMIDSunderland~79 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.16/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.27/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel NeillMID~87 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~1 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.18/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sander BergeMIDFulham~78 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.16/90 over 61 apps → model prices 1.24/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.30/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.44/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adama Traoré DiarraFWD~39 min · starts 30%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 30% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.00/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.50/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.51/90 over 5 apps → model prices 2.32/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Calvin BasseyDEFFulham~86 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.44/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.16/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luke O'NienDEFSunderland~79 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.43/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.76/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.22/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alan BrowneMIDSunderland~53 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.23/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.58/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.68/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Emile Smith RoweMIDFulham
Nordi Mukiele MulereDEFSunderland~87 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.01/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.79/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.01/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Simon AdingraFWDSunderland~47 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.67/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.03/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.42/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kevin Santos Lopes de MacedoFWDFulham~40 min · starts 35%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~40 minutes: starts 35% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.07/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.06/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.15/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.27/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel BallardDEFSunderland~69 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.11/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.26/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Omar Federico Alderete FernándezDEFSunderland~85 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~37 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.95/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.36/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Antonee RobinsonDEFFulham~80 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.43/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.91/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.57/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Trai HumeDEFSunderland~84 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 79 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.92/90 over 79 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 79 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.84/90 over 79 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 79 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joachim AndersenDEFFulham~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.83/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.54/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.58/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joshua KingMIDFulham~36 min · starts 40%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 40% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.80/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.75/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.88/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.83/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Timothy CastagneDEFFulham
Oscar BobbFWDFulham~41 min · starts 43%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 43% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.63/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.36/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.73/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ajibola AleseDEFSunderland~59 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.13/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.28/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.28/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 8 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jorge Cuenca BarrenoDEFFulham~56 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~2 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.35/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.78/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.21/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.14/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tom CairneyMIDFulham
Leo Fuhr HjeldeDEFSunderland~26 min · starts 29%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~26 minutes: starts 29% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~6 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.00/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.00/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.02/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.51/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Harrison ReedMIDFulham~10 min · starts 5%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~10 minutes: starts 5% of his matches (~63 when he starts, ~7 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 1 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.86/90 over 1 apps → model prices 3.03/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.00/90 over 1 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.00/90 over 1 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 1 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.