Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
TSG Hoffenheim v Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga · Saturday 5 September at 14:30 · 142 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Gregor KobelGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.62/90 over 66 apps → model prices 3.09/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.11/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Oliver BaumannGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.19/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.98/90 over 62 apps → model prices 2.68/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Serhou GuirassyFWD~79 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.02/90 over 58 apps → model prices 2.77/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.00/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.63/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Fisnik AsllaniFWD~72 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.80/90 over 31 apps → model prices 2.88/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.36/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andrej KramaricFWD~76 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.07/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.31/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.79/90 over 61 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.40/90 over 61 apps → model prices 2.50/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 61 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tim LemperleFWD~68 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.39/90 over 25 apps → model prices 2.60/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.72/90 over 25 apps → model prices 2.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adam HlozekFWD~60 min · starts 69%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 69% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.74/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.77/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.94/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.38/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Wouter BurgerMID~81 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.10/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.01/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.51/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Maximilian BeierFWD~60 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.29/90 over 48 apps → model prices 2.31/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.99/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.07/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Julian BrandtMID~67 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.38/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.31/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.80/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.74/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Albian HajdariDEF~81 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.60/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.37/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.71/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.89/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Arthur ChavesDEF~81 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~36 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.81/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.42/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.43/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
BernardoDEF~80 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.48/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.39/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.44/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Vladimír CoufalDEF~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.16/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.75/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.23/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ozan KabakDEF~70 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.86/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.33/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.42/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.49/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Grischa PrömelMID~55 min · starts 51%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 51% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.78/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.89/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.33/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ramy BensebainiDEF~69 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.49/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.92/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.03/90 over 45 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Felix NmechaMID~67 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.23/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.23/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.12/90 over 44 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 44 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 44 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Julian RyersonDEF~76 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.89/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.10/90 over 54 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.59/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nico SchlotterbeckDEF~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.94/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.92/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.96/90 over 50 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 50 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Valentin GendreyDEF~49 min · starts 47%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 47% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.72/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.67/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.78/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Robin HranacDEF~75 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.37/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.11/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.30/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Max MoerstedtFWD~25 min · starts 18%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~25 minutes: starts 18% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.35/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.59/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.88/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.13/90 over 9 apps → model prices 2.01/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.13/90 over 9 apps → model prices 3.05/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Fábio SilvaFWD~29 min · starts 25%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~29 minutes: starts 25% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.17/90 over 8 apps → model prices 2.55/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.71/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.83/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 8 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Emre CanDEF~68 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.08/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.42/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.94/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Leon AvdullahuMID~86 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.87/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.45/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.38/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.48/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Waldemar AntonDEF~83 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.68/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.89/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.64/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 54 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 54 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alexander PrassMID~52 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.86/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.35/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.28/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Marcel SabitzerMID~66 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.63/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.04/90 over 42 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.79/90 over 42 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 42 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel SvenssonDEF~72 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.53/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.83/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.77/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jobe BellinghamMID~56 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.34/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.18/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Niklas SüleDEF~60 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.83/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.12/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.59/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Muhammed DamarMID~18 min · starts 13%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~18 minutes: starts 13% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.18/90 over 4 apps → model prices 2.95/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.45/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.91/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 4 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Carney ChukwuemekaMID~31 min · starts 24%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~31 minutes: starts 24% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.81/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.02/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.36/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ihlas BebouFWD~12 min · starts 0%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~12 minutes: starts 0% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 0 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Umut TohumcuMID~30 min · starts 24%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~30 minutes: starts 24% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.40/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.93/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.16/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.70/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Salih ÖzcanMID~21 min · starts 14%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~21 minutes: starts 14% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.62/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.99/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.49/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.79/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 4 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.