Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Hull City v Aston Villa · Premier League · Saturday 5 September at 17:30 · 174 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Emiliano MartínezGKAston Villa~87 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~87 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.34/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.91/90 over 69 apps → model prices 3.21/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 69 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ivor PandurGK~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.12/90 over 92 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.92/90 over 92 apps → model prices 2.65/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 92 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Oliver McBurnieFWDHull City~79 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.92/90 over 36 apps → model prices 2.43/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.47/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.05/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ollie WatkinsFWDAston Villa~73 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.08/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.76/90 over 69 apps → model prices 2.63/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.04/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 69 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mohamed BelloumiFWDHull City~56 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.05/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.80/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.92/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.95/90 over 26 apps → model prices 3.22/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
John McGinnMIDAston Villa~69 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.55/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.52/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.33/90 over 55 apps → model prices 2.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.21/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matt CrooksMIDHull City~69 min · starts 77%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 77% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.42/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.23/90 over 43 apps → model prices 2.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.05/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.47/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Liam MillarFWDHull City~57 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.33/90 over 36 apps → model prices 2.64/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.28/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.32/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.73/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Boubacar KamaraMIDAston Villa~72 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.32/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.80/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.68/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.48/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lewie CoyleDEFHull City~84 min · starts 95%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 95% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 83 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.39/90 over 83 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.53/90 over 83 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.97/90 over 83 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 83 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ezri KonsaDEFAston Villa~88 min · starts 99%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 99% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.30/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.33/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.33/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Leon BaileyFWDAston Villa~43 min · starts 46%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 46% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.25/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.13/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.03/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kasey PalmerMID~38 min · starts 40%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~38 minutes: starts 40% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.73/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.89/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.56/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.17/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.56/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mason BurstowFWDHull City~31 min · starts 26%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~31 minutes: starts 26% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.79/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.15/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.34/90 over 11 apps → model prices 3.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.55/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.91/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matty CashDEFAston Villa~82 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~39 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.89/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.87/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.75/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.21/90 over 60 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 60 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 60 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Joel NdalaFWD~46 min · starts 59%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 59% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.06/90 over 11 apps → model prices 2.03/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.15/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.82/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Charlie HughesDEFHull City~85 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.10/90 over 67 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.73/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.54/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 67 apps → model prices 0.26/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 67 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Amadou OnanaMIDAston Villa~67 min · starts 80%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 80% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.41/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.35/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.97/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Emiliano BuendíaFWDAston Villa~39 min · starts 44%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 44% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.19/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.93/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.10/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.14/90 over 23 apps → model prices 2.31/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Evann GuessandFWDAston Villa~45 min · starts 46%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~45 minutes: starts 46% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.45/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.12/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.89/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.79/90 over 8 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 8 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 8 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Matty JacobDEFHull City~48 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~27 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.99/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.97/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.82/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Donyell MalenFWD~27 min · starts 20%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~27 minutes: starts 20% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.52/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.87/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.66/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.95/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
John LundstramMID~48 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.28/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.13/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.81/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.40/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Regan SlaterMIDHull City~72 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.77/90 over 76 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.73/90 over 76 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.96/90 over 76 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 76 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 76 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lewis KoumasFWD~35 min · starts 22%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 22% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.56/90 over 6 apps → model prices 2.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.64/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.44/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.77/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 6 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Abdülkadir ÖmürMIDHull City~54 min · starts 60%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 60% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.74/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.38/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.37/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.92/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Darko GyabiMIDHull City~35 min · starts 30%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 30% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.00/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.14/90 over 7 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.56/90 over 7 apps → model prices 2.10/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lamare BogardeMIDAston Villa~42 min · starts 44%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 44% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.22/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.06/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.74/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Enis DestanFWDHull City~24 min · starts 22%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~24 minutes: starts 22% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~11 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.23/90 over 4 apps → model prices 2.37/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.64/90 over 4 apps → model prices 2.72/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.64/90 over 4 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 4 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 4 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Amir HadziahmetovicMID~58 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.11/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.84/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.44/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Babajide David AkintolaFWDHull City~25 min · starts 25%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~25 minutes: starts 25% of his matches (~58 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.94/90 over 5 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.19/90 over 5 apps → model prices 2.04/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.25/90 over 5 apps → model prices 2.50/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.63/90 over 5 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 5 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Semi AjayiDEFHull City~76 min · starts 83%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~76 minutes: starts 83% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.50/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.71/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.50/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.63/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tammy AbrahamFWDAston Villa~23 min · starts 17%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~23 minutes: starts 17% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.42/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.55/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.79/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.82/90 over 3 apps → model prices 2.67/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 3 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jadon SanchoFWD~38 min · starts 39%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~38 minutes: starts 39% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.31/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.35/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.06/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.61/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Cody DramehDEFHull City~61 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.01/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.49/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.67/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.74/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ross BarkleyMIDAston Villa~35 min · starts 24%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~35 minutes: starts 24% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.11/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.79/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.68/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.68/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Patrick James Coleman McNairDEFHull City~51 min · starts 43%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~51 minutes: starts 43% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.35/90 over 9 apps → model prices 0.56/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.04/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.27/90 over 9 apps → model prices 1.06/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 9 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
John EganDEFHull City~79 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.54/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.55/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.73/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lucas DigneDEFAston Villa~67 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.54/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.60/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.72/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tyrone MingsDEFAston Villa~79 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~84 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.67/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.59/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.52/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.58/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.71/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.66/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ian MaatsenDEFAston Villa~46 min · starts 46%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 46% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.15/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.74/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.18/90 over 33 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.78/90 over 33 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 33 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Kieran DowellMIDHull City~19 min · starts 7%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~19 minutes: starts 7% of his matches (~61 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.00/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.00/90 over 3 apps → model prices 2.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.72/90 over 3 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 3 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 3 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ryan GilesDEFHull City~72 min · starts 86%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 86% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.14/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.43/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.40/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.52/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.12/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pau TorresDEFAston Villa~82 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.37/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.30/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.37/90 over 41 apps → model prices 0.44/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 41 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Victor LindelöfDEFAston Villa~56 min · starts 65%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 65% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~5 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.17/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.58/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.12/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.