Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Getafe v Racing Santander · La Liga · Sunday 23 August at 18:30 · 113 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Martín SatrianoFWD~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.93/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.14/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.29/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.86/90 over 14 apps → model prices 3.31/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.64/90 over 14 apps → model prices 2.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Christantus Ugonna UcheFWDGetafe~77 min · starts 92%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 92% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~34 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.16/90 over 36 apps → model prices 3.30/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.82/90 over 36 apps → model prices 2.37/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 36 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.68/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.21/90 over 36 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 36 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
David Soria SolísGKGetafe~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.08/90 over 76 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 76 apps → model prices 0.05/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.64/90 over 76 apps → model prices 2.67/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 76 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Adrian Liso LahozFWD~61 min · starts 68%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 68% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 3.43/90 over 19 apps → model prices 2.59/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.70/90 over 19 apps → model prices 3.51/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.90/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.40/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.51/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.96/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.86/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Borja Mayoral MoyaFWDGetafe~54 min · starts 48%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 48% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.33/90 over 40 apps → model prices 3.64/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.05/90 over 40 apps → model prices 2.10/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.83/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.66/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alex Sola López OcañaFWD~52 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~52 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~69 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 1.09/90 over 16 apps → model prices 3.57/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.12/90 over 16 apps → model prices 2.56/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.61/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.89/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.30/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.13/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Coba Gomes da CostaFWD~42 min · starts 45%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 45% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.13/90 over 22 apps → model prices 2.50/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.57/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.88/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.09/90 over 22 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.47/90 over 22 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.97/90 over 22 apps → model prices 3.78/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 22 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Juan Miguel Jiménez LópezFWDGetafe~41 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~41 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~75 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.43/90 over 21 apps → model prices 2.00/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.08/90 over 21 apps → model prices 3.83/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.95/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.50/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.36/90 over 21 apps → model prices 2.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mauro Wilney Arambarri RosaMID~82 min · starts 94%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 94% of his matches (~86 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.59/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.62/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 52 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.64/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.83/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.78/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.89/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.83/90 over 52 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 52 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ramón Terrats EspacioMIDGetafe~82 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~82 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.33/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.77/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.04/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.02/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.10/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alejandro San Cristóbal SánchezFWDGetafe~39 min · starts 28%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 28% of his matches (~74 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.59/90 over 18 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.12/90 over 18 apps → model prices 2.00/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.49/90 over 18 apps → model prices 2.41/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.44/90 over 18 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.34/90 over 18 apps → model prices 3.77/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 18 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Allan Romeo NyomDEF~42 min · starts 48%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~42 minutes: starts 48% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~10 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.36/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.14/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.62/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Cards: career 3.62/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.60/90 for this match
Fouls: career 10.70/90 over 29 apps → model prices 3.34/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mario Martín RielvesMIDGetafe~61 min · starts 74%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 74% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~31 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 2.01/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.88/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.35/90 over 35 apps → model prices 1.84/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.86/90 over 35 apps → model prices 2.07/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.46/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.50/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.78/90 over 35 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 35 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Diego Rico SalgueroDEF~77 min · starts 87%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 87% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.05/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.41/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.26/90 over 46 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.44/90 over 46 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 46 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Domingos Sousa Coutinho Meneses DuarteDEF~86 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~86 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~9 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.12/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.32/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.72/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.98/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.33/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.27/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.27/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.70/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Zaid Abner RomeroDEFGetafe~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.67/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.73/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.13/90 over 15 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.80/90 over 15 apps → model prices 1.01/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 15 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Djené Dakonam OrtegaDEFGetafe~79 min · starts 97%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~79 minutes: starts 97% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.44/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.34/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.16/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.64/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.86/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.52/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 65 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Abdelkabir AbqarDEFGetafe~63 min · starts 74%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~63 minutes: starts 74% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.48/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.80/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.06/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.80/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.48/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.45/90 over 23 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.53/90 over 23 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 23 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Francisco Femenía FarDEFGetafe~72 min · starts 89%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 89% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~34 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 0.24/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.76/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.86/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.26/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.45/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.95/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.24/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.06/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
David Cordón ManchaDEFGetafe~50 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 3.67/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.72/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.29/90 over 14 apps → model prices 1.04/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.39/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.25/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.83/90 over 14 apps → model prices 0.27/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 14 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Juan Berrocal GonzálezDEFGetafe~56 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 1.17/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.06/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.31/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.73/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Javier Muñoz JiménezMIDGetafe~33 min · starts 24%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 24% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.66/90 over 17 apps → model prices 1.81/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.23/90 over 17 apps → model prices 2.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.28/90 over 17 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.55/90 over 17 apps → model prices 2.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 17 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Juan Sebastián Boselli GrafDEFGetafe~34 min · starts 36%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~34 minutes: starts 36% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~8 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.66/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.00/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Fouls: career 3.61/90 over 11 apps → model prices 1.87/90 for this match
Cards: career 4.27/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 2.05/90 over 11 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 11 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.