Bet builder
Tackles are deliberately absent: books settle them on a definition our data does not record — see the publication rules. Cards price any card being shown, yellow or red; shots on target is the shots model thinned by each player’s own on-target rate — both re-passed the calibration gate that once benched them (see the methodology page).
Same-game combinations priced by simulation, not by multiplying legs. Legs in one match move together — a player’s minutes carry all his markets, possession pushes one team’s shots up and the other’s tackles down — so each fixture is simulated 10,000 times and a slip’s price is how often all its legs landed. How the simulation works is on the methodology page.
Deportivo Alavés v Villarreal · La Liga · Friday 28 August at 20:30 · 184 priceable legs from 10,000 simulated matches
Arnau Tenas UreñaGKVillarreal~90 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~90 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Saves: career 3.00/90 over 10 apps → model prices 3.09/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.06/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.10/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Luiz Lúcio Reis JúniorGKVillarreal~88 min · starts 98%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 98% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.11/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.08/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.76/90 over 45 apps → model prices 3.05/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.22/90 over 45 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 45 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Antonio Sivera SalváGKDeportivo Alavés~89 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~89 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.11/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.09/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.12/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Saves: career 2.44/90 over 70 apps → model prices 2.33/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 70 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Carlos Vicente RoblesFWD~83 min · starts 90%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 90% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.59/90 over 20 apps → model prices 2.13/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.91/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.66/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.04/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Angel Pérez HidalgoFWDDeportivo Alavés~81 min · starts 88%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~81 minutes: starts 88% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~29 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.20/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.51/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.62/90 over 16 apps → model prices 0.77/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.26/90 over 16 apps → model prices 2.17/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.07/90 over 16 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 16 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Lucas Ariel BoyéFWDDeportivo Alavés~68 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.10/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.06/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.66/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.59/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.96/90 over 29 apps → model prices 2.37/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.20/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Antonio Martínez LópezFWDDeportivo Alavés~58 min · starts 63%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~58 minutes: starts 63% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 3.53/90 over 65 apps → model prices 2.60/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.96/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.65/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.26/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.96/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.13/90 over 65 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.05/90 over 65 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 65 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Georges MikautadzeFWDVillarreal~66 min · starts 72%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~66 minutes: starts 72% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.72/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.23/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.11/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.83/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.94/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.85/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.42/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.83/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.03/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Abderrahman RebbachFWDDeportivo Alavés~50 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~50 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~76 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.89/90 over 38 apps → model prices 0.86/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.88/90 over 38 apps → model prices 2.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.48/90 over 38 apps → model prices 2.44/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.08/90 over 38 apps → model prices 1.46/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 38 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pape GueyeMIDVillarreal~68 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~68 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~79 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.67/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.19/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.62/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.42/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.34/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.31/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 64 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Alberto Moleiro GonzálezFWDVillarreal~67 min · starts 81%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~67 minutes: starts 81% of his matches (~78 when he starts, ~22 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots: career 2.07/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.73/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.77/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.71/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.15/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.15/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.57/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Antonio Blanco CondeMIDDeportivo Alavés~83 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~83 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~85 when he starts, ~19 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.09/90 over 71 apps → model prices 1.36/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.05/90 over 71 apps → model prices 1.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.96/90 over 71 apps → model prices 1.08/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.23/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.29/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.33/90 over 71 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 71 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nicolas PépéFWDVillarreal~61 min · starts 64%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~61 minutes: starts 64% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~24 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.18/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.89/90 over 64 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.32/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.62/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.36/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.80/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.34/90 over 64 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 64 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ayoze Pérez GutiérrezFWDVillarreal~56 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~56 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.17/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.20/90 over 55 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.73/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.79/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.79/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.89/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.06/90 over 55 apps → model prices 1.29/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 55 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Gerard Moreno BalagueroFWDVillarreal~53 min · starts 56%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~53 minutes: starts 56% of his matches (~72 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.00/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.24/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.69/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.09/90 over 39 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.95/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.33/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.77/90 over 39 apps → model prices 1.91/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 39 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pablo Ibáñez LumbrerasMIDDeportivo Alavés~62 min · starts 76%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~62 minutes: starts 76% of his matches (~73 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.67/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.84/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.42/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.61/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.44/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.46/90 over 37 apps → model prices 1.59/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.26/90 over 37 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 37 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Santiago Comesaña VeigaMIDVillarreal~72 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~82 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.29/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.25/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.04/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.42/90 over 69 apps → model prices 1.35/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.74/90 over 69 apps → model prices 0.99/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 69 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Álvaro Santiago Mouriño GonzálezDEFVillarreal~85 min · starts 96%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~85 minutes: starts 96% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~44 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.37/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.20/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.58/90 over 28 apps → model prices 1.14/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.60/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.18/90 over 28 apps → model prices 0.88/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 28 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tajon BuchananFWDVillarreal~48 min · starts 53%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~48 minutes: starts 53% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.56/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.63/90 over 47 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 2.34/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.95/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.34/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.69/90 over 47 apps → model prices 1.53/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 47 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Carles Aleña CastilloMIDDeportivo Alavés~65 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~65 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~77 when he starts, ~26 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.31/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.21/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.73/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.39/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.22/90 over 48 apps → model prices 0.30/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.35/90 over 48 apps → model prices 1.31/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 48 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ilias Akhomach ChakkourFWDVillarreal~39 min · starts 45%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~39 minutes: starts 45% of his matches (~65 when he starts, ~17 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 3.40/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.95/90 for this match
Shots: career 2.72/90 over 20 apps → model prices 2.03/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.62/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 3.90/90 over 20 apps → model prices 2.29/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.07/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Moussa DiarraDEFDeportivo Alavés~72 min · starts 79%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~72 minutes: starts 79% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~15 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.05/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.78/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.03/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls: career 2.84/90 over 29 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.00/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Cards: career 1.74/90 over 29 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 29 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Daniel Parejo MuñozMID~57 min · starts 58%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 58% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~25 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.25/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.43/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.19/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.90/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.06/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.28/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.30/90 over 19 apps → model prices 1.49/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.21/90 over 19 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 19 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Jonathan Castro OttoDEFDeportivo Alavés~88 min · starts 100%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 100% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.09/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.13/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.26/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.46/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.13/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.94/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.90/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Juan Marcos FoythDEFVillarreal~77 min · starts 91%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 91% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.19/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.16/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.15/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.05/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Sergi Cardona BermúdezDEFVillarreal~75 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~75 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.27/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.89/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.82/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.30/90 over 66 apps → model prices 1.09/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.17/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.62/90 over 66 apps → model prices 0.41/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 66 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Renato Palma VeigaDEFVillarreal~77 min · starts 84%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 84% of his matches (~88 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.61/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.20/90 over 32 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.58/90 over 32 apps → model prices 1.03/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 32 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Mariano Díaz MejíaFWDDeportivo Alavés~28 min · starts 30%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~28 minutes: starts 30% of his matches (~57 when he starts, ~16 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 5.39/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.87/90 for this match
