Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Rayo Vallecano v Racing Santander · La Liga · Saturday 5 September at 17:30 · 89 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Dani CárdenasGKRayo Vallecano~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.10/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Saves: career 3.40/90 over 10 apps → model prices 3.06/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Álvaro GarcíaFWDRayo Vallecano~69 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.63/90 over 57 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.59/90 over 57 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.29/90 over 57 apps → model prices 3.88/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 57 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Augusto BatallaGKRayo Vallecano~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 2.83/90 over 66 apps → model prices 2.94/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.17/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Isi PalazónFWDRayo Vallecano~67 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.57/90 over 53 apps → model prices 2.06/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.26/90 over 53 apps → model prices 3.77/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.09/90 over 53 apps → model prices 3.08/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.28/90 over 53 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 53 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jorge de FrutosFWDRayo Vallecano~69 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~69 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~35 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 68 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.30/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.99/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.09/90 over 68 apps → model prices 3.50/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.36/90 over 68 apps → model prices 1.80/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 68 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sergio CamelloFWDRayo Vallecano~44 min · starts 49%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~44 minutes: starts 49% of his matches (~67 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.83/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.59/90 over 26 apps → model prices 4.78/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.05/90 over 26 apps → model prices 1.82/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 26 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 26 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Florian LejeuneDEFRayo Vallecano~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.33/90 over 73 apps → model prices 1.64/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.48/90 over 73 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.48/90 over 73 apps → model prices 2.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 73 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pedro DíazMIDRayo Vallecano~52 min · starts 55%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 55% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.57/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.07/90 over 38 apps → model prices 3.26/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.77/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
AlemãoFWDRayo Vallecano~44 min · starts 42%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~44 minutes: starts 42% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.17/90 over 15 apps → model prices 3.10/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.70/90 over 15 apps → model prices 3.83/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.88/90 over 15 apps → model prices 2.62/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Óscar ValentínMIDRayo Vallecano~59 min · starts 66%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~59 minutes: starts 66% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.33/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.13/90 over 49 apps → model prices 1.73/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.03/90 over 49 apps → model prices 2.70/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 49 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 49 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gerard GumbauMID~40 min · starts 42%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~40 minutes: starts 42% of his matches (~68 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.28/90 over 28 apps → model prices 2.10/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.62/90 over 28 apps → model prices 3.71/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.59/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.11/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.57/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Randy NtekaMIDRayo Vallecano~41 min · starts 51%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 51% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.45/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.04/90 over 18 apps → model prices 2.02/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.75/90 over 18 apps → model prices 3.56/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.11/90 over 18 apps → model prices 2.55/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nobel MendyDEFRayo Vallecano~75 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.57/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.91/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.52/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.62/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.48/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pathé CissMIDRayo Vallecano~67 min · starts 73%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 73% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.87/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.82/90 over 51 apps → model prices 1.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.60/90 over 51 apps → model prices 2.12/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.43/90 over 51 apps → model prices 0.45/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 51 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alfonso EspinoDEF~50 min · starts 52%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 52% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.09/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.48/90 over 28 apps → model prices 2.10/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.69/90 over 28 apps → model prices 2.38/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Andrei RațiuDEFRayo Vallecano~84 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~84 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.70/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.95/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.65/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.97/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Unai LópezMIDRayo Vallecano~56 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.36/90 over 43 apps → model prices 0.37/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.81/90 over 43 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.43/90 over 43 apps → model prices 2.05/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.25/90 over 43 apps → model prices 2.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 43 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Fran PérezFWDRayo Vallecano~43 min · starts 41%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~43 minutes: starts 41% of his matches (~66 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.24/90 over 17 apps → model prices 2.03/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.05/90 over 17 apps → model prices 2.72/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.31/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.88/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pep ChavarríaDEFRayo Vallecano~79 min · starts 85%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 85% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.07/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.48/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.97/90 over 59 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 59 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 59 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Abdul MuminDEF~78 min · starts 93%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~78 minutes: starts 93% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.13/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.39/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.96/90 over 24 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.57/90 over 24 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 24 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Iván BalliuDEFRayo Vallecano~46 min · starts 46%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~46 minutes: starts 46% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.34/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.00/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.56/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.24/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.61/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.42/90 over 20 apps → model prices 2.05/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Oscar TrejoMID~24 min · starts 27%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~24 minutes: starts 27% of his matches (~62 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 7 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.90/90 over 7 apps → model prices 3.75/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.83/90 over 7 apps → model prices 2.90/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.28/90 over 7 apps → model prices 3.52/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 7 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luiz FelipeDEFRayo Vallecano~47 min · starts 70%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 70% of his matches (~63 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.21/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.63/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.04/90 over 6 apps → model prices 1.60/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 6 apps → model prices 0.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 6 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.