Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Queens Park Rangers v Cardiff City · Championship · Wednesday 2 September at 19:45 · 190 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Jak AlnwickGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.28/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.83/90 over 29 apps → model prices 2.98/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ethan HorvathGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 3.00/90 over 17 apps → model prices 2.84/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.23/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joe WalshGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 3.00/90 over 24 apps → model prices 2.53/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.21/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Richard KoneFWD~77 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.75/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.53/90 over 39 apps → model prices 2.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.05/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.83/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ilias ChairMID~62 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.41/90 over 35 apps → model prices 2.62/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.43/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.47/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Paul SmythFWD~59 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~30 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.55/90 over 63 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.49/90 over 63 apps → model prices 2.66/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 63 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.71/90 over 63 apps → model prices 2.01/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 63 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yousef SalechFWD~64 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~64 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.59/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.74/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.02/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.39/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Harvey ValeMID~70 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.56/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.77/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.02/90 over 26 apps → model prices 2.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Zan CelarFWD~49 min · starts 52%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~49 minutes: starts 52% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.45/90 over 12 apps → model prices 2.77/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 12 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.61/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 12 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 12 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Callum RobinsonFWD~60 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.24/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.06/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.45/90 over 26 apps → model prices 2.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alex RobertsonMID~69 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.66/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.59/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.93/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.84/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Karamoko DembéléMID~53 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.03/90 over 40 apps → model prices 2.18/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.82/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.06/90 over 40 apps → model prices 2.38/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rumarn BurrellFWD~67 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.22/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.78/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.42/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.89/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andy RinomhotaMID~70 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~70 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.50/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.99/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.31/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.51/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Perry NgDEF~80 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~80 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.81/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.14/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.73/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Michael FreyFWD~50 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.04/90 over 28 apps → model prices 2.48/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.47/90 over 28 apps → model prices 2.39/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.14/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rayan KolliFWD~43 min · starts 44%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 44% of his matches (~64 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.90/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.99/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.25/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.28/90 over 28 apps → model prices 2.75/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Koki SaitoFWD~59 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.30/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.88/90 over 53 apps → model prices 2.04/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.09/90 over 53 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.02/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Anwar El GhaziFWD~47 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.99/90 over 17 apps → model prices 2.41/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.05/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.88/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joe RallsMID~56 min · starts 71%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 71% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.13/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.40/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.09/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.99/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sivert MannsverkMID~72 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.55/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.82/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.64/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.36/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Calum ChambersDEF~86 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.34/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.36/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.72/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Manolis SiopisMID~69 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.67/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.60/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.73/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Rubin ColwillMID~59 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.91/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.29/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.97/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jonathan VaraneMID~66 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.33/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.50/90 over 62 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.64/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Amadou MbengueDEF~77 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.47/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.65/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.03/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Chris WillockFWD~48 min · starts 53%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 53% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.05/90 over 19 apps → model prices 2.01/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.63/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.70/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ollie TannerFWD~48 min · starts 52%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 52% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.31/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.24/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.98/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.39/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolas MadsenMID~68 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.60/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.54/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.20/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jimmy DunneDEF~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.66/90 over 84 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.99/90 over 84 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.16/90 over 84 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.99/90 over 84 apps → model prices 0.93/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 84 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Yakou MéïtéFWD~36 min · starts 32%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~36 minutes: starts 32% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 13 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.86/90 over 13 apps → model prices 2.54/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.43/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.53/90 over 13 apps → model prices 1.86/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 13 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Callum O'DowdaMID~85 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.95/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.08/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.69/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.69/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel BennieFWD~30 min · starts 21%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~30 minutes: starts 21% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.26/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.82/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.41/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.14/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cian AshfordFWD~55 min · starts 61%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~55 minutes: starts 61% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.37/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.24/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.98/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kieran MorganMID~51 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.88/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.40/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.50/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.36/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
David TurnbullMID~43 min · starts 53%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 53% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.19/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.13/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.64/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Will AlvesMID~48 min · starts 57%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 57% of his matches (~63 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.48/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.00/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.74/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kwame PokuFWD~30 min · starts 31%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~30 minutes: starts 31% of his matches (~55 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.61/90 over 5 apps → model prices 2.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.64/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.29/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.54/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ronnie EdwardsDEF~88 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.36/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.75/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.48/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Wilfried KangaFWD~33 min · starts 33%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 33% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.61/90 over 5 apps → model prices 2.04/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.27/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.34/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Will FishDEF~66 min · starts 67%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 67% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.55/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.69/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Liam MorrisonDEF~76 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.86/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.51/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.31/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joel BaganDEF~52 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.05/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.12/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.74/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Isaac HaydenMID~51 min · starts 52%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 52% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.39/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.65/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.74/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Steve CookDEF~78 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.40/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.08/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.71/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.73/90 over 56 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 56 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jesper DalandDEF~72 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~32 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.71/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.19/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.13/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Dimitrios GoutasDEF~86 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~47 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.71/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.59/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.18/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
EsquerdinhaDEF~39 min · starts 44%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 44% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.57/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.76/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.84/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.95/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jake Clarke-SalterDEF~60 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~60 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~12 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.38/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.50/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.25/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.43/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Paul Nardi~90 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~71 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.00/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.03/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.31/90 over 62 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 62 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.