Shots: career 3.70/90 over 10 apps → model prices 2.78/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.81/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.00/90 over 10 apps → model prices 1.71/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.20/90 over 10 apps → model prices 0.23/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 10 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Nahuel TenagliaDEFDeportivo Alavés~88 min · starts 99%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~88 minutes: starts 99% of his matches (~89 when he starts, ~18 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.22/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.74/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.54/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.00/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.89/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.28/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.85/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.24/90 over 70 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 70 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Pau Navarro BadenesDEFVillarreal~71 min · starts 78%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~71 minutes: starts 78% of his matches (~81 when he starts, ~36 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.57/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.75/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.06/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.10/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.09/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.35/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.29/90 over 40 apps → model prices 1.10/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.19/90 over 40 apps → model prices 0.17/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 40 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Logan CostaDEFVillarreal~77 min · starts 82%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~77 minutes: starts 82% of his matches (~87 when he starts, ~28 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 0.09/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.65/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.80/90 over 34 apps → model prices 1.00/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.18/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.12/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.38/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.38/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.06/90 over 34 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 34 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Facundo Tomás GarcésDEFDeportivo Alavés~73 min · starts 75%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~73 minutes: starts 75% of his matches (~90 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.25/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.18/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.35/90 over 20 apps → model prices 1.02/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.77/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.53/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.25/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.68/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.37/90 over 20 apps → model prices 0.16/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 20 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Ander Guevara LajoMIDDeportivo Alavés~45 min · starts 38%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~45 minutes: starts 38% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Cards: career 0.37/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Fouls: career 1.94/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.58/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.08/90 over 58 apps → model prices 0.33/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.04/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.25/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.64/90 over 58 apps → model prices 1.15/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 58 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Denis Suárez FernándezMIDDeportivo Alavés~47 min · starts 50%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~47 minutes: starts 50% of his matches (~70 when he starts, ~23 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Shots on target: career 0.58/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.40/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.67/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.41/90 for this match
Fouls: career 0.90/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.47/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.44/90 over 30 apps → model prices 1.22/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.59/90 over 30 apps → model prices 0.24/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 30 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Tani OluwaseyiFWDVillarreal~33 min · starts 33%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~33 minutes: starts 33% of his matches (~71 when he starts, ~14 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 2.27/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.78/90 for this match
Shots: career 1.94/90 over 27 apps → model prices 2.00/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.84/90 over 27 apps → model prices 1.97/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 1.25/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.79/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.04/90 over 27 apps → model prices 0.22/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 27 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Youssef Enríquez LekhedimDEFDeportivo Alavés~54 min · starts 52%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~54 minutes: starts 52% of his matches (~83 when he starts, ~21 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 1.61/90 over 25 apps → model prices 1.16/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 1.06/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.81/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.64/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.55/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.32/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.15/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.41/90 over 25 apps → model prices 0.21/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 25 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Willy KambwalaDEFVillarreal~57 min · starts 62%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~57 minutes: starts 62% of his matches (~80 when he starts, ~20 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls: career 0.37/90 over 21 apps → model prices 1.07/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.19/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.39/90 for this match
Fouls won: career 0.00/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.73/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.05/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.11/90 for this match
Cards: career 0.23/90 over 21 apps → model prices 0.19/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 21 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Carlos Nahuel Benavídez ProtesoniMIDDeportivo Alavés~26 min · starts 29%
why these numbers ▸
Projected ~26 minutes: starts 29% of his matches (~58 when he starts, ~13 as a sub). A sub appearance still settles an over — only a no-show voids it.
Fouls won: career 1.22/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.45/90 for this match
Fouls: career 4.10/90 over 31 apps → model prices 2.22/90 for this match
Shots: career 0.93/90 over 31 apps → model prices 1.38/90 for this match
Shots on target: career 0.25/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.47/90 for this match
Cards: career 1.06/90 over 31 apps → model prices 0.32/90 for this match
Small samples are shrunk toward players in the same role and league — 31 appearances is weighted evidence, not gospel — and the opponent, venue and referee move the number from there.
Why no bookmaker prices? Same-game builder prices are proprietary — no odds feed carries them, and this page will not pretend to compare what it cannot see. The margin audit is the honest version: the one price that matters is the one your book quoted you, and you have it.
Every projection behind these simulations is currently provisional — no lineups are published yet, so minutes are estimated from start rates. A slip priced today can move when lineups land. Fair prices describe the model’s opinion, not a guarantee; every slip price is shown with its 95% simulation band, which widens as slips get longer — a long acca’s price rests on the few hundred simulations where every leg landed, and the band says exactly how few that is.
Slips are priced as if every named player takes part, because that is how the bet settles: UK books void a leg on a player who takes no part and re-price the rest, so the as-if-all-run number is the one your re-priced slip is actually comparable to. A player’s simulated minutes still split between starting and a bench cameo — only the no-show branch is treated as the refund it is